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ALSI Trades


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#28581 Sunesis

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 09:40 AM

I am expecting a green day this Monday morning I think -   but a pull back later in week of SP500 to 1740 'ish taking our T40spot with - but this should present another Dip Buy

- opinions please.

I'm done for the day. All my longs from last week took profits.

 

 

Viva La Bull came early morning


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#28582 OceanWalz

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 07:59 AM

I am expecting a green day this Monday morning I think -   but a pull back later in week of SP500 to 1740 'ish taking our T40spot with - but this should present another Dip Buy

- opinions please.


Edited by OceanWalz, 28 October 2013 - 08:01 AM.

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#28583 Sunesis

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 01:08 AM

US Stock Market "The Wall Of Worry "

 

Traders and investors all around the world is having trouble climbing over the wall of worry/fear with the US stock market, and rightly so. There is a lot of things taking place and unfolding that carry a high level of uncertainty. Let’s face it, who wants to invest money into the market when it’s hard to come by (high unemployment, banks are still extremely tight with their money, companies are nowhere near wanting to hiring new staff).

The hard pill to swallow is the fact that the stock market loves to rise when uncertainty is high. It’s almost doing it just to drive investor’s nuts who sold out near market bottom or recent correction. You must overcome the urge to short the market when the economy looks so bearish in the years ahead, and continue to trade with the trend.

 

Short Term Investing – Weekly Volatility Index Chart

Below you can see the fear index. The chart is self-explanatory showing where it should move next. But if you are not familiar with the VIX then here is definition by investopedia:

 

“The first VIX, introduced by the CBOE in 1993, was a weighted measure of the implied volatility of eight S&P 100 at-the-money put and call options. Ten years later, it expanded to use options based on a broader index, the S&P 500, which allows for a more accurate view of investors’ expectations on future market volatility. VIX values greater than 30 are generally associated with a large amount of volatility as a result of investor fear or uncertainty, while values below 20 generally correspond to less stressful, even complacent, times in the markets.”

VixBottom1.png

 

Weekly Investing Chart of the SP500 Index

After reviewing the VIX chart above which points to stocks nearing a level of selling pressure, then review the chart below we come to a conclusion that a minor pullback of 2-5% is likely to take place in the next week ortwo.

The divergence in the Relative Strength Index is a bearish sign for the broad market. While I feel a pullback is do and needed for the market to regroup, it is important to review the seasonality chart and know that we are entering one the strongest times of the year for stocks.

SP500Divergence.png

 

SP500 Seasonality Chart

Again, using the data from the previous two charts along with this graph clearly shows that a pullback in the stocks is likely going to be bought back up by the brave investors willing to override their fear and go with the trend. 

 SP-Seasonality.gif

 

The Wall Of Worry Conclusion:

In short, expect the stock market to correct in the next week or two. But once we get a correction of two percent or more, be prepared for buyers to step back in and buy things up into year end.

 

This WALL OF WORRY is about to GET HIGHER!


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#28584 davidp13

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Posted 27 October 2013 - 05:06 PM

Very interesting discussions. Keep up the good work.
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#28585 Plasma

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 07:36 AM


Correct on the not charging as long your make at least 3 trades a month. The after hours liquidity i would say is about 80%-90% . If you keep trying a minute or 2 later your are bound to sell your contract. However the minute you get on IG you learn that trading is no more a sit back and watch kind of thing. It becomes a 24 hour thing (on weekdays only) ! You will find yourself up at midnight, sometimes at 3 am and people will wonder what the hell you are doing at that hour of the night.

Hehe. I rather be trading at night than what I do now. These limited hours are affecting my day job.

One other thing. What brokerage fee do they charge? SBOT charges R14 per a contract.

Brokerage embedded in spread.

Lol..had the same day job issues....now on a much better footing....
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#28586 joker

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 07:10 AM

Correct on the not charging as long your make at least 3 trades a month. The after hours liquidity i would say is about 80%-90% . If you keep trying a minute or 2 later your are bound to sell your contract. However the minute you get on IG you learn that trading is no more a sit back and watch kind of thing. It becomes a 24 hour thing (on weekdays only) !  You will find yourself up at midnight, sometimes at  3 am and people will wonder what the hell you are doing at that hour of the night.

Hehe. I rather be trading at night than what I do now. These limited hours are affecting my day job.

 

One other thing. What brokerage fee do they charge? SBOT charges R14 per a contract.


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#28587 Mad Max

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 08:51 PM

Thanks Rockstar. I'll open up a demo account. So if I understand correctly, IG opens two accounts, domestic and international, and they don't charge any maintenance fee for them, as long as you're not inactive? 

 

And how liquid are the ALSI contracts after hours?

Correct on the not charging as long your make at least 3 trades a month. The after hours liquidity i would say is about 80%-90% . If you keep trying a minute or 2 later your are bound to sell your contract. However the minute you get on IG you learn that trading is no more a sit back and watch kind of thing. It becomes a 24 hour thing (on weekdays only) !  You will find yourself up at midnight, sometimes at  3 am and people will wonder what the hell you are doing at that hour of the night.


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#28588 joker

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 08:41 PM

Thanks Rockstar. I'll open up a demo account. So if I understand correctly, IG opens two accounts, domestic and international, and they don't charge any maintenance fee for them, as long as you're not inactive? 

