866 replies to this topic

[Polly]

consensus changed from 100% hold to 50%hold 50%buy

exactly 50:50 r/r...belly up or 20 bagger

[Lionelza1]

consensus changed from 100% hold to 50%hold 50%buy

[Polly]

Im not sure if we will see the 3 cents again. There is someone who takes up all shares at 4 cents. Can it be Aton? I doubt because they currently hold 1,3 billiin shares. To get to the 25% again they need to buy another 4 billion shares.

But for long term i see great potential in this company.

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Just sit tight and look after 6 months,12 month and 24 months......Maybe be belly up or a 20 bagger....cant getter r/r at this price.

[andi222]

Im not sure if we will see the 3 cents again. There is someone who takes up all shares at 4 cents. Can it be Aton? I doubt because they currently hold 1,3 billiin shares. To get to the 25% again they need to buy another 4 billion shares.

But for long term i see great potential in this company.

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[Queen B]

3 cents on the cards already

[andi222]

Pressure from top starting again. Lets see if the big volunes are gonna come back at 3 cents

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[andi222]

Still wondering who is buying all the shares. But agreed, 3 cents will come again. Always when volumes accumulate at 4 cents someone is selling big. SENS need to come soon tho.

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[SB45]

Sens out last night, quite a few bondholders turned shareholders. It looks like Old Mutual and Allen Gray were the ones dumping last week. JP Morgan next to dump? I will agree that we might still see below 3c

[andi222]

Thats just the increase from the conversion of the bonds. Coronation was holding lots of the bonds. So dont know if they are buying more. I think it will still sit at 3 cents for a while.

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[Chris101]

Huge Volumes on Friday!!

 

Lets see if this baby will start turning now

 

Vol  1203967278

 

R 44 562 171

And Coronation is climbing in!

 

AVENG LIMITED
(Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa)
(Registration number: 1944/018119/06)
ISIN: ZAE000111829
SHARE CODE: AEG
("Aveng" or "the Group")


Disclosure of Beneficial Interest in Securities


In accordance with section 122(3)( of the Companies Act, No. 71 of 2008 and
section 3.83( of the JSE Limited Listings Requirements, shareholders are hereby
advised that Aveng Limited has received formal notification on Thursday, 27
September 2018, that clients of Coronation Asset Management have, in aggregate,
acquired an interest in the ordinary shares of Aveng, such that the total interest in the
ordinary shares of Aveng held by Coronation Asset Management clients now
amounts to 31.75 % of the total issued ordinary shares of Aveng. Shareholders are
hereby advised that the acquisition is as a result of the Specific Issue of the shares to
the Bondholders as detailed in the announcement dated Tuesday, 11 September
2018. The total interest held by Coronation Asset Management clients before the
Specific Issue of shares was 20.19%.

 

[Chris101]

Huge Volumes on Friday!!

 

Lets see if this baby will start turning now

 

Vol  1203967278

 

R 44 562 171

 

  

[Trader001]

Think about it..firstly they blocked M&R to acquire Aveng by buying 25% shareholding in Aveng..so do the calc...what would they need percentage wise in Aveng to influence make major decision making now that bondholders are selling their over subscription for peanuts or ( would they need 40% of 19 billion shares? but at our exchange rate..it is not impossible)...as someone alluded to..bondholders are just selling Aveng because if it drops to a certain price it no longer forms part of its strategic investment plans. Me simple thinking is ... Aton wants to get their hands on the 2 best performing assets in Aveng ..to support their vision of ..getting a global footprint...so..i would say buy lots at 2 or 3c or lower...in the end you will score because this company is gonna be like a phoenics..its will pick itself up out of the ashes

[Trader001]

Who is mopping up these shares??? can it be Aton?

[Matrix]

Did you see volumes that just passed now? 

782million so far today.

[andi222]

check the volumes now andi

 

Yeah crazy, haven't seen such volumes at any other share. In just 3 days 5% of the shares changed their owners. The buyers definitely see great potential. 

[andi222]

between Coronation, Allan Gray and Aton, they probably hold over 50% of aveng now...

