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ALSI Trades


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#1 Mostlya

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Posted 20 October 2017 - 10:25 AM

For Tencent a correction is due, but anything more than a visit to previous lower order wave 4 would not be typical.

The fear of a general end of bull cycle may well get more legs and progress into a test of the manipulative systems that are now not just place but deeply entrenched. Presently I see the mid primary 3 take is at least equally compelling. Going through year end should shed more light.

 

tencent-w-201017.png

Thanks for that. Tencent and it's laggard Naspers will forever remain a mystery to me. I guess when it's all said and done it'll more likely than not be written off to bubble euphoria and reasonable wave counts and trading can resume. They're obviously both high beta type of investments so I would expect a severe correction.

 

We'll lump it together with Bitcoin and send it down the Amazon to be washed up somewhere one day.


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#2 Snippit

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Posted 20 October 2017 - 09:57 AM

Tony Ma owner of Tencent sold 6 million of his shares...

 

For Tencent a correction is due, but anything more than a visit to previous lower order wave 4 would not be typical.

The fear of a general end of bull cycle may well get more legs and progress into a test of the manipulative systems that are now not just place but deeply entrenched. Presently I see the mid primary 3 take is at least equally compelling. Going through year end should shed more light.

 

tencent-w-201017.png


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#3 Halfday

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 12:48 PM

Chinese giving Tencent a solid one and with the stronger ZAR down we go...

But why is Tencent falling???

Tony Ma owner of Tencent sold 6 million of his shares...


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#4 Halfday

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 09:32 AM

Chinese giving Tencent a solid one and with the stronger ZAR down we go...

But why is Tencent falling???

OK,,, all the indices are falling because its the 30 year anniversary of the DOW crash...

Traders are a superstitious  bunch..

But better safe than sorry...


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#5 Halfday

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 09:25 AM

Chinese giving Tencent a solid one and with the stronger ZAR down we go...

But why is Tencent falling???


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#6 Mostlya

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Posted 18 October 2017 - 10:01 AM

So 51 500 Cash = 1.25 of potential Wave A. The implication would be a double irregular correction which is rare and seemingly impossible. Throwing this consideration into the pot. Wave 5 ends on July 2014 as a perfect 1.618 extension of Wave 3 (completing at the beginning of the last financial crisis). A then finds itself as an irregular ABC completing in August 2015 with B also irregular and very complex running for over 2 years now.

 

The entire structure is just one long set of traps where bulls and bears can't get a break. Time will tell if this last run up is the biggest trap of all or whether the sideways movement experienced over the last couple of years is simply a complex mid wave correction (as noted by Snippit) which would mean this bull should still have legs.

 

All the same 51 500 is the key level and the market seems to have respected this notion which is quite amazing considering how arbitrary and rare a double irregular correction is. It's been said that confirmation of Wave C is only found once 0.75% or so of wave A is completed. That would effectively mean the 200 weekly MA would come into play and would likely serve as this confirmation barrier. Thereafter it would complete either a 1.618 or 2.618 extension of Wave A. As it stands that would likely take it to the 100 Monthly MA and 200 Monthly MA respectively. 

 

2.618 of Wave A would also represent a 61.8% retracement of wave 5 which is the same retracement that wave 1 and wave 3 went through in this run up since 1998.

 

All of this is layered with confirmation basis and is really only a general scenario upon which to short but fundamental obviously confirm as well as momentum divergences as evidenced via monthly RSI. There are plenty of other Elliot wave type confirmations indicators about including the 4.236 extension of wave 3 from wave 1 etc. Too many to list.

 

I'd post a chart but honestly there's too much info here to capture on a single chart. It is a mess when dealing with 19 years of action but something worth looking at I think.


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#7 Snippit

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 02:40 PM

Some said 'Don't fight the FED' and they never stopped saying it...

Hedgeye_Fed_cartoon.jpg


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#8 Snippit

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Posted 14 October 2017 - 05:16 PM

AIERA is an AI robot share analyst developed by Wells Fargo and Amazon to track shares and then to make BUY,HOLD or SELL reccomendations on a daily or weekly view...

Found it so funny that "She " placed a SELL rating on Facebook and Google and HOLD on 11 other top US stocks...

Contrary to 80-90% of the human analysts that have BUY ratings on all these stocks...

 

It will be even more funny if "She" is right in the next week!!!

 

Just watched Max Keiser explain that human greed & stupidity (grupdidty?) has triggered mass economical suicide and Bitcoin is the first indication of algorithmic collusion between AI capable machines. Once the banking system is crippled it will move on and proliferate faster than organic creatures can think and strip them of their essential assets such as power, communication and defence systems. I think the only solution will be to bombard the planet with magnetic impulses to destroy these man made aliens, even if it means destroying the concept of ownership and wealth and greed and power and corruption and subservience. But first there needs to be a shortage of ammo.


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#9 Halfday

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 10:04 PM

AIERA is an AI robot share analyst developed by Wells Fargo and Amazon to track shares and then to make BUY,HOLD or SELL reccomendations on a daily or weekly view...

Found it so funny that "She " placed a SELL rating on Facebook and Google and HOLD on 11 other top US stocks...

Contrary to 80-90% of the human analysts that have BUY ratings on all these stocks...

 

It will be even more funny if "She" is right in the next week!!!


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#10 Mostlya

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 07:51 PM

Definitely a lot clearer on the Swix than the Top 40. Thank for having a look at the monthly.


Edited by Mostlya, 11 October 2017 - 07:52 PM.

