35854 replies to this topic

[Sunesis]

Apple, Microsoft,Oracle,Amazon,Intel,Cisco are up before NASDAQ opens.

 

They make up around 40% of the NASDAQ 100 stocks. This is a good setup for an all time high.

 

Plus we have Apple numbers on Monday. Apple has the biggest weight in the whole index.

 

Its's a very bullish setup

[Argento]

I would just like it to at least go up until January next year. From there it can crash, i would not care at all.

We need at least a 25% drop.

More than 20% would be a bear market

Another very good analyst David Petch called for the US indexes top in March/April next year, and then a good leg down to commence, this makes sense if you take QE in consideration as well.

 

Charts still showing good upside into year end, although it could be zig zag, think November is going to live up to its reputation for a 800+ point pullback, but should probably break out to the upside only next week first!

 

Must say was of a view this bull would top this year, but charts showing up and that means more mula, hate anyway being on the short side!

 

Viva la bull indeed!!

 

A

[Sunesis]

As Livingstone said..one needs to size up the market!

 

This long term chart pretty bullish...but know at some stage she will make a return move to the 1576 level again (island top in the making?), but still got some nice upside left into next year.

 

Wonder if that is not the correction coming next year, should have about 20% in it!

 

Then bulls will march on...interesting times!

 

A

I would just like it to at least go up until January next year. From there it can crash, i would not care at all.

We need at least a 25% drop.

More than 20% would be a bear market

[Argento]

From 1600, the S&P is starting another era of a long bull run, this shows us that we have surpassed history and now making our own

 

 

As Livingstone said..one needs to size up the market!

 

This long term chart pretty bullish...but know at some stage she will make a return move to the 1576 level again (island top in the making?), but still got some nice upside left into next year.

 

Wonder if that is not the correction coming next year, should have about 20% in it!

 

Then bulls will march on...interesting times!

 

A

Edited by Argento, 25 October 2013 - 02:09 PM.

[Sunesis]

From 1600, the S&P is starting another era of a long bull run, this shows us that we have surpassed history and now making our own

 

[CJV002]

Which website is best to view ROE's realtime?  eg ZAR/USD ect

[Sunesis]

I think I made a calculation a few weeks ago. If you trade the FTSE 100 cash you would get 3 times the return with the same money we trade on the SA TOP 40 cash.  If you trade the Wall street Cash you would get double the returns. At some point when I have enough cash I will start playing the FTSE .  The only problem with IG is that you cannot have the Domestic and International windows open at the same time .

I'm cashing in with the NASDAQ and DAX today. ALSI is in profit but boring.

 

Just use another broker and have 2 platforms. Oanda is the best or Hotforex

 

 

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Money Money Money $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[Mad Max]

Bulls grab the market by the B*lls

 

News to cheer US trend followers. Since 1995, S&P 500 rose 16 times from Oct 28 to Nov 6 vs 2 dips

 

For those who are trading the ALSI only, get yourself a international platform. You are missing out on big money.

 

Viva La Bull        

 

1920 days are here 

You only live once

I think I made a calculation a few weeks ago. If you trade the FTSE 100 cash you would get 3 times the return with the same money we trade on the SA TOP 40 cash.  If you trade the Wall street Cash you would get double the returns. At some point when I have enough cash I will start playing the FTSE .  The only problem with IG is that you cannot have the Domestic and International windows open at the same time .

[Sunesis]

Bulls grab the market by the B*lls

 

News to cheer US trend followers. Since 1995, S&P 500 rose 16 times from Oct 28 to Nov 6 vs 2 dips

 

For those who are trading the ALSI only, get yourself a international platform. You are missing out on big money.

 

Viva La Bull        

 

1920 days are here 

You only live once

[K~~]

I use market history.

 

You should read book,  "The Master Trader"-  by Laszlo Birinyi and "Trading Secrets"-  by David Schwartz

 

According to history this bull market is a longer one, same as the 1990 one which only ended after 8 years.

 

According to Birinyi:

 

The Kennedy bull market of 1962, which lasted slightly more than 3-1/2 years and returned 79.8%, to the monster bull of the 1990s, which went on for nearly eight years and saw the S&P quadruple.

 

The average return of those five bull markets was 167.5%. The current bull’s gain of 153% is close to that, but at 4-1/2 years, it has lasted a year less than the recent bull market average. Birinyi thinks this bull still has the juice to keep going.

 

Birinyi thinks investors have only begun to dump bonds and warm to U.S. stocks. In fact, he says, the lack of obvious euphoria may actually extend this bull market’s life. If you look historically, the first and last phases are where you make most of your gains,” he told me. “We still have the potential for a good rally

 

We still haven’t gotten to the year 2000“ level of euphoria, he said. “I think once you get to the point where you have a page-one story, that’s where you get a good surge.” Or maybe when it makes the cover of Time magazine.

 

“That’s what I call capitulation, which I see at market tops” as well as bottoms, he said. And because we haven’t seen it yet, does that mean the bull market could go on for another year or two.

