35854 replies to this topic

[OceanWalz]

will lunar holiday actually help the potential lame rally to next few days ? possibly China's abstentia for next few days will help I think.

 

apart from China's disappointing numbers in growth and manufacturing and woes of fragile 5 emerging (SA is one) the emerging countries makes for less enthusiastic consumers and hence forward earnings on wh present stock prices are tried to establish in the market place

 

Lunar holiday times

Hong Kong – January 31 to February 3 2014 are public holidays in Hong Kong and non-trading days for HKEx’s markets. Trading on HKEx’s markets will resume on February 4.

Taiwan Stock Exchange closed through February 4.

Malaysia – January 31 to February 3

Singapore – Closed January 31

 

[fabes]

What are the odds of finishing up round the 42200 mark today?

42200:1. Lol

[K~~]

What are the odds of finishing up round the 42200 mark today?

0.00000000000000001% 

 

k

[AJS]

And S, agree, this might very well be wave B up to 1820-ish before a snap of wave 3 down on SPY.

[AJS]

Bit of a skewed picture...

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•  AMZN Sales vs Workers.jpg   82.33KB   18 downloads

[AJS]

Haha, how you like the Amazon chart! Slapped you whether you were long or short.

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•  amazon.jpg   47.66KB   18 downloads

[AJS]

Google earnings missed

 

Quite a lot yes!

 

*edit* same for Amazon! Eish, not good!

Edited by AJS, 30 January 2014 - 11:22 PM.

[AJS]

Amazon and Google spike down.

 

Amazon down 8%

 

Jeepers, check that spike on Google yes.

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[Zero Hedge]

Amazon and Google spike down.
 
Amazon down 8%

Google earnings missed

[Sunesis]

More than 50 companies report after the closing bell.

The big ones are Google and Amazon

 

If they beat earnings Nasdaq will fly. It will be good for risk on sentiment the whole day tomorrow.

I expecting a spike 

Amazon and Google spike down.

 

Amazon down 8%

[Sunesis]

More than 50 companies report after the closing bell.

The big ones are Google and Amazon

 

If they beat earnings Nasdaq will fly. It will be good for risk on sentiment the whole day tomorrow.

I expecting a spike 

 

[Zero Hedge]

 Posted by HDB on 12 January 2014 - 09:44 PM in ShareChat

A quick recon i do everyday in morning before opening :
 
Ps note: All IG cash for Alsi and Ftse and also using bid prices
 
 
Alsi IG close at 5pm  Friday  40950
Alsi IG futures at  6.30pm  when FTSE closes 40930
 
 
Ftse IG at 5pm Sa Time when our market closes  6745
Ftse IG at 6.30pm SA time when FTSE closed    6740
 
Rand/pound exchange rate at 5pm  R17.6512
Rand/pound exchange rate at 6.30pm R17.5903
 
Alsi IG as of now 41027
Ftse as of now  6760
Rand /pound as of now  R17.544
 
My calculation of what Alsi should be :
 
6760-6740 / 6740  times 40930   =  122 points  so Alsi should be up to 40930 + 122  =  41052
 
However rand went from 17.5903 to 17.544
 
Therefore Alsi should fall by   17.5903 -17.544  /  17.544  = .0027  times 58% 41052 =   62 points  
 
My calculation of current Alsi =  41052 less 62  = 40990    Current is   41027
 
So 37 points difference is negligible.
 
However i will do all these calculation again at 8am tomorrow morning as futures and pound rate changes
 
 
S is right when he say easier to trade Dow.. There are very few uncertainties to condsider when trading the Dow..
 
However when trading the Alsi there are  100 and one things to consider. Thats why its called the beast and at some times one thinks that it is doing its own thing but that is not correct.
 
Factors to consider first thing in morning before market opens to see which way we will be going :
1. Performance of Ftse futures which is nevetheless influenced by the American markets
2. The pound exchange rate - about 58% of our market is listed in the Ftse
3. As we are resource driven, the dollar exchange rate and price of resources. About 8% of our Top 40 is effected here.
4. The performance of 10cent in Hong Kong as this effects Naspers which makes up about 7% of our TOP 40
5. Performance of Sasol in New York night before as Sasol makes up about 6% of our TOP 40.
6. The Swiss franc/ rand exchange rate as this effects CFR which makes up about 10% of the Index.
7. See what is happening to BHP in Australia as this makes up about 13% of the Index. Ps this 13% is already included in the 58% listed in FTE.
8. Check Australia, Shangai, Hong Kong and Japanese markets to see how they are doing as this may lead to some direction in our market!
9. Watch the economic calender for the day to see if any major news may effect markets.
10. Check any good or bad news on other Bric nations which may effect our market or cause sell off.
10. Last but not least check local news headlines to see if Govt or Malema has not messed up again by making some radical statements in the press which may effect our market only. Also  if any strikes planned. 
 
So if FTSE and Dow are flying does not mean we will also be flying. If rand strengthens against the pound and dollar and resource prices weaken, we could have a red day while rest of world is flying
 
Ps : I may be slightly wrong with my calculations of the TOP40 % constituents above so if anyone can correct it please do!!!

