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Steinhoff


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#10761 Investment novice

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Posted 17 July 2018 - 10:18 PM

Positive progress is being made and the Group is aiming to obtain, as soon as possible, the requisite support levels under the LUA


Okay... So RAM85. Sleep tight... Good news.... Bloomberg shot up 0.21 post closing....

Snh has given market comfort by stating positive progress has been made... What may be happening is that creditors who missed the deadline are forcing the extension to get the benefit

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#10762 Investment novice

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Posted 17 July 2018 - 10:13 PM

Ram where did you read that no creditor has signed as yet???

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#10763 Ram85

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Posted 17 July 2018 - 09:52 PM

Deadline has been extended again... We'll now have to wait till Thursday... I don't think this is good news... not a single creditor has signed yet...

 

EXTENSION OF LOCK-UP EARLY BIRD FAIR DEADLINE Steinhoff International Holdings NV (the "Company" and with its subsidiary, the "Group") Further to the Company's announcement on 11 July 2018 (the "LUA Announcement") confirming the launch of a consent Steinhoff Europe AG, Steinhoff Finance Holding GmbH & Stripes US Holding Incorporated, Ltd., for a lock-up agreement (the "LUA") in connection with the restructuring of the financial indebtedness of the Company. London time on Wednesday, 18 July 2018. The SFHG / SEAG record time (as defined in the LUA) remains unchanged.


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#10764 leo

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Posted 17 July 2018 - 06:44 PM

Deadline for early bird fee is 8pm UK time so 9pm SA time.

Best case we get a SENS tomorrow before midday stating they received enough support.

I would expect a share rally if this happens (as the market isn't really pricing in any outcome), but it really is anybody's guess now.

Most of us are invested, so good luck to all. Personally, i doubt we will ever see R20-R30 again.


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#10765 icassim

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Posted 17 July 2018 - 06:16 PM

Deadline for early bird fee is 8pm UK time so 9pm SA time.

 

Best case we get a SENS tomorrow before midday stating they received enough support.

 

I would expect a share rally if this happens (as the market isn't really pricing in any outcome), but it really is anybody's guess now.

 

Most of us are invested, so good luck to all. Personally, i doubt we will ever see R20-R30 again.

 

 


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#10766 Investment novice

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Posted 17 July 2018 - 04:58 PM

We in various scenarios....
Worst case.. Sorry liquidation and asset stripping. Possible if insufficient support received by Friday.
Middle road... Insufficient support received by this evening. Snh has to increase offer and negotiate to meet deadline 20.
Best case.... Sens announcement at 5pm today or early tomorrow confirming sufficient support received.



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#10767 Investment novice

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Posted 17 July 2018 - 01:04 PM

Chris. Thank you for the post. We have with difficulty tried to make sense of this business. It is in a dire state but salvageable.

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#10768 Chris101

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Posted 17 July 2018 - 11:00 AM

Hi Guys

Been following this post with a lot of interest over the last few months.

I am not a technical tracking guy but more the believer in that a company with 130 000 odd employees cannot just go down.

Had Steinhoff at R 60

So I have been buying in and sitting on a average of R 4.77 and have a few 100 000 worth of shares.

 

Unfortunatly cannot pump in more funds before selling the family jewelery. 

I committed myself to Dec 2018 and will try my utmost to sit on my hands till then and not sell.

 

If I read all the belowmentioned articles my gut says if they can:

1. Get the agreement in place before 20th

2. Sell a few rotten apples worldwide

3. Get America buying beds again by improving systems etc

 

Please keep on posting as I believe we all love the opinions and perspective.

Media are doomers and greaters of Gloom and that is how they sell papers. If there is nothing to say they sell us shitty stories on a dayliy basis and if we can get that out of the way and look with a clear vision at things we will find out that:

- South Africa is not such a bad place

- Malema has actually about 1000 fanatical followers

- There is on the ground actually very little racial issues and most of the **** is driven by the media to sell the bloody papers.

- AND LASTLY STEINHOFF is actually a good business.. And that may shock the people who believe all the crap they read in the papers.

 

I am sure we can have a share at R 20 - R 30 by end 2019. Maybe more

 

If so Im buying a house cash in Eastcliff in Hermanus and moving to the coast.

haha

Greatings from a Pretoria East that has only now received power after being in the Dark ages for 8 days

Tx

Chris

 

I have a few other shares that I am looking at also sure that when the tide turns there will be serious profits to be made!

Wesizwe

Sibanye

 


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#10769 LarryK

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Posted 17 July 2018 - 10:07 AM

wanted to reply before Polly does....

 

time for the brave to get in, or the foolish....

that's my calling, I wont be surprised this share drops to R2.40 today . will set the buy price at R2.35

Agreed. Will consider to buy more shares around that mark.

 

Good luck Mr IN


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#10770 Investment novice

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Posted 17 July 2018 - 10:03 AM

We should expect this stock to be very volatile the next few days.

Will hopefully see a nice price jump should the LUA materialize. 

wanted to reply before Polly does....

 

time for the brave to get in, or the foolish....

that's my calling, I wont be surprised this share drops to R2.40 today . will set the buy price at R2.35


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#10771 LarryK

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Posted 17 July 2018 - 08:56 AM

We should expect this stock to be very volatile the next few days.

Will hopefully see a nice price jump should the LUA materialize. 


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#10772 Investment novice

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Posted 16 July 2018 - 04:12 PM

Market is extremely nervous that creditors won't sign lock in.

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#10773 Ram85

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Posted 16 July 2018 - 03:37 PM

Eish... In true steinhoff style.

Pain... Pain... Pain...



