35854 replies to this topic

[Plasma]

Hi A.

See some big bids on TOPDWW @400 and @390. Perhaps anticipation for a bit Friday profit taking.

Cannot eat peanuts anymore....my tande is al stomp geslyp.....

[Argento]

 

Hi Argento. So what is your take atm, we are definately not rocketing any more, yes Us will pull us up when they open but looks like we might just pull back again, strike season, stronger rand and seasonal trend still at play, is your final down flag still at play with this a final top forming. I feel like going short big time at 36200 if we reach that today???

 
Bc,

One shouldn't feel but know, at the moment momentum and seasonals are pointing to a bullish setup!

This is a very difficult market with mixed signals, best to protect ones capital until it becomes more clear!

A

[bear catcher]

Hi Argento. So what is your take atm, we are definately not rocketing any more, yes Us will pull us up when they open but looks like we might just pull back again, strike season, stronger rand and seasonal trend still at play, is your final down flag still at play with this a final top forming. I feel like going short big time at 36200 if we reach that today???

[Argento]

 

The Ben influence is/was much stronger than anyone ever could imagine.
But ignoring any form of TA (gaps, cross-over systems, etc) makes it a 100% guessing (gambling) game.
Who predicted with fair certainty Ben's speech and the market's reaction to it?
Stick to your own (personal) system with strick risk management (SL) until this play out.
 
PS. Note to self: Let your winners run (with trailing SL).

The drop in June was just TA and seasonal factor, June is bearish and it turned exactly at the end of month together with a top formation, that was not just old Ben!

Patterns either consolidate or distribute, clearly this was not a top and old Ben got it going,but each for his own strategy!

Up to us to use them correctly and that comes only with experience and a well developed system, but again, not that easy in this volatile environment!

A

Edited by Argento, 11 July 2013 - 12:40 PM.

[CJV002]

This is why i like IG so much.  Got it late last night +- 8pm after Reuters reported on the FED minutes with a long at +- 35,283 and out this morning early at 36,000.  The minutes and speech was a clear indication of upwards movement.

[Lekkerry]

Get out of jail card! Amusing! 

 

Hope it works out for you.

 

Yep Lekker..hoping she tests that soon..Looking for my get out of jail card!

[JJBen]

IMO, this market is unplayable using TA, cycles etc.

If Bernanke said he was sticking to his timeline last night, You would have been in the money big time.

Just my view. 

The Ben influence is/was much stronger than anyone ever could imagine.

But ignoring any form of TA (gaps, cross-over systems, etc) makes it a 100% guessing (gambling) game.

Who predicted with fair certainty Ben's speech and the market's reaction to it?

Stick to your own (personal) system with strick risk management (SL) until this play out.

 

PS. Note to self: Let your winners run (with trailing SL).

[Mhlato]

IMO, this market is unplayable using TA, cycles etc.

If Bernanke said he was sticking to his timeline last night, You would have been in the money big time.

Just my view. 

 

....and if i stucked to my system and ignore what Ben might have said, i would have been in the money big time.

 

But i agree with you regarding to cycles and seasonal trends. PRICE ACTION RULES.

[Lekkerry]

Hot air, when cooled down, falls quickly, by the look of things. Support @ 750 (J200) will be fancy test.

[du plessis]

Sorry, was not rubbing anything.
 
Allways learning something from mistakes and making notes of it. It will come in handy in the future.

Can anyone tell me why is plat field suspended .I see why have a lot of cautionary announcements on their sens

[Beorn]

Eish  Mhlato...Rub it in why don't you! It was yesterdays price action..the rejection of 35500 that got me scared I guess but in hindsight I did need us to end at 34750 for my theory to work out and it didn't and I didn't take notice of that warning(I use forecast patterns as well). Digressing from my plan just meant I was taking a punt and I wanted to play the noise coming out of the US and got burnt I guess. You live, learn and lose and hopefully learn again

 

IMO, this market is unplayable using TA, cycles etc.

