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ALSI Trades


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#1 Mostlyabear

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Posted Today, 10:37 AM

Our reserve governor just said we have come to the end of our rate hiking cycle...
At the MPC meeting 18-20July they may in that case drop the interest rate....
The market will probably like that because of the relief it will bring to consumers with our high domestic debt/credit,,,
Bull market will likely come again...


I don't believe the interest rate effects the longer term yields. They reflect the economic and political uncertainty in South Africa. The Rand will keep appreciating as it mean reverts and it will stun everybody on the way.

The Sa economy is very much a function of international factors including the impending international recession. Sa might limp out of recession officially by posting positive growth but only because it's off such a low base. There is no way to save it. Machines are simply killing off the need for workers.

As for today. Clearly a low volume bull trap. Getting very close to breaking the uptrend from the December rally. A close around or below 45 000 on the Alsi should confirm it
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#2 Hemel

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Posted Today, 10:30 AM

The longer dated bonds will get bid up again and the Rand will strengthen. The CB jawboning only really serves to flatten the curve and invert it.

The market also seems to still believe the Cbs are going to keep buying the market. They've implicitly begun stating they won't

Our reserve governor just said we have come to the end of our rate hiking cycle...

At the MPC meeting 18-20July they may in that case drop the interest rate....

The market will probably like that because of the relief it will bring to consumers with our high domestic debt/credit,,,

Bull market will likely come again...


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#3 Mostlyabear

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Posted Today, 09:37 AM

Wow... what a come back on the alsi this morning... unbelievable


The longer dated bonds will get bid up again and the Rand will strengthen. The CB jawboning only really serves to flatten the curve and invert it.

The market also seems to still believe the Cbs are going to keep buying the market. They've implicitly begun stating they won't
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#4 Ninja

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Posted Today, 09:15 AM

Wow... what a come back on the alsi this morning... unbelievable
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#5 Mostlyabear

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Posted Today, 09:15 AM

Astonishing Green Day so far. These Rand chasers never cease to amaze me
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#6 bullsnbears44

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Posted Yesterday, 12:57 PM

Another day another Tencent ATH. Will it ever stop?

Tencent like the rest of China is built on smoke and mirrors and lots of credit. The party will end soon.


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#7 Mostlyabear

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Posted Yesterday, 07:58 AM

Another day another Tencent ATH. Will it ever stop?
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#8 Hemel

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Posted 26 June 2017 - 05:55 PM

There was a massive block order dumped earlier in Gold. Story on zerohege some hours ago

Thank you ,,,

Took a look,,,

Seems they all think its rigged... Probably is ,,, but it is a market and it does some crazy stuff when people get trapped on the wrong side of trades...

There must be a lot of long gold contracts they are trying to close so the shorts must really be in trouble...

 

 

But if trouble and a panic is coming we think gold is good to have and  good also for our SA gold miners...

They need a break....


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#9 Mostlyabear

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Posted 26 June 2017 - 05:03 PM

There was a massive block order dumped earlier in Gold. Story on zerohege some hours ago
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#10 Hemel

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Posted 26 June 2017 - 04:53 PM

USD index is getting weaker so I understand our ZAR strengthening plus money coming in for the yields....

But why is gold getting so hammered???


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#11 Mostlyabear

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Posted 26 June 2017 - 02:57 PM

This market just entered a new dark place. Insanely poor economic data and collapsing yield curve is a great reason to buy the Jse.

How one can rationalize a long-term buy anymore is beyond me. The free money is over and the economies are all moving rapidly into recession.

A lot of money is going to be lost here. Won't be recovered for a decade at which point SA inflation would have destroyed all gains.
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#12 bullsnbears44

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Posted 26 June 2017 - 09:58 AM

Mine fine but only checked my account now. Your fine now?

They said it's being blocked by my work firewall. Works ok when I'm on my private internet. Thanks.


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#13 Rulz3

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Posted 26 June 2017 - 09:34 AM

Anyone else having an issue with IG today? I'm not seeing any figures at all including balances and P/L.

Mine fine but only checked my account now. Your fine now?


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#14 bullsnbears44

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Posted 26 June 2017 - 08:30 AM

Anyone else having an issue with IG today? I'm not seeing any figures at all including balances and P/L.


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#15 bullsnbears44

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Posted 23 June 2017 - 05:32 PM

Next week should be interesting now. Just the upswing that was needed to keep things moving.

Question remains who would wants to hold long over the weekend?

Holding on to my small long from last week. I expect the bounce to continue next week. Medium term view (3 months) is still strongly short. I'll be adding heavily to shorts but why not grab some easy cash on the bounce in the meantime.


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#16 Mostlyabear

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Posted 23 June 2017 - 04:47 PM

Next week should be interesting now. Just the upswing that was needed to keep things moving.

Question remains who would wants to hold long over the weekend?
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#17 bullsnbears44

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Posted 23 June 2017 - 10:48 AM

Looks like the brutal selling of the past few weeks has stopped. Now waiting for the bounce to add to the shorts again. I think we are close to the tipping point now. Sep and Oct are going to be dangerous months for bulls.


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#18 Mostlyabear

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Posted 23 June 2017 - 07:56 AM

Oil up 70c off the lows. I think we all know what that means
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#19 Snippit

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Posted 22 June 2017 - 04:36 PM

SWIX has new low w/ divergence but the lower channel (from Jan 2016) still sits a spike lower away.

A few more days for the next short term turn stronger of Rand can bring sustainability to this turnaround.


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#20 TellyTubby

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Posted 22 June 2017 - 01:28 PM

Definately panic selling today...often happens at market bottoms....I see today as a major low..have next count to 51847 and year end count to 54157


Flushing out of them weak hands..check
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