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Ascendis Health Ltd. – JSE:ASC


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#1 Investment novice

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Posted 06 May 2021 - 09:03 PM

The announcement should give an idea if the deal will be accepted or not, and what ASC is valued at after the deal is concluded. Thus, I would say that it will mostly be immediate - there might be some concern that shareholders won't accept deal (meeting held in July I think).


Mark sardi has engaged institutions and activists and has reached 90% of shareholders and more in past few months....if fair or less fair it probably will be accepted else...its business rescue...to sharegolders have a choice of nothing or a bad deal....think bad deal may still he value positive from where we sit at 60c
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#2 Investment novice

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Posted 06 May 2021 - 08:59 PM

Out of curiousity, do we suspect the rerate from cents to R's would happen almost immediately after the announcement or will it be a progressive over time climb.




Think depends on sens. If there is meat onnthe bones and it can be adequately quantified we suspect that there will bensome immediate value regain. But progressively over the day and the coming days.i think of ppc...qhere 69c qent to r1.35....stayed a few weeks and then xlimbed further....i thinl qe qould see climb quicker...there is also a thought thet there are vultires who may want to pick off the shareholders early witha deal...farmilida worth r2- there is about r2 a share worth of assets on balance sheet - thats r4...plus minus the value of underlying remaining businesses.....we could see a offer for shates at r2 to r4 very early end May....to delist...i say vultures hecause they will swoop in with an attractive offer...but with time shareholders would get more....anything is up for grabs..

Regarding shareholder vote ..if it is a good fair deal ....it will be elemental.....if we are skinned....well then we braai what left....by an by shareholders will support vote ...


There is the aspect of animal health and biosciences and shareholders may look to prevent the sale and lose the ebitda on these companies and dependong on the european exit shareholders may push for these sales to be abandoned....

Interesting days. Tuesday a.m is the latest for a sens..anytime now to then- even monday morning....
Sunwave fair value...asc paid 50m euro...can we get 70m euro distressed....remedica can we get 280 - 300m euro matching offers......350 for both....remaining debt 50m euro....no need to sell animal health and biosciences..unless we get r1.5b for that .... debt sorted..or some debt tolerable....cash available for special dividend...and farmilider sale back to owners..for 60m euro or to private equity....some cash in tje bank for shareholders.....hemce now ypu can see qhy vultires wil try swoop in may june..with at least r3 to r4....
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#3 Investment novice

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Posted 06 May 2021 - 08:45 PM

Out of curiousity, do we suspect the rerate from cents to R's would happen almost immediately after the announcement or will it be a progressive over time climb.


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#4 Shi

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Posted 06 May 2021 - 04:53 PM

Out of curiousity, do we suspect the rerate from cents to R's would happen almost immediately after the announcement or will it be a progressive over time climb. 

 

The announcement should give an idea if the deal will be accepted or not, and what ASC is valued at after the deal is concluded. Thus, I would say that it will mostly be immediate - there might be some concern that shareholders won't accept deal (meeting held in July I think).


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#5 sommerso

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Posted 06 May 2021 - 01:37 PM

My assumption is based on the following valuation.

 

Without the debt (today about 380 mil. €), what wolud be Ascendis market capitalization?

Based on yearly EBITDA (Yearly Ebitda shoud be about 90 mil €), we can assume a market cap of about 750 mil. € (about 8 times the EBITDA).

 

So if creditors will extinguish the debt, the recapitalization should attribuite them the 90% of the 'new' company (675 mil. €, the 90% of 750 mil. as market capitalization).

The old shareholders should obtain the remaining 10% of the 'new' company (75 mil. €, so about 2,5 ZAR considering current structure).

 

Let me know your views!

 

 

Out of curiousity, do we suspect the rerate from cents to R's would happen almost immediately after the announcement or will it be a progressive over time climb. 


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#6 Tolly12

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Posted 03 May 2021 - 04:56 PM

My assumption is based on the following valuation.

 

Without the debt (today about 380 mil. €), what wolud be Ascendis market capitalization?

Based on yearly EBITDA (Yearly Ebitda shoud be about 90 mil €), we can assume a market cap of about 750 mil. € (about 8 times the EBITDA).

 

So if creditors will extinguish the debt, the recapitalization should attribuite them the 90% of the 'new' company (675 mil. €, the 90% of 750 mil. as market capitalization).