If Bernanke said he was sticking to his timeline last night, You would have been in the money big time.

Just my view. 

[Mhlato]

Eish  Mhlato...Rub it in why don't you! It was yesterdays price action..the rejection of 35500 that got me scared I guess but in hindsight I did need us to end at 34750 for my theory to work out and it didn't and I didn't take notice of that warning(I use forecast patterns as well). Digressing from my plan just meant I was taking a punt and I wanted to play the noise coming out of the US and got burnt I guess. You live, learn and lose and hopefully learn again

 

Sorry, was not rubbing anything.

 

Allways learning something from mistakes and making notes of it. It will come in handy in the future.

[Argento]

 

I wonder if Ben would've reacted the same if he was still in power come January 2014.
I get the idea he feels a flying fiddle what will happen then. Nurse the S&P baby until next year (~1650-1750), and blame the bear market on the next guy!
 
If we get ALSI 40k by year end, a bear market (20%) will mean a retrace to 32k... Alternatively we can have the current highs down to ~30250.
Our cyclical bull has been running for over 5 years now. It has to end, but like RS quoted: "top pickers and bottom pickers become cotton pickers".

Agree with you on the 5 year bullrun that is in its final stages, looking at the weeklies she is showing marginal positive divergence so changes are good we are going for the previous top from here or higher.

Could be busy with a huge top formation for what is coming next year...when the FED eventually pulls the plug and Bernanke retires in the Canadian mountains!LOL

A

[Mhlato]

Yep...I don't think people realize that the SP500 just passed a major resistence level @ 1624 which will now serve as a major support level. We are in the process of  putting in another top somewhere around the the 37000 level..Impossible I hear you say!!!

 

chubby, i am curious, what happened over the last 2 days that made you changed your mind?

[Argento]

 

Bernanke tries to say they operate independent from the market, But he actually is the market's bit#h.
Any dip,, he runs out and says no no no, we wont stop. Please just keep inflating please.
Until it bursts, and he will be remembered as the idiot that could not see the bubbles he created.

 
Totally agree, this is not healthy and sustainable and think the big blow will come in the bond markets, just a matter of time..!

Just wonder how it will fit in next year and how low she will go,maybe this is the catalyst that will cause the next big bear drop!But as you said, don't fight the fed...

A

[JJBen]

I wonder if Ben would've reacted the same if he was still in power come January 2014.

I get the idea he feels a flying fiddle what will happen then. Nurse the S&P baby until next year (~1650-1750), and blame the bear market on the next guy!

 

If we get ALSI 40k by year end, a bear market (20%) will mean a retrace to 32k... Alternatively we can have the current highs down to ~30250.

Our cyclical bull has been running for over 5 years now. It has to end, but like RS quoted: "top pickers and bottom pickers become cotton pickers".

[bear catcher]

Holding on to shorts reason will come to markets,I already see our market calming

[K~~]

The higher the climb, the further the fall! Will wait patiently..

Just nasty...a man with so much power defying all indicators, so it has begun..but the other way it seems!:0)

There have been almost 6000 points accumulated within the consolidation band so me shorts got stopped this morning, main bearish downtrend line breached as well so sitting on the sidelines for now!

A

[Beorn]

Just nasty...a man with so much power defying all indicators, so it has begun..but the other way it seems!:0)

There have been almost 6000 points accumulated within the consolidation band so me shorts got stopped this morning, main bearish downtrend line breached as well so sitting on the sidelines for now!

A

 

Bernanke tries to say they operate independent from the market, But he actually is the market's bit#h.

Any dip,, he runs out and says no no no, we wont stop. Please just keep inflating please.

Until it bursts, and he will be remembered as the idiot that could not see the bubbles he created.

[Argento]

Just nasty...a man with so much power defying all indicators, so it has begun..but the other way it seems!:0)

There have been almost 6000 points accumulated within the consolidation band so me shorts got stopped this morning, main bearish downtrend line breached as well so sitting on the sidelines for now!

A