 

And how liquid are the ALSI contracts after hours?


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#28589 Mad Max

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 07:50 PM

I trade with Standard Bank. Are they the only broker who don't have after hour trading on the ALSI?

No, there are lots of them . IG  markets(and maybe Sharenet via IG)  are the only ones that  that trade the Top40 Futures almost 24 hours . They kind of close at 23:15 until midnight. Anyway look at IG as they have different margin rates for their contracts  (R280 ( R2 for every point) , R1400 ( R10 for every point)  and R7000 (R50 for every point) , you make or lose) . I tried the STD bank thing but was not impressed with the R38000 margin for the R10 for every point contract.


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#28590 joker

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 06:56 PM

If you can hang on until 9:50 pm and make a profit then do so and close it. Else why pay them interest for the weekend when there is no trading.

I trade with Standard Bank. Are they the only broker who don't have after hour trading on the ALSI?


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#28591 Mad Max

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 05:14 PM

The question is keep the long for the weekend or close the position. 40 minutes to decide.

If you can hang on until 9:50 pm and make a profit then do so and close it. Else why pay them interest for the weekend when there is no trading.


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#28592 joker

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 04:49 PM

The question is keep the long for the weekend or close the position. 40 minutes to decide.


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#28593 Sunesis

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 04:11 PM

Another very good analyst David Petch called for the US indexes top in March/April next year, and then a good leg down to commence, this makes sense if you take QE in consideration as well.

 

Charts still showing good upside into year end, although it could be zig zag, think November is going to live up to its reputation for a 800+ point pullback, but should probably break out to the upside only next week first!

 

Must say was of a view this bull would top this year, but charts showing up and that means more mula, hate anyway being on the short side!

 

Viva la bull indeed!! :P

 

A

I was reading a bit on David Petch articles on his website. His cycles are the same as historians predictions. Maybe they see the same thing using different ways.

 

I just think for now we are taking a breather because of the China Shibor rate sagga.

Once that is sorted, we continue higher. Lets see what next week holds.

 

Enjoy your weekend.

 

Viva La Bull :P  :P  :P  :P  :P


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#28594 Sunesis

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 03:11 PM

The British Pound is a risk currency. It rises when the market is risk on.

A look at the activity economic activity lately. With the Japanese and US printing money at record levels, all that money will run to British, Europe, and EM Market stocks.

 

 

UK-Charts-Superty-Oct-25-530x306.jpg


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#28595 Sunesis

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 02:52 PM

Stocks affecting ALSI

 

Stock UP

 

BAT

SAB

BHP

 

Stocks Down

 

MTN

Firstrand

Standard Bank

Sasol

Naspers

Anglo

 

Why we are lagging the US stock market.

 

China stock market closed down today also. Maybe a good setup for the 28th to 6 November Bull


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#28596 Sunesis

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 02:35 PM

Apple, Microsoft,Oracle,Amazon,Intel,Cisco are up before NASDAQ opens.

 

They make up around 40% of the NASDAQ 100 stocks. This is a good setup for an all time high.

 

Plus we have Apple numbers on Monday. Apple has the biggest weight in the whole index.

 

Its's a very bullish setup


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#28597 Argento

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 02:34 PM

I would just like it to at least go up until January next year. From there it can crash, i would not care at all.

We need at least a 25% drop.

More than 20% would be a bear market

Another very good analyst David Petch called for the US indexes top in March/April next year, and then a good leg down to commence, this makes sense if you take QE in consideration as well.

 

Charts still showing good upside into year end, although it could be zig zag, think November is going to live up to its reputation for a 800+ point pullback, but should probably break out to the upside only next week first!

 

Must say was of a view this bull would top this year, but charts showing up and that means more mula, hate anyway being on the short side!

 

Viva la bull indeed!! :P

 

A


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#28598 Sunesis

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 02:16 PM

As Livingstone said..one needs to size up the market!

 

This long term chart pretty bullish...but know at some stage she will make a return move to the 1576 level again (island top in the making?), but still got some nice upside left into next year.

 

Wonder if that is not the correction coming next year, should have about 20% in it!

 

Then bulls will march on...interesting times!

 

A

I would just like it to at least go up until January next year. From there it can crash, i would not care at all.

We need at least a 25% drop.

More than 20% would be a bear market


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No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than..speculation.


#28599 Argento

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 02:08 PM

From 1600, the S&P is starting another era of a long bull run, this shows us that we have surpassed history and now making our own

 

MW-BN557_201310_20131022092518_NS.gif?uu

 

As Livingstone said..one needs to size up the market!

 

This long term chart pretty bullish...but know at some stage she will make a return move to the 1576 level again (island top in the making?), but still got some nice upside left into next year.

 

Wonder if that is not the correction coming next year, should have about 20% in it!

 

Then bulls will march on...interesting times!

 

A


Edited by Argento, 25 October 2013 - 02:09 PM.

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#28600 Sunesis

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 01:59 PM

From 1600, the S&P is starting another era of a long bull run, this shows us that we have surpassed history and now making our own

 

MW-BN557_201310_20131022092518_NS.gif?uu


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No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than..speculation.






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