The old shareholders should obtain the remaining 10% of the 'new' company (75 mil. €, so about 2,5 ZAR considering current structure).

 

Let me know your views!


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#7 Investment novice

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Posted 02 May 2021 - 05:09 AM

To me enter at this price seems a low risk decision.
Because I do not understand how Ascendis Management and creditors may try to obtain shareholders approval offering less value than current market cap. Now that Ascendis shares price is at her lower historical price.



Certainly agree share trading at risk. Could have even previously dropped to 20c or 30c but seems to have held the 50c level well and kept above 55c stable heading to 60c. For the week assumptions is 55c is a floor that may be tested...or we find a new floor in the week. Unpredictable...

Many are concerned that even cheap may result in money in the bin....
Options to sell before hell- or get in a proportion or wait for risk to reduce....
I am quite a believer in Mark Sardi..and have invested more since engaging him. He is really a respectible person- and working for shareholders as rightly so if he pulls r4 he is in for r12m. 40 to 55% ebitda growth with difficult times- is spectacular. And unfortunately headoffice xosts will reduce they in process. Then there is a building they selling r90m....

last year i invested in asc..last 4 months i doubled up but investing in Mark.
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#8 Investment novice

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Posted 02 May 2021 - 05:01 AM

From the delays and extension all parties seemingly looking at fair and consensual to structure the deal which shareholders me accept or veto ending in business rescue. Noo one wants business rescue in 2 jurisdictions and shareholders are at the bottom of the barrel.
There has been concern on how all of this has played out and one day perhaps another rob rose book ..

7 business days for an outcome. For those risl averse investers may be an option to await sens and then get on board on day 1 pump...if marlet likes the sens the pump here will be like ppc dragged on for months to come.

Activists group and many institutions together are at 90% plus of the holding and if the sens meets approval for going concern and fair ..it is as good as done....and not sure why Mark and team will require so much time to xlose the deal. We can do it a week after the sens....

Many are waiting on the sidelines here as rightly so...this is a massive high risk lose it all scenario
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#9 Tolly12

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 12:38 PM

To me enter at this price seems a low risk decision.
Because I do not understand how Ascendis Management and creditors may try to obtain shareholders approval offering less value than current market cap. Now that Ascendis shares price is at her lower historical price.
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#10 Zanme

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Posted 30 April 2021 - 10:21 PM

Progress has been made. Happy that parties locked in negotiation. Suggests there is room for negotiation..parties have leverage and looking for a win win or fair and consensual.
How many days does jse provide to issue sens on deal finalisation....as this will be a very long sens


My last investment with the hope of a restructure turned out sour. It was Intu Plc. The Business rescue practitioners treat shareholders like nobody's they don't even respond to emails. They just highjacked the company and shareholders are just told to accept it. It's unfortunate that management doesn't always act in the best interest of shareholders. With Ascendis if they making the profits that they are making it shouldn't be impossible to find lenders to support it. I can't understand why must the company land up in this predicament. Paying 15 percent interest. I am sure that a good portion of this debt can be refinanced. What happened to selling businesses etc. I don't trust these guys or they are grossly incompetent. Management hasn't made any effort to decrease costs either. They turn to the traditional banks who will rape the company dry. Instead of making an effort to consult with alternative banks there are so many Eastern Banks operating in South Africa who won't charge an arm and a leg to do basic things like replace debt. Management makes these things complex they hire fancy debt consultants like Goldman Sachs etc who rape the company dry. Instead of sorting out basics cut costs replace debt pay down debt by cutting costs and continue with this discipline. Same thing with Steinhoff Consultants don't create value they destroy it. Mark has been pfaffing around for almost two years now. He must go and someone with sound acumen must come in and take proper action. Or else we will be left like I was with Intu with absolutely nothing.
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#11 Investment novice

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Posted 30 April 2021 - 06:22 PM

An extension and forewarned about possible advice from sharechat




I miss Polly
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#12 Investment novice

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Posted 30 April 2021 - 05:44 PM

Progress has been made. Happy that parties locked in negotiation. Suggests there is room for negotiation..parties have leverage and looking for a win win or fair and consensual.
How many days does jse provide to issue sens on deal finalisation....as this will be a very long sens
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#13 sommerso

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Posted 30 April 2021 - 04:57 PM

An extension and forewarned about possible advice from sharechat
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#14 Sleepwa123

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Posted 30 April 2021 - 04:32 PM

As anticipated...

