So 51 500 Cash = 1.25 of potential Wave A. The implication would be a double irregular correction which is rare and seemingly impossible. Throwing this consideration into the pot. Wave 5 ends on July 2014 as a perfect 1.618 extension of Wave 3 (completing at the beginning of the last financial crisis). A then finds itself as an irregular ABC completing in August 2015 with B also irregular and very complex running for over 2 years now.
The entire structure is just one long set of traps where bulls and bears can't get a break. Time will tell if this last run up is the biggest trap of all or whether the sideways movement experienced over the last couple of years is simply a complex mid wave correction (as noted by Snippit) which would mean this bull should still have legs.
All the same 51 500 is the key level and the market seems to have respected this notion which is quite amazing considering how arbitrary and rare a double irregular correction is. It's been said that confirmation of Wave C is only found once 0.75% or so of wave A is completed. That would effectively mean the 200 weekly MA would come into play and would likely serve as this confirmation barrier. Thereafter it would complete either a 1.618 or 2.618 extension of Wave A. As it stands that would likely take it to the 100 Monthly MA and 200 Monthly MA respectively.
2.618 of Wave A would also represent a 61.8% retracement of wave 5 which is the same retracement that wave 1 and wave 3 went through in this run up since 1998.
All of this is layered with confirmation basis and is really only a general scenario upon which to short but fundamental obviously confirm as well as momentum divergences as evidenced via monthly RSI. There are plenty of other Elliot wave type confirmations indicators about including the 4.236 extension of wave 3 from wave 1 etc. Too many to list.
I'd post a chart but honestly there's too much info here to capture on a single chart. It is a mess when dealing with 19 years of action but something worth looking at I think.