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Aveng (AEG)...free lunch?!

Aveng AEG small cap construction

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#21 Tonyh199

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Posted 09 April 2021 - 07:49 AM

Hallo everyone,

 

Two questions to the current AEG shareholding "comrades" :

 

1 - If you are currently holding shares are you going to take up the upcoming rights offer? Yes or No

      For me it is not a matter of being diluted. With this many shares in issue and a share price at 3-4c it almost becomes irrelevant for me. It is more a question of believe in the company to decide if you want to give them more of your money or not.

 

2 - I am currently holding shares with an average cost of just below 2c (as I presume many of you do). My initial thought was to sell out at 5c (150% gain). I am now starting to think this exit price of myne might be to low. Am I now being to greedy or are there sold evidence/reasons out there to suggest holding out to maybe 10c or more?

 

I know everyone need to make and are responsible for their own decisions but I will appreciate any other opinions and feedback.

 

Thanks 

1: Yes, I will take up the rights offer. Since ¨only¨ 6.7 billion shares will be issued we will probably be offered 1 share for every +/- 9 we hold. Its going to be interesting to see what the NPL´s sell for but I will try and accumulate more if the price is right.
2: The company is on track for earnings per share of 2 cents + (if the non core business is taken out) , even with the diluted shareholding .So yes I think a share price of 10 cents plus with 2 years is possible

.


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#22 sommerso

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Posted 09 April 2021 - 06:39 AM

There are so many positives to AEG. Been holding for a while. Will continue to hold. Will take up rights issue. My average is currently below 2cents anyway.
So the next round will also help. Have bought a few extra in the meantime as well.
AEG is my biggest holding.
Did you see the article that was out in the last day or so, about the new order for McConnell dowel. Its only going to get better.
I may exit my capital at 10cents, but that is ot set in stone yet

 

 

Please add the article here if you can find it again?


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#23 sommerso

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Posted 09 April 2021 - 06:38 AM

I still need to get in to this share, If I buy shares now, would I still qualify for the second rights offer ?

 

Hi Junz, yes you would. They are still doing the Extraordinary General meeting to have the rights offer approved. 


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#24 AMG76

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 08:33 PM

There are so many positives to AEG. Been holding for a while. Will continue to hold. Will take up rights issue. My average is currently below 2cents anyway.
So the next round will also help. Have bought a few extra in the meantime as well.
AEG is my biggest holding.
Did you see the article that was out in the last day or so, about the new order for McConnell dowel. Its only going to get better.
I may exit my capital at 10cents, but that is ot set in stone yet
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#25 Junz

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 08:32 PM

I still need to get in to this share, If I buy shares now, would I still qualify for the second rights offer ?


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#26 Blackobar

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 03:52 PM

Hallo everyone,

Two questions to the current AEG shareholding "comrades" :

1 - If you are currently holding shares are you going to take up the upcoming rights offer? Yes or No
For me it is not a matter of being diluted. With this many shares in issue and a share price at 3-4c it almost becomes irrelevant for me. It is more a question of believe in the company to decide if you want to give them more of your money or not.

2 - I am currently holding shares with an average cost of just below 2c (as I presume many of you do). My initial thought was to sell out at 5c (150% gain). I am now starting to think this exit price of myne might be to low. Am I now being to greedy or are there sold evidence/reasons out there to suggest holding out to maybe 10c or more?

I know everyone need to make and are responsible for their own decisions but I will appreciate any other opinions and feedback.

Thanks


1. Yes, I'm following my rights.
I'm looking to start sell at at least R2 in a couple of years... Am I being too optimistic?
McConnell Dowell and Moolmans are great businesses, we just need to sell all the non core loss making businesses, payoff the debt and focus on our core businesses.
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#27 CasualTrader

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 01:10 PM

Hallo everyone,

 

Two questions to the current AEG shareholding "comrades" :

 

1 - If you are currently holding shares are you going to take up the upcoming rights offer? Yes or No

      For me it is not a matter of being diluted. With this many shares in issue and a share price at 3-4c it almost becomes irrelevant for me. It is more a question of believe in the company to decide if you want to give them more of your money or not.