 

sens juts out re coronation 31%

 

That's great news. I think Allan Grey will sit close to 35% as they where holding lots of the debentures. Aton is sitting at roughly 5%. I'm expecting a SENS soon. They will also have to release a SENS in regards to Allan Grey's shareholding and even for Investec. 

 

It will be interesting if the Murray and Roberts deal might be negotiated again after Aton does not hold the major shareholding now.

[Polly]

between Coronation, Allan Gray and Aton, they probably hold over 50% of aveng now...

 

sens juts out re coronation 31%

[Lionelza1]

check the volumes now andi

[andi222]

50mil on the 3c bid side and 350m on the 4c sell side. 

 

Like I said before this will go down to 1c again or R200m market cap equivalent (which is still double group five current mcap).  Expect a 1:100 share consolidation from 1c.  and then a further drop from R1.00 to perhaps 70c at fair value until industry stabilises and company retruns to profit - maybe 3 years.

 

I doubt this will fall below 3 cents. Remember they have 1,4 billion rand less liabilities. They don't have to repay these bonds. So actually the market cap should be sitting at 0.2 plus 1.4 which equals 1.6 divided by 19 gives you a share price of 8 cents. That's where it should be trading if you follow theory. That's however just my opinion. Current share ratio is 150 mil to 300 mil. And there is a lot of buyers. Yesterday 300 million traded.

[andi222]

Extract from the Group report: 

"Management has prepared a budget and business plan for the 2019 financial year and the following two years, as well as cash

flow forecasts covering a minimum of 12 months from the date of these financial statements. These forecasts have been

prepared with the assistance of independent external advisers to ensure that they have been accurately compiled using

appropriate assumptions. The budgets, plans and forecasts have, together with the assumptions used, been interrogated and

approved by the Board. These forecasts and plans, being implemented by management, indicate that the Group will have

sufficient cash resources for the foreseeable future. In approving the operational and liquidity forecasts, the Board has

considered the following information up to the date of approval of these financial statements:

􀁘􀀃 Strategy adopted by the Board and announced on 26 February 2018;

􀁘􀀃 Successful R493 million rights issue concluded on 4 July 2018;

􀁘􀀃 Early redemption of the R2 billion convertible bond, including the successful raising of a new R460 million debt instrument

to facilitate the settlement of R657 million of existing convertible bonds at a 30% discount ahead of the early redemption.

The remaining R1,4 billion bonds were settled through the specific issue of ordinary shares at R0,10 per share on

25 September 2018:

􀁘􀀃 Implementation of a revised Common Terms Agreement with the SA lending banks that includes renewed facilities, additional

funding of R400 million and extended funding terms to 2020;

􀁘􀀃 Updated non-core asset disposal plan, targeting majority of disposals by 30 June 2019, including the announced property

disposals of R254 million;

􀁘􀀃 Updated budget and business plans for the post year end period up to 31 December 2019 for the Group, incorporating the

benefits already realised from the Strategic Action Plan such as improved operating performance, greater predictability of

performance and working capital enhancements, as well as future benefits to liquidity to be achieved once non-core

businesses have been disposed;

􀁘􀀃 Sensitivity testing of key inputs included in the operating and liquidity budgets to ascertain the effect of non-achievement of

one or all of the key inputs (operational performance, non-core asset disposal timing), including any effect on the ongoing

compliance with covenant requirements in place with the SA lending banks, Australian banks and other financing agreements;

􀁘􀀃 A short-term liquidity forecast management process that has been introduced and embedded in all the South African

operations with the help of external consultants.

The Group has cash of R2,1 billion (2017: R2,0 billion) at year end, R568 million (2017: R625 million) of which is held in joint

arrangements. Advance payments that will be used in the short term amount to R85 million (2017: R146 million) while short-term

debt repayments are R255 million (2017: R704 million). After working capital requirements of R800 million (2017: R800 million)

and unutilised facilities of R536 million (2017: R1,4 billion), the short-term liquidity of the Group is considered to be satisfactory to

the Board with liquidity headroom of R904 million."

 

This in my opinion is great. New customers now know if they enter into a contract with Aveng they will be able to finish the project because they have enough cash to do so. A debt to equity ration of 40% is amazing.

 

As soon as Allan Grey has sold their required shares to fit their strategy we can see the 10 cents in my view. They are currently selling at 70% loss.