35851 replies to this topic

[Snippit]

JSE Top 40 Index – J200

 

 

The sideways uncertainty has continued. This daily view takes the more probable assumption of an extending Primary [3] now entering Intermediate (3). This gives the possibility that there will yet be alternation between [2] and [4] and the ratio of the price actions of [1] and [3] will be within the typical range.

 

https://el834862649....-40-index-j200/

 

 

 

[RBM]

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[Snippit]

Many will choose to deny this reality due to the amount of pain it will cause. Markets are currently so far disconnected from reality. Do you have an estimated duration till bottom target?

"The correction was sharp at 3 years duration for the 1929 event. The Elliott theory expects alternation of successive corrective patterns and so a 9 year period is more probable this time."

[RailRoad]

JSE Top 40 Index – J200

 

https://el834862649....-40-index-j200/

 

The weekly chart sees Cycle V in progress.

 

 

The daily chart sees Primary [5] being birthed.

 

 

The above charts reflect the current surprise recovery following 5 years of stagnant sideways action. Unfortunately the castle is built on sand as pointed to by [3] < [1] which requires [5] < [3] . The 5th wave is often confounding, especially the 5th of the 5th. The top will be the delayed SuperCycle top. The correction will be memorable.

 

Many will choose to deny this reality due to the amount of pain it will cause. Markets are currently so far disconnected from reality. Do you have an estimated duration till bottom target?

Edited by RailRoad, 24 May 2021 - 11:40 AM.

[Snippit]

JSE Top 40 Index – J200

 

https://el834862649....-40-index-j200/

 

The weekly chart sees Cycle V in progress.

 

 

The daily chart sees Primary [5] being birthed.

 

 

The above charts reflect the current surprise recovery following 5 years of stagnant sideways action. Unfortunately the castle is built on sand as pointed to by [3] < [1] which requires [5] < [3] . The 5th wave is often confounding, especially the 5th of the 5th. The top will be the delayed SuperCycle top. The correction will be memorable.

 

 

 

[Snippit]

ALSI Swix, JN43

 

https://el834862649....alsi-swix-jn43/

 

 

Supercycle correction (IV) is not in any hurry as it continues to await some company of a global nature. The aberration of the B Cycle signals that the controlling magic bubble is punctured and has commenced an expected slow loss of gas. The prospect of a C Cycle of 1.62 of the A Cycle is illustrated.

 

 

vigilate vestri tergum

[Snippit]

Top 40 Swix - Satrix ETF

 

The bear trend correcton algos appear to be on holiday.

 

 

 

[Snippit]

JSE, All Share Index, J203

 

This daily chart plots the course of the Supercycle correction that I have been observing. It is now approaching the completion of 3 years in service.

 

https://el834862649....are-index-j203/

 

 

This first of the 3 larger legs is Cycle A. The projection indicates the prospective target of the 1.62 Fib ratio of Primary [A] for Primary [C]. This compares closely with the ratio of the Intermediate © leg to the associated Intermediate [A] leg.

This could be caused by another and even longer full scale lockdown due to another strain of the virus, already called C-21 by some and even predicted by Mr & Mrs Gates. But I don’t even know how to spell conspiracy. No doubt those in-the-know will buy the dip, like they did before.

 

 

 

[Snippit]

JSE, ALSI, J203

The All Share Index puts in an impressive Intermediate (A) leg of the Primary [B] of the Cycle A of this Super cycle (IV) bear trend.

https://jsecharts.bl...-alsi-j203.html

 

 

rationes vitae traduceret

 

 

 

[Snippit]

JSE, ALSI Swix, JN43

The ALSI Swix has arrived at the 61.8% retrace target. Indications of a significant turning point for most everything abound.

https://jsecharts.bl...-swix-jn43.html

 

 

Don't get suckered

 

[Snippit]

MSCI Global ETF (Rands)  

The same weekly chart as before (below) has generated an excuse for an Intermediate 5th wave (visible on a hourly chart) which, if taken seriously, gives a reason for the apparent madness. The internals of [3] are playing a different chord which sounds better to me. Turnings are seen as still being indicated for XAU/USD, USD/ZAR, J150, GLD, and SPX  although there are sure to be many more. 

https://jsecharts.bl...-etf-rands.html

 

 

nolite facere quicquam

 

Edited by Snippit, 08 June 2020 - 02:42 PM.