And consider this: The S&P needs to gain only 18% more to reach 2,000. The Dow is a more distant 30% away from the even more magical number of 20,000, which would almost certainly prompt many fence sitters to jump back into stocks.

 

But if the S&P hits 2,000, that would mean a total market gain of 195.6% from its March 2009 closing low of 676.53, putting this bull market among the very best of the last 50 years.

 

Back in 2011, Birinyi said S&P 2,800 was the “best case” and 2,100 a “more probable” scenario

 

We’re at the point now, he said, where reluctant investors have started to jump in again.

 

I have been following Birinyi since 2009, most of the trades which i lost, i was on the short side.

 

Here is an article which Birinyi predicted S&P bottom in 2008, this proves market history probably works. Most so called experts did not believe him: http://www.boglehead...ic.php?p=343132

 

Here is an article which Birinyi predicted S&P 1700 by 2013: http://www.dailyfina...-1-700-by-2012/

Look at the dates on those articles.

 

From now until around March 2014 the market will be bullish. From March to October bearish. The next bull wave will be end of 2014.

 

I will jump out around end of February 2014, That's when i will take a holiday and come back in June 2014.
 

Most bull markets which have a higher 1st Quater percentage start tend to last longer, look at the chart below

 

Very insightful, thanks S!

 

Also, anticipate the start of the QE taper around March 2014, which should make for some blood on the streets...

 

K

[Sunesis]

Elloit Wave from Gregor Horvat my favourite daily analyst

 

The stocks futures market is sideways for the past two or three trading days which we think it represents a corrective pause with ongoing uptrend. On the S&P Futures hourly chart we track the idea of a triangle that suggest a break up in wave (v) towards 1760/1770. Move may occur already today, or early next week.
S&P Futures 1h

On some popular FX pairs we also anticipate more USD weakness, particularly on EURUSD and AUDUSD. On AUDUSD we are looking at wave 4 that should find a support soon, but we however don’t want to jump in for wave 5 up too early. We need a confirming price action first. In other words we need impulsive rally back to 0.9670. If we do not get this rally, then we will just simply stay aside.

AUDUSD 1h

[Argento]

I use market history.

 

You should read book,  "The Master Trader"-  by Laszlo Birinyi and "Trading Secrets"-  by David Schwartz

 

According to history this bull market is a longer one, same as the 1990 one which only ended after 8 years.

 

According to Birinyi:

 

The Kennedy bull market of 1962, which lasted slightly more than 3-1/2 years and returned 79.8%, to the monster bull of the 1990s, which went on for nearly eight years and saw the S&P quadruple.

 

The average return of those five bull markets was 167.5%. The current bull’s gain of 153% is close to that, but at 4-1/2 years, it has lasted a year less than the recent bull market average. Birinyi thinks this bull still has the juice to keep going.

 

Birinyi thinks investors have only begun to dump bonds and warm to U.S. stocks. In fact, he says, the lack of obvious euphoria may actually extend this bull market’s life. If you look historically, the first and last phases are where you make most of your gains,” he told me. “We still have the potential for a good rally

 

We still haven’t gotten to the year 2000“ level of euphoria, he said. “I think once you get to the point where you have a page-one story, that’s where you get a good surge.” Or maybe when it makes the cover of Time magazine.

 

“That’s what I call capitulation, which I see at market tops” as well as bottoms, he said. And because we haven’t seen it yet, does that mean the bull market could go on for another year or two.

And consider this: The S&P needs to gain only 18% more to reach 2,000. The Dow is a more distant 30% away from the even more magical number of 20,000, which would almost certainly prompt many fence sitters to jump back into stocks.

 

But if the S&P hits 2,000, that would mean a total market gain of 195.6% from its March 2009 closing low of 676.53, putting this bull market among the very best of the last 50 years.

 

Back in 2011, Birinyi said S&P 2,800 was the “best case” and 2,100 a “more probable” scenario

 

We’re at the point now, he said, where reluctant investors have started to jump in again.

 

I have been following Birinyi since 2009, most of the trades which i lost, i was on the short side.

 

Here is an article which Birinyi predicted S&P bottom in 2008, this proves market history probably works. Most so called experts did not believe him: http://www.boglehead...ic.php?p=343132

 

Here is an article which Birinyi predicted S&P 1700 by 2013: http://www.dailyfina...-1-700-by-2012/

Look at the dates on those articles.

 

From now until around March 2014 the market will be bullish. From March to October bearish. The next bull wave will be end of 2014.

 

I will jump out around end of February 2014, That's when i will take a holiday and come back in June 2014.
 

Most bull markets which have a higher 1st Quater percentage start tend to last longer, look at the chart below

Good stuff!

 

Thanks for the info, much appreciated!

 

A

[Sunesis]

Hi S,

 

What is you view on next year? We should at some point see a decent correction (10,000 points+).

 

Most bullmarkets mature after 5 years and don't know if you have heard about the Kress cycle (40yr down), know some guys don't follow/believe cycles but have seen some play out nicely.

 

My TA suggest we are in the process of starting a topping process/pattern (but still good upside left) for that correction to kick off in January!

