35854 replies to this topic

[Sunesis]

SA40 slide is only starting....!

 

A

Just remember that I make most of my judgement on Dow,FTSE and Dax.

SA40 is a secondary market. It has it's own nightmares

[Argento]

SA40 slide is only starting....!

 

A

I am bit longer term so shorter timeframe guess you can be right...but trend is down!

 

A

[Argento]

Out of my shorts $$$

 

I'm buying now:

 

Dow 16512

DAX 9480

FTSE 6730

 

SA40 will be a good buy now, just put 40950 stop

SA40 slide is only starting....!

 

A

[Sunesis]

Sold FTSE 6760

Out of my shorts $$$

 

I'm buying now:

 

Dow 16512

DAX 9480

FTSE 6730

 

SA40 will be a good buy now, just put 40950 stop

[K~~]

For all the Perma-Bears out there: Article on Investing.com by Gareth Soloway

 

On Monday, Janet Yellen was confirmed by the Senate to be the