[Pilotpilot]

Cool. I hereby bestow upon you free life membership of my fan club. You are both the first life member and first ordinary member. Its all yours so you are also in the Chair. Enjoy.

        Love it!!! I'm honored!

[Snippit]

Like the whole post and enjoy your comments........ and I love Hedgeye's witty sense of humor!

 

Thanks for sharing.....

 

Cool. I hereby bestow upon you free life membership of my fan club. You are both the first life member and first ordinary member. Its all yours so you are also in the Chair. Enjoy.

[Pilotpilot]

MSCI Global ETF (Rands)

Not the ALSI but a related species with occasional influence.

Here is a weekly chart for the Global MSCI ETF in Rands. It appears to have topped out of Cycle V. 

Primary wave [1] is longest and [5] is accordingly the shortest. It appears to be overly elevated like most 5th waves appear. And yet it tentatively awaits some further confirmation of the expected impact of the global lockdown madness or some second wave panic stations and does not want to leave its station without good cause.

On the other hand the hope is that the unprecedented liquidity injections can enable a resurgence of buybacks so as to create the false impressions as usual. More important is that the usual recipients of free cash can buy up the indices and then the economy can go do whatever it wants and zombie scarecrows will rule again.

To be expected after over a decade of the same thing. Most traders have never known anything different. 

 

 

https://jsecharts.bl...-etf-rands.html

 

 

A caestu praeiudicatum

 

 

 

Like the whole post and enjoy your comments........ and I love Hedgeye's witty sense of humor!

 

Thanks for sharing.....

[Snippit]

MSCI Global ETF (Rands)

Not the ALSI but a related species with occasional influence.

Here is a weekly chart for the Global MSCI ETF in Rands. It appears to have topped out of Cycle V. 

Primary wave [1] is longest and [5] is accordingly the shortest. It appears to be overly elevated like most 5th waves appear. And yet it tentatively awaits some further confirmation of the expected impact of the global lockdown madness or some second wave panic stations and does not want to leave its station without good cause.

On the other hand the hope is that the unprecedented liquidity injections can enable a resurgence of buybacks so as to create the false impressions as usual. More important is that the usual recipients of free cash can buy up the indices and then the economy can go do whatever it wants and zombie scarecrows will rule again.

To be expected after over a decade of the same thing. Most traders have never known anything different. 

 

 

https://jsecharts.bl...-etf-rands.html

 

 

A caestu praeiudicatum

 

 

 

[Snippit]

ALSI Futures

This daily chart for ALSI futures shows the resistance. A bucket of cold water is overdue. The algos will feel a chill in their cloud.

https://jsecharts.bl...si-futures.html

 

 

facilis desideraturus

 

 

dead roots

Edited by Snippit, 11 May 2020 - 11:30 AM.

[Snippit]

USD/ZAR

This hourly chart for the Rand/USD pair shows the development of Minor wave 4 and the indications for uptrend (Rand weakening) resumption.

https://jsecharts.bl.../05/usdzar.html

 

 

cave cerebrum damnum

 

 

 

[Snippit]

ALSI Swix, JN43

The bounce arrived at the 1.62 extension but is seemingly reluctant to let some of the hot air out. Should it continue to huff and puff then the next significant resistance is at the 61.8% retrace. Such levitation can be from further Rand weakening.

Much is overpriced whilst fear of the unknown got turfed a while back and expectations are floating on cloud 9.

https://jsecharts.bl...-swix-jn43.html

 

 

nolite oblivisci obseres

 

 

Edited by Snippit, 08 May 2020 - 01:48 PM.

[Snippit]

ALSI Swix, JN43

The bounce arrived at the 1.62 extension but is seemingly reluctant to let some of the hot air out. Should it continue to huff and puff then the next significant resistance is at the 61.8% retrace. Such levitation can be from further Rand weakening. Much is overpriced whilst fear of the unknown got turfed a while back and expectations are floating on cloud 9.

https://jsecharts.bl...-swix-jn43.html

 

 

nolite oblivisci obseres

 

 

[Snippit]

JSE, ALSI Swix, JN43

Update 19th March:

This update of the ALSI Swix index sees the completion of Cycle A of the Supercycle correction and thereby the turning point into the bear trend correction of Cycle B.

 

https://jsecharts.bl...-swix-jn43.html

 

 

rursus circa