 

Monthly MACD's very overbought together with the PE ratio's!

 

A

I use market history.

 

You should read book,  "The Master Trader"-  by Laszlo Birinyi and "Trading Secrets"-  by David Schwartz

 

According to history this bull market is a longer one, same as the 1990 one which only ended after 8 years.

 

According to Birinyi:

 

The Kennedy bull market of 1962, which lasted slightly more than 3-1/2 years and returned 79.8%, to the monster bull of the 1990s, which went on for nearly eight years and saw the S&P quadruple.

 

The average return of those five bull markets was 167.5%. The current bull’s gain of 153% is close to that, but at 4-1/2 years, it has lasted a year less than the recent bull market average. Birinyi thinks this bull still has the juice to keep going.

 

Birinyi thinks investors have only begun to dump bonds and warm to U.S. stocks. In fact, he says, the lack of obvious euphoria may actually extend this bull market’s life. If you look historically, the first and last phases are where you make most of your gains,” he told me. “We still have the potential for a good rally

 

We still haven’t gotten to the year 2000“ level of euphoria, he said. “I think once you get to the point where you have a page-one story, that’s where you get a good surge.” Or maybe when it makes the cover of Time magazine.

 

“That’s what I call capitulation, which I see at market tops” as well as bottoms, he said. And because we haven’t seen it yet, does that mean the bull market could go on for another year or two.

And consider this: The S&P needs to gain only 18% more to reach 2,000. The Dow is a more distant 30% away from the even more magical number of 20,000, which would almost certainly prompt many fence sitters to jump back into stocks.

 

But if the S&P hits 2,000, that would mean a total market gain of 195.6% from its March 2009 closing low of 676.53, putting this bull market among the very best of the last 50 years.

 

Back in 2011, Birinyi said S&P 2,800 was the “best case” and 2,100 a “more probable” scenario

 

We’re at the point now, he said, where reluctant investors have started to jump in again.

 

I have been following Birinyi since 2009, most of the trades which i lost, i was on the short side.

 

Here is an article which Birinyi predicted S&P bottom in 2008, this proves market history probably works. Most so called experts did not believe him: http://www.boglehead...ic.php?p=343132

 

Here is an article which Birinyi predicted S&P 1700 by 2013: http://www.dailyfina...-1-700-by-2012/

Look at the dates on those articles.

 

From now until around March 2014 the market will be bullish. From March to October bearish. The next bull wave will be end of 2014.

 

I will jump out around end of February 2014, That's when i will take a holiday and come back in June 2014.
 

Most bull markets which have a higher 1st Quater percentage start tend to last longer, look at the chart below

[Argento]

New highs coming for Dow today.

 

Microsoft and Amazon reported good numbers yesterday. Lucky i had a long on NASDAQ and till keeping it till end of US session today.

Hi S,

 

What is you view on next year? We should at some point see a decent correction (10,000 points+).

 

Most bullmarkets mature after 5 years and don't know if you have heard about the Kress cycle (40yr down), know some guys don't follow/believe cycles but have seen some play out nicely.

 

My TA suggest we are in the process of starting a topping process/pattern (but still good upside left) for that correction to kick off in January!

 

Monthly MACD's very overbought together with the PE ratio's!

 

A

[Mad Max]

If I am reading the daily chart correctly we might be in for another upswing on Monday.

 

[Sunesis]

The Dow is only 167.73 points, or 1.08% away from its Sept.18th all-time closing high

When the Dow closes above 15,676.94 it will join the Dow Transport into all time new high, reconfirming the primary bull market

 

During periods of upward market momentum, it's not uncommon for P/E multiples to shoot past long-term averages.

Other factors remain favorable for equities, such as liquidity, seasonality, declining oil prices, rates and the dollar

 

UK CLOCKS go back 1 hr on SUNDAY so London time becomes 4 Hrs Ahead of ET until US moves back 1 hr following Sunday.

History tells us that every time it happened, the stock market went up for 11 days and dropped 3 days in the past 15 years

[Sunesis]

New highs coming for Dow today.

 

Microsoft and Amazon reported good numbers yesterday. Lucky i had a long on NASDAQ and till keeping it till end of US session today.

 

 

[Beorn]

Closed some @ 40600

 

Closed the rest @ 40610

[Sunesis]

I dont think you understand what I am saying.

BAT, SAB and BHP are listed on Ftse also, they are down in London, so on JSE they are not up because of buying, but because of the currency conversion of the shares.

But still, if ZAR keeps tanking, they should keep climbing.

That's correct, 

 

It sure helps to diversify your indice portfolio, Yesterday FTSE was best performing index. Today ALSI is throwing in the spanners

 

Go ALSI

[Beorn]

As long as we got BAT,SAB,BHP and Richemont dancing we are off to the moon today

 

I dont think you understand what I am saying.

BAT, SAB and BHP are listed on Ftse also, they are down in London, so on JSE they are not up because of buying, but because of the currency conversion of the shares.

But still, if ZAR keeps tanking, they should keep climbing.