35854 replies to this topic

[AJS]

We might even see 41300 - 41500...

[Ninja]

Me fully loaded with em shorts in all corners.... Will never be able to pick the exact top or sweet spot, but high enough I hope!!! Waiting patiently for red hanger sale!!!!

[snoop]

Anybody shorting this baby yet

[bear catcher]

Looks like a pump and dump Sunesis style coming up

[OceanWalz]

Thanks for that A - so consensus is S&P to underside of their 50dMA , our 40900ish to enter a short for T40 F's target 39000 before higher ( I am seeing even lower to 38,000 ish) 

Already reached almost 40800 so upside to 40900 target is not worth it unless the TP move up.

 

 I would have thought the market would have been more negative on poorer than expected employment nums

[Redeemer]

well played David! You slaughtered the goliath

 

Longs closed at 800 from 39950

[davidp13]

Longs closed at 800 from 39950

[Argento]

everyone, including me, seems to have targets to 40800/900 on T40F's - also coincide w S&P target of 18013/22 ish

--but normally feb should be last new high before market plays Lemming - so what is view on past 40900 and rather 42000ish.??

how much higher than 40900 must it go before give up those new shorts from 40900 ( many think tMr Market may well try this)-- well it is something to ponder. any comments?

Hi O,

 

Just my 2c but I think the TOP40 has seen its high for the year, if you look at the weekly MACD the major correction for 2014 has kicked off, but as we know mr market does not fall in a straight line!

 

But...if you look at history our markets have the tendancy to top or bottom before the US, they had a high momentum top and bullphases do not end like that, so very possible the US is going for a new high in March/April, where as we will only see the 42000 level again...then the mini bearmarket will resume!

 

More short term I am ready with my shorts as this wave B leg up is almost at its target (Monday?) before the red hanger sale starts again and mark the low of this phase by next week...!

 

A

Edited by Argento, 07 February 2014 - 04:00 PM.

[JBlack]

Talk about a violent reaction to bad NFP data..... Woah!

Just shows you, doesn't matter how sound your method and strategy is, if you have an open position you are at risk....

[JBlack]

Talk about a violent reaction to bad NFP data..... Woah!

[Redeemer]

Big magnet at 40680

[OceanWalz]

everyone, including me, seems to have targets to 40800/900 on T40F's - also coincide w S&P target of 18013/22 ish

--but normally feb should be last new high before market plays Lemming - so what is view on past 40900 and rather 42000ish.??

how much higher than 40900 must it go before give up those new shorts from 40900 ( many think tMr Market may well try this)-- well it is something to ponder. any comments?

[K~~]

K

Do you factor in the probability of either side, ie should you believe the probability of the target price being realized is much higher than a return move to the support....do you still not take the trade?

Yes, I do. For instance, I think the probability of going higher now is better than to drop.

 

But for me to take a long I need her to drop to say 40400, and show evidence of reversal (use your favourite indicators here on lower timeframes). 

 

Now my stop will be 40200 and target 40900. R:R 200:500 = 1:2.5

 

Great trade right there.

 

If this does not happen, I sit out! Risk of account emptying is too great.

 

Hope this helps.

 

K

Edited by K~~, 07 February 2014 - 01:33 PM.

[Redeemer]

Agreed K~~. I'm also teaching myself to do this kind of math before every trade. Once I'm happy with the set-up (charts etc) and the R:R, I then enter trade and sit tight. And on top of it all, what gives lots of peace, is a position size that mirrors size of account. It just makes it easy to stick to your trading rules.

 

 

Let's take the current position: 40600

 

Upside target: 40900

Downside support 40200.

 

For a long: That's 400:300 R:R. (1.3:1) - I need it to be at least 1:2

 

Not good enough for me. (For ANY position size).

 

So I'm sitting out.

 

K

[Plasma]

K

Do you factor in the probability of either side, ie should you believe the probability of the target price being realized is much higher than a return move to the support....do you still not take the trade?

[Plasma]

Thanks guys for the responses...appreciate all the perspectives. Guess I feel a bit sorry for myself. Had a high degree of confidence in the setup....a number of parameters came together nicely .. But for some reasons the opportunity passed me by. Come down to having been away from the screen for a few minutes, given other factors. Must eventually learn something from my mistakes.