 

2 - I am currently holding shares with an average cost of just below 2c (as I presume many of you do). My initial thought was to sell out at 5c (150% gain). I am now starting to think this exit price of myne might be to low. Am I now being to greedy or are there sold evidence/reasons out there to suggest holding out to maybe 10c or more?

 

I know everyone need to make and are responsible for their own decisions but I will appreciate any other opinions and feedback.

 

Thanks 

Yes, I will take it up too. Not that is going to be a whole lot of money for me in any case. I only hold 1m shares. So if this thing goes wrong won't break the bank. Thankfully got into Sasol quite cheaply.


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#28 sommerso

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 12:50 PM

Hallo everyone,

 

Two questions to the current AEG shareholding "comrades" :

 

1 - If you are currently holding shares are you going to take up the upcoming rights offer? Yes or No

      For me it is not a matter of being diluted. With this many shares in issue and a share price at 3-4c it almost becomes irrelevant for me. It is more a question of believe in the company to decide if you want to give them more of your money or not.

 

2 - I am currently holding shares with an average cost of just below 2c (as I presume many of you do). My initial thought was to sell out at 5c (150% gain). I am now starting to think this exit price of myne might be to low. Am I now being to greedy or are there sold evidence/reasons out there to suggest holding out to maybe 10c or more?

 

I know everyone need to make and are responsible for their own decisions but I will appreciate any other opinions and feedback.

 

Thanks 

 

 

 

1. Yes, I will be taking up the rights offer. My current share price is sitting at about 2.3c. The next set of rights, depending on the ratio, might drop me to just below 2c. I'm doing this in case they decide to do a consolidation at some stage, I'll not be worse off ( hopefully ).  

2. I guess this depends on your patience. Since July 2018 they've been in the region of a few cents.  December 2017 they traded at R7. Sadly I don't have the financials from that period, all I know is that we are on the otherside, positive side of the turnaround plan now and it is a different company than it was in December 2017. Some of the better educated holders will do math with the market cap and share price and deduce from their what is fair value. 

 

Personally I'm playing it by ear, my exit is at R1 and I'm hoping that is not more than 2 - 3 years away. If I could rephrase your question, will we definitely hit 10c, what would need to happen for this to realise? Master Shi and the oracles and sages will have to tell. 


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#29 JR7800

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 12:24 PM

Hallo everyone,

 

Two questions to the current AEG shareholding "comrades" :

 

1 - If you are currently holding shares are you going to take up the upcoming rights offer? Yes or No

      For me it is not a matter of being diluted. With this many shares in issue and a share price at 3-4c it almost becomes irrelevant for me. It is more a question of believe in the company to decide if you want to give them more of your money or not.

 

2 - I am currently holding shares with an average cost of just below 2c (as I presume many of you do). My initial thought was to sell out at 5c (150% gain). I am now starting to think this exit price of myne might be to low. Am I now being to greedy or are there sold evidence/reasons out there to suggest holding out to maybe 10c or more?

 

I know everyone need to make and are responsible for their own decisions but I will appreciate any other opinions and feedback.

 

Thanks 


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#30 Tonyh199

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Posted 05 April 2021 - 12:26 PM

After Thursday's 2 dips ( only   :) ) and almost 100 million shares, .... 1 billion shares left on the wall....  

Hmm... the tea leaves are speaking to me .... and the clouds are predicting... 5c end of April....  :D  :D

 

 

10c by next April. Unless the Wellerman has brought us tea and rum and the right whale.. .. 


Nothing for my portfolio to do but wait..... just wait.... 

The waiting is the hard bit! , but I think your predictions will be close. When the next (and hopefully final rights issue) is announced, I think JP Morgan may want to get another chunk of shares (if they are not already accumulating)  - Apart from getting more control they will also stand to profit from the rights issue at 1,5 cents. and will get the big seller out of the market leaving a lot less shares on offer and an opportunity to break through the 5 cents barrier. Of course some good news in terms of new work orders will also help.


Edited by Tonyh199, 05 April 2021 - 12:28 PM.

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#31 sommerso

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Posted 02 April 2021 - 09:05 AM

I hope you are right but with 1,1 billion shares on offer at 4 cents it will take a while to eat through this before getting to the 5 cents level. 