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#11 Snippit

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 05:30 PM

If the swix is considered then there is a similar size between P2 and P4 here below, and when P4 includes the 1-2 there appears to be alternation betweenn them also. Then the 3rd breaks down into the bull 1,2 and start of 3 within P5. The only problem is the impulsive nature of the included 1st wave... so alternation is an issue and the only way around it is to declare the a-b-c of P4 a mid-wave correction within P3 and then hope for alternation with P2 when the real P4 arrives..

 

Swix_m_111017.png


Edited by Snippit, 11 October 2017 - 05:33 PM.

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#12 Mostlya

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 11:07 AM

I see a big picture like none before it and due entirely to global interventionism in markets which is the driver like none before it. There is no comfortable way back to free markets and so they must stay manipulated ad infinitum. The media no longer reports on national debt anywhere because it no longer matters, its just a number that has become meaningless. The Primary wave since the financial fraud crash of 2008 has been sideways for the last few years and just like a mid-wave churn before an extension. It can be seen as a muted correction leading into the next bull cycle or as a mid-wave bringing an extension by replication of P3. I prefer the latter. Similar behaviour can be seen on the DAX and S&P500 and most all indices that have clear signs of having been pumped beyond their station.

I remember when China was accused of manipulation of the markets. What a joke that is now.

There's certainly no doubt that the coming financial crisis will be wore than anything the world has seen. The Pension funding gaps alone are going to cause severe pain.

 

I actually see the last financial crisis in 2008 as a wave 4 for the JSE. The bull run since then being a wave 5 and the sideways move and recent break out as being a double irregular correction. We'll know soon if there's any truth to it because a break higher for the JSE would invalidate the double correction b. At these levels the extension of b is 1.25 of the length of A which is as far as the psychology of the pattern will allow before it fall apart and at that point one would certainly consider this a P3 as you've noted. Monthly RSI confirms this double correction case so far but if it moves higher would break the momentum to the upside.

 

The way this index is moving it's pretty hard to imagine it not moving higher as it continues to pull money into shares which have virtually no future value at these levels. As we know it's not foreign money anymore but rather the South Africa public which is certainly hard to grasp considering everything we're exposed to on a daily basis. I still believe the JSE and especially the top 40 is horribly exposed to a negative shift in investor sentiment i.e. Naspers, commodity shares, SA earning shares and some of the luxury brands that dominate the index. When it decides to correct it should necessitate a long and painful correction.


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#13 Snippit

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 10:28 AM

Appears to be the most unbroken run up in the Top 40 since the last crash.

@Snippet. Any thoughts on this potentially being a double irregular correction? It's the best wave pattern I can find to explain the Jse. Using 1998 or even before as the start of wave 1, the beginning of the emerging markets run up. Jse just doesn't seem to have properly corrected I.e. an ABC construction since that time period.

 

I see a big picture like none before it and due entirely to global interventionism in markets which is the driver like none before it. There is no comfortable way back to free markets and so they must stay manipulated ad infinitum. The media no longer reports on national debt anywhere because it no longer matters, its just a number that has become meaningless. The Primary wave since the financial fraud crash of 2008 has been sideways for the last few years and just like a mid-wave churn before an extension. It can be seen as a muted correction leading into the next bull cycle or as a mid-wave bringing an extension by replication of P3. I prefer the latter. Similar behaviour can be seen on the DAX and S&P500 and most all indices that have clear signs of having been pumped beyond their station.

I remember when China was accused of manipulation of the markets. What a joke that is now.


Edited by Snippit, 11 October 2017 - 10:29 AM.

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#14 Mostlya

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 09:09 AM

Appears to be the most unbroken run up in the Top 40 since the last crash.

@Snippet. Any thoughts on this potentially being a double irregular correction? It's the best wave pattern I can find to explain the Jse. Using 1998 or even before as the start of wave 1, the beginning of the emerging markets run up. Jse just doesn't seem to have properly corrected I.e. an ABC construction since that time period.
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#15 Mostlya

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 03:55 PM

I find monthly helps to fit the longer term onto the screen. The RSI (14) don't help so much to pick out divergence as it does with the lower resolutions.  

Cool thank for the info and the chart, much appreciated.


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#16 Snippit

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 03:27 PM

Thanks a lot. One more question if you don't mind, do you use a monthly chart at all to determine primary wave counts?

 

I find monthly helps to fit the longer term onto the screen. The RSI (14) don't help so much to pick out divergence as it does with the lower resolutions.  


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#17 Mostlya

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 12:24 PM

Thanks a lot. One more question if you don't mind, do you use a monthly chart at all to determine primary wave counts?
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#18 Snippit

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 11:58 AM

@Snippet what are you long term views on the Jse? Put another way what long term wave would you say the Jse is in considering the sideways moves it's experienced until the recent breakout?

 

ALSI general indices are busy entering minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 3 of Primary wave 3

This means approaching the half-way mark of the bull cycle that commenced early 2016. This means energetic uptrend continuation with periodic pull backs viz:

Minor 3 goes to pull back minor 4 then upleg minor 5 completes the intermediate 3 which pulls back into intermediate 4 with minor wave spalshing all over and then comes intermediate 5 which produces another 5 minor waves until the bull expires and Papa Primary bear takes over. Check it out here....

https://wavecount.blogspot.co.za/


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#19 Mostlya

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 10:32 AM

Hard to argue now that the central bank put has created the biggest mental blind spot in human history
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#20 Mostlya

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 06:53 AM

Anybody want to talk about this bubble? Most expensive and simultaneously the most complacent in history. It would seem to be the most far reaching speculative event ever.

Dark times ahead for all the ordinary people as a result of this.

@Snippet what are you long term views on the Jse? Put another way what long term wave would you say the Jse is in considering the sideways moves it's experienced until the recent breakout?
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