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What is the issue? Just because the extended the early bird fee deadline? Is that all? What am I missing?


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#10774 Investment novice

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Posted 16 July 2018 - 03:18 PM

Eish... In true steinhoff style.

Pain... Pain... Pain...



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#10775 Investment novice

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Posted 15 July 2018 - 11:47 AM

Distressed Debt investment strategies allows for rirr of 20-30% over 2 years. Private equity companies take over management control, restructure, refinance debt and get paid out as well as retain equity.
If they wanted they could even delist and relist. But this would require legal settlement...

I wrote about this as a plausible scenario hope to see some journalist pickup up and expand with interviews...

Whats in it for shareholders.. For new shareholders we go for along the journey recovering value.

Research thus far is aligned. And as a betting person I see more upside convincingly fo creditors to lock in and sign. I am hedging they will sign. Will pump available funds Monday as we may see sens on Tuesday or ahead of Friday deadline..

Will also continue to invest until mid August as all research proves to turnaround efforts implemented especially poundland with 300 pepco stores.. New conforama downsizing and mattress firm repositioning and marketing.

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#10776 Investment novice

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Posted 14 July 2018 - 11:48 AM

Don't know why I get sucked into giving my 5c.

Nav will not improve substantially over the short term as it doesn't matter if debt is short or long classification. Nav is usually the min that a co will trade at.

In the case of stein, nav is trading at a deep discount, which will improve as uncertainties subside.

These type of buz should be valued on a forward multiple or dcf model, which is usually higher for retail buz, compared to eg manufacturing.

After a few positive trading updates, and improvement in ebitda, value should increase more than nav.

Even though interest will not be physically paid, debt will still grow and be accounted for a cash and debt adjustment. But this arrangement will go a long a long way in stabilising the co working cap.

If the creditors sign and positive operating results are received for 2 or more Q. Then we should be moving closer to R10.

Hopefully pwc doesn't impair any further goodwill. And for the non ifrs peeps, impairment of goodwill can never be reversed. Capish

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Thank you for your 5c
It contributes to constructive conversation. Pls continue to share thoughts. In the coming days I want to explore viabilities on distressed debt strategies and ownership strategies above and beyond debt repayment. Which motivates longer term investment.
Agree with Polly on technicals and excitement at R5. And i am already in massive profits and due to volume each 10cent gain allows me knewer dreams.. Hopefully not nightmares... My tolerance level is at R1. 30.
Disagree with Polly on legal cases as even though there will be massive information courts don't only act on information but also on intention and ensuring the real culprits are accountable. There is still the issue on precedence... And you may find evidence on this... Regarding write offs... Nice all historic... Regarding tax... They may not have any tax liabilities and potentially tax credits....

Pls continue commenting on technicals and fundamentals... Love this chats as adds to media content..

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#10777 leo

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Posted 14 July 2018 - 11:05 AM

Again. It talks to fundamentals, which you can't be faulted on. Market thrives on sentiment. this is a share where you maybe talk a small position in, and take it from there. Too many unknowns thus far.

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#10778 leo

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Posted 14 July 2018 - 11:02 AM

Don't know why I get sucked into giving my 5c.

Nav will not improve substantially over the short term as it doesn't matter if debt is short or long classification. Nav is usually the min that a co will trade at.

In the case of stein, nav is trading at a deep discount, which will improve as uncertainties subside.

These type of buz should be valued on a forward multiple or dcf model, which is usually higher for retail buz, compared to eg manufacturing.

After a few positive trading updates, and improvement in ebitda, value should increase more than nav.

Even though interest will not be physically paid, debt will still grow and be accounted for a cash and debt adjustment. But this arrangement will go a long a long way in stabilising the co working cap.

If the creditors sign and positive operating results are received for 2 or more Q. Then we should be moving closer to R10.

Hopefully pwc doesn't impair any further goodwill. And for the non ifrs peeps, impairment of goodwill can never be reversed. Capish

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#10779 Polly

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Posted 14 July 2018 - 10:59 AM


There are skeptics that this company is worth nill but as we saw with lonmin in 2016 the share price rallied to r40.

 

 

Still of opinion this is worth nil going forward.  The higher the price goes ( if you say this is because of NAV) , the higher will be the claims against the company as chances of recoverability for the creditor  will be greater.

 

 At moment price action in my opinion is basically short covering on break of R2.00 to upside and turning out to be an almighty squeeze. 

 

Any price close to R4.00 will be a good selling opportunity.

 

Will only become interested to buy again if price breaks above R5.00

 

 

Just my 2c and still not excited about this share.

 

Good Luck IN,  hope you fullfill your dreams though.


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#10780 Investment novice

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 10:36 PM


Where is interest coming from....

Investors with big pockets seek “good companies with bad balance sheets”— firms with sustainable businesses and positive cash flow but whose financial situation is distressed. The investment team conducts extensive research and analysis using top-down/bottom-up approach to find undervalued opportunities and typically seeks to make non-operational control investments in troubled businesses. This provides the strategy maximum trading flexibility and allows investment professionals to focus on pre-investment research and analysis rather than post-investment operating issues.
The strategy generally targets:

Distressed securities

Bank debt

Stressed high yield debt

Event-driven situations

Restructured and post-reorganization equities

Trade claims


Some reading for the weekend....


And finally...

I am trying to get a better sense of the evolving nav and share price targets folliwng restructuring. Currently share trading at 65% discount to Nav. But nav can start to improve especially with changes in:liabilities and accounting models, operational transformation and debt holder strategies evolve.... This may be a premature question but it is certainly what forward looking investment houses that focus on high risk investments look at.....

Any thoughts??????

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