RE constituents...NPN has outperformed by so much that I think it contributes more than 10% now. RESI is around 30%.

[Zero Hedge]

Thanks for the clue HDB, but do you care to elaborate please. I always aim to learn, hence the reason I asked the question. Yes I know we are very much linked to the USD and pound for various reasons, but rarely use it when trading. Some days yes, but mostly not. Last week everyone was chasing the exchange rate until it didn't impact anymore where I followed a more careful approach which paid off, so I would very much like to know when and how to better take into account the exchange rate. I'm sure you would agree with me when I say sometimes the alsi has a mind of its own, but somewhere buried is a clue.

So to summarise watch the dual listed stocks in London, watch GBPZAR, watch CFR, NPN, SOL and the Banks and you will understand why ALSI is doing what it's doing. To understand moves in miners it goes without saying that you need to keep eye on Fx and commodity prices.

[Zero Hedge]

Please ignore typo...SOL not London listed...apologies.

[Zero Hedge]

Thanks for the clue HDB, but do you care to elaborate please. I always aim to learn, hence the reason I asked the question. Yes I know we are very much linked to the USD and pound for various reasons, but rarely use it when trading. Some days yes, but mostly not. Last week everyone was chasing the exchange rate until it didn't impact anymore where I followed a more careful approach which paid off, so I would very much like to know when and how to better take into account the exchange rate. I'm sure you would agree with me when I say sometimes the alsi has a mind of its own, but somewhere buried is a clue.

Let's keep it simple...a number of the heavy weights in the ALSI are listed in London where the price is made. The ZAR strengthened by about 1.5% vs GBP today. Let's assume for purposes of this illiustration that BIL,AGL,SOL,OML,BAT and SAB are all up 1% in London on the day, when one adjusts for FX move they will all be around 50bps lower in ZAR...if not there is an arb opportunity which will be quickly closed by dedicated arb desks of international brokers. Add to that the fact that NPN,SOL,CFR and Banks were also down today and it's not difficult to see why we are in the red.

[fabes]

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="chubby" data-cid="228953" data-time="1391111214"><blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="fabes" data-time="1391109941">

Thanks Chubby. See it's also easily accessible under the "most liked" link.

[fabes]

Thanks for the clue HDB, but do you care to elaborate please. I always aim to learn, hence the reason I asked the question. Yes I know we are very much linked to the USD and pound for various reasons, but rarely use it when trading. Some days yes, but mostly not. Last week everyone was chasing the exchange rate until it didn't impact anymore where I followed a more careful approach which paid off, so I would very much like to know when and how to better take into account the exchange rate. I'm sure you would agree with me when I say sometimes the alsi has a mind of its own, but somewhere buried is a clue.

fabes good look at my post in alsi thread posted about 3 weeks ago maybe 30 pages back where i proved alsi does not have a mind of its own. I reconciled ig after hours trading. Read it properly as everything is there to make trading the alsi that much easier. This thing about alsi being a beast and doing its own thing are only said by people who do not know the internal mechanics on how it operates. Go to my posts,its all there!,,,,,,,,,,and dont forget to say thanks

I really found that post very insightful and studied it and do make use of it. I did say thanks, but THANKS again. I really appreciate the insight and advice as it can only improve my trading. I must admit haven't had time to do that this week as I've been swamped and hence my poor results this week.

Again thank you for your and every single one's contributions on this forum. One doesn't always realise but is has a big impact on the next's persons trading.

[HDB]

Thanks for the clue HDB, but do you care to elaborate please. I always aim to learn, hence the reason I asked the question. Yes I know we are very much linked to the USD and pound for various reasons, but rarely use it when trading. Some days yes, but mostly not. Last week everyone was chasing the exchange rate until it didn't impact anymore where I followed a more careful approach which paid off, so I would very much like to know when and how to better take into account the exchange rate. I'm sure you would agree with me when I say sometimes the alsi has a mind of its own, but somewhere buried is a clue.

fabes good look at my post in alsi thread posted about 3 weeks ago maybe 30 pages back where i proved alsi does not have a mind of its own. I reconciled ig after hours trading. Read it properly as everything is there to make trading the alsi that much easier. This thing about alsi being a beast and doing its own thing are only said by people who do not know the internal mechanics on how it operates. Go to my posts,its all there!,,,,,,,,,,and dont forget to say thanks

[fabes]

That was a good call S. I'm currently only trading SNP as I find it little bit less risky than Dow atm. Also very risk aware on international account as I don't want to touch my profits of last week, so I'm waiting for confirmation of direction first.

 

You should be set for nice risk free trades from that profit.

[fabes]

Thanks for the clue HDB, but do you care to elaborate please. I always aim to learn, hence the reason I asked the question. Yes I know we are very much linked to the USD and pound for various reasons, but rarely use it when trading. Some days yes, but mostly not. Last week everyone was chasing the exchange rate until it didn't impact anymore where I followed a more careful approach which paid off, so I would very much like to know when and how to better take into account the exchange rate. I'm sure you would agree with me when I say sometimes the alsi has a mind of its own, but somewhere buried is a clue.