 

Ascendis Health Limited
(Registration number 2008/005856/06)
(Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa)
Share code: ASC
ISIN: ZAE000185005
("Ascendis Health" or "the Company" or "the
Group")


MARKET UPDATE


With reference to the announcements published by the Company on SENS on 10 March 2021 and 26 April 2021
and using the terms defined therein, shareholders are advised that discussions with Blantyre and L1 Health are
continuing and progress is being made towards finalisation of the Group Recapitalisation. Accordingly, the
Forbearance Creditors have agreed to extend the Forbearance Period until the close of business on 11 May 2021.
A detailed announcement regarding the Group Recapitalisation will be published on SENS as soon as negotiations
are finalised and within the prescribed timeframes set out in the Listings Requirements of the JSE Limited.

The Company is aware that there has been considerable speculation regarding the Group Recapitalisation and the
potential consequences thereof. The Company would like to remind Shareholders that they should base their
investment decisions regarding Ascendis Health shares on announcements published by the Company itself and
not on information from other sources, which may not necessarily be accurate or based on a complete set of
facts.


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#15 sommerso

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Posted 30 April 2021 - 08:54 AM

It's a unique situation so I don't think we can read too much into the timing of the SENS.

They have until midnight tonight to come to an agreement (unless extended) and then I don't think they need to announce it to the market immediately anyway.

So I wouldn't be surprised if we do not hear anything today. I could be wrong though.

 

 

Dankie Sleepwa... voice of reason! 


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#16 Sleepwa123

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Posted 30 April 2021 - 08:37 AM

It's a unique situation so I don't think we can read too much into the timing of the SENS.

They have until midnight tonight to come to an agreement (unless extended) and then I don't think they need to announce it to the market immediately anyway.

So I wouldn't be surprised if we do not hear anything today. I could be wrong though.


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#17 sommerso

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Posted 30 April 2021 - 08:31 AM

I have honestly spent zero time looking the chart
My first target (purely out of greed) is R2.10 and then R3.

Anyone with a proper TA - will be great
 

 

 

I'm thinking I'm liking @Dell's analysis more  :D We have the same targets though, mine is mostly based on need, similar to greed.. I'd be happy with R2, but R3 would be better and R4/R5 would be best... I had a look at the 3 year chart and There was a big drop from R12 to R4 and then R4 to cents..... hoping the deal (when) it comes through will push it to somewhere close to those levels. 

In a different post someone mentioned good news drops in the morning and bad news in the evening....   again.. .speculation and just balls of nervous energy posting here. 

If they extend however, this price probably will take a hit?
 


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#18 LarryK

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Posted 30 April 2021 - 08:14 AM

I have honestly spent zero time looking the chart 😂
My first target (purely out of greed) is R2.10 and then R3.

Anyone with a proper TA - will be great

Out of pure impatience.... what is our best and worst case scenarios for the runs? We looking at staying at cents or perhaps crossing into rands?

Had a look at another investing site and the 1 Month Fibonacci pivots R3 lines are at 81c ..... at the top end. But don't think that takes "news" into account.


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#19 Dell

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Posted 30 April 2021 - 08:06 AM

don't think we'll know until (if) deal announced...

 

Announcement will indicate what the "fair value" of the company is according to directors, L1/Blantyre and Rothschild...remember, difference between value and price...there WILL be a discount because shareholders are stuck, so with that shareholders will have to make peace - however, lender as well - no one wants a business rescue...lets hope the offer is "fairly" reasonable...

 

I still maintain my view (if one purely looks at EBITDA) that this stock is worth AT LEAST R 6...however, lots of factors for, and against higher, as well as lower offers... TIK TOK...

 

my 2 cents...


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#20 sommerso

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Posted 30 April 2021 - 07:37 AM

Hey at least we crossed the 60c resistance! Might run up nicely if there's positive news
 

 

 

Out of pure impatience.... what is our best and worst case scenarios for the runs? We looking at staying at cents or perhaps crossing into rands? 

 

Had a look at another investing site and the 1 Month Fibonacci pivots R3 lines are at 81c ..... at the top end. But don't think that takes "news" into account. 


Edited by sommerso, 30 April 2021 - 07:41 AM.

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