[K~~]

Hi Plasma

 

Please see trail of posts below vis-a-vis my long. Yes, I had to hang on through that scary drop. And I agree fully with K~~ here, medium term plays seem to be safer these days (unless you're a pro scalper like Jacks). Remember, prior to these longs 2 days ago, I had a short that I hung onto for about 4 days to bag 900+ pips (K~~ did 1000+ in the same period).

Also, I don't find sense in a 500 pip SL, if I'm expecting a move of less than 500pips...

And by the way, I have a small account ...so I use the smaller contracts. Size doesn't matter

Let's take the current position: 40600

 

Upside target: 40900

Downside support 40200.

 

For a long: That's 400:300 R:R. (1.3:1) - I need it to be at least 1:2

 

Not good enough for me. (For ANY position size).

 

So I'm sitting out.

 

K

Edited by K~~, 07 February 2014 - 01:06 PM.

[Redeemer]

Hi Plasma

 

Please see trail of posts below vis-a-vis my long. Yes, I had to hang on through that scary drop. And I agree fully with K~~ here, medium term plays seem to be safer these days (unless you're a pro scalper like Jacks). Remember, prior to these longs 2 days ago, I had a short that I hung onto for about 4 days to bag 900+ pips (K~~ did 1000+ in the same period).

Also, I don't find sense in a 500 pip SL, if I'm expecting a move of less than 500pips...

And by the way, I have a small account ...so I use the smaller contracts. Size doesn't matter

 

Long @40037 (IG). The bull is about to breathe again!

 

 

REdeemer if 40000 breaks i hope you have a stop loss in place.

 

 

hanging on for dear life

SL still intact though.

 

 

S/L for any longs need to be at 39600. Volatility is more than likely to kill stops higher than that...

 

If 39600 goes, look out below!

 

K

 

 

Thanks K~~

I expect a bounce of a 1000 pips or more in the coming days...hence I got an SL of 500 (at 39500) - for an R:R of 1:2.

However, if she breaks 39600, I'll consider a full hedge and remove the SL (won't wait for her to hit 39500).

 

 

That's about right, R. Got a target of 40900 or so for my long @828.

 

Let's see where she goes. There's a lot of longs out there, so don't expect her to move too fast (no good short squeeze...)

 

K

[K~~]

To those who made these 100s of pips since yesterday morning....

If you went long around or before 0900 yesterday morning....did you comfortably sit through that dip from 0930 to 1100?? Reason for the question is your psychological state during that period...given the fact that it was a 400 point drop...or what? Did some have a 500 point SL range? In which case it would not have mattered. Just wondering ....trying to perhaps build up a longer term perspective when there appears to be a good probability of something materializing and have to deal wide such wild things. Suppose it has got to do something with the account size as well.

Hi P

 

My trades are mostly medium term. Daily movements are just too unpredictable, and mostly turns out to be luck (or lack thereof).

 

Rather wait for a sure setup, and then place your stops a reasonable away from support, to avoid being flushed out.

 

I've said it here and I'll say it again: Account SIZE has nothing to do with it. What matters is CORRECT POSITION SIZE!!! That way if it goes against you, your account stays intact. 

 

You might get lucky with one massive trade, but then you'll want to do it again and get wiped.

 

Prosperous trading!

 

K 

[Lekkerry]

Plasma, that drop knocked my trade out. But I climbed back in later at a better level than the previous trade, if I recall correctly. My reasoning was that the 1d was telling, so that dip was just that,a  dip in the grander scheme. So even though my trade was stopped out, I "knew" the correct direction was up. From an intraday perspective, I doubt that dropped was foreseen. Trading is about your net position: to have an improved net position end of day / week or month.

 

Trading is like water sports, you need to constantly adjust your grip / seat / planing. At times you do hit a wave that knocks you off course, but then need to readjust. Nothing new I guess.

 

To those who made these 100s of pips since yesterday morning....

If you went long around or before 0900 yesterday morning....did you comfortably sit through that dip from 0930 to 1100?? Reason for the question is your psychological state during that period...given the fact that it was a 400 point drop...or what? Did some have a 500 point SL range? In which case it would not have mattered. Just wondering ....trying to perhaps build up a longer term perspective when there appears to be a good probability of something materializing and have to deal wide such wild things. Suppose it has got to do something with the account size as well.