 

 

After Thursday's 2 dips ( only   :) ) and almost 100 million shares, .... 1 billion shares left on the wall....  

Hmm... the tea leaves are speaking to me .... and the clouds are predicting... 5c end of April....  :D  :D

 

 

10c by next April. Unless the Wellerman has brought us tea and rum and the right whale.. .. 


Nothing for my portfolio to do but wait..... just wait.... 


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#32 Spolle

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Posted 31 March 2021 - 02:19 PM

Need some positive news so that those 4c sellers cancel their orders. Something along the lines of McConnell Dowel benefitting from huge infrastructure stimulus, and a commodity super cycle benefitting Moolmans. 

 

One can dream. Zzzzzzzzzzz


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#33 Tonyh199

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Posted 31 March 2021 - 09:14 AM

We have been seeing less and less dips to 3c. Today there were only 3. We need a dipless day and then I think we might start seeing the 5c blips 

I hope you are right but with 1,1 billion shares on offer at 4 cents it will take a while to eat through this before getting to the 5 cents level. 


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#34 sommerso

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 05:16 PM

From a technical perspective, Aveng is now trading above its 200 day moving average, which is below the 50 MA, which is below the 21 MA, which is below the 8 MA. Plus the 200 MA is moving upwards. Let's hope it stays this way and blips to 5c soon. 

 

If it does, I would certainly feel a lot better about another rights offer. Until the price starts moving, another rights offer is going to feel like a kick in the nuts. 

 

 

We have been seeing less and less dips to 3c. Today there were only 3. We need a dipless day and then I think we might start seeing the 5c blips 


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#35 Trader001

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 02:56 PM

Why do I smell a delisting here?

Me don't think so, but that is my personal view.

 

Besides the fact that JP Morgan Chase will be in control of Aveng through its majority shareholding, and the fact that it will probably ensure that the Aveng directors get their annual bonusses based on their performances, I don't believe it will be in the Interest of JP Morgan to  delist or deregister  from the JSE because:

1. Delisting and deregistering are complicated issues

2. A substantial portion of the Aveng shares are held by investment institutions in SA such as Coronation, Allan Gray and others and to delist and or deregister will impede these institutions' ability to trade their shares. This, I believe, will be the big no-no for Aveng  because an action like that will destroy a lot of local trust Aveng has built up with its investors through dire times  in the past 10 years as we all know

3. Perhaps the intention will be to get multiple listings , perhaps in Australia and who knows..... even in the New York because this company is going to grow internationally and will need more liquidity/exposure for its share in bigger markets than SA  (Steinhoff  has a dual listing.  Its major listing is in Frankfurt, not in SA)  


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#36 skeez

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Posted 29 March 2021 - 10:08 PM

70 % of the business is in Australasia this proportion will get bigger with time.They want more capital. These 1.5 c rights offers in SA not going to cut it am afraid. Best to list in Australia for access to capital.
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#37 skeez

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Posted 29 March 2021 - 10:08 PM

70 % of the business is in Australasia this proportion will get bigger with time.They want more capital. These 1.5 c rights offers in SA not going to cut it am afraid. Best to list in Australia for access to capital.
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#38 Spolle

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Posted 29 March 2021 - 09:14 PM

100% agree

 

70 % of the business is in Australasia this proportion will get bigger with time.They want more capital. These 1.5 c rights offers in SA not going to cut it am afraid. Best to list in Australia for access to capital.


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#39 skeez

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Posted 29 March 2021 - 09:09 PM

70 % of the business is in Australasia this proportion will get bigger with time.They want more capital. These 1.5 c rights offers in SA not going to cut it am afraid. Best to list in Australia for access to capital.
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#40 Spolle

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Posted 29 March 2021 - 09:03 PM

From a technical perspective, Aveng is now trading above its 200 day moving average, which is below the 50 MA, which is below the 21 MA, which is below the 8 MA. Plus the 200 MA is moving upwards. Let's hope it stays this way and blips to 5c soon. 

 

If it does, I would certainly feel a lot better about another rights offer. Until the price starts moving, another rights offer is going to feel like a kick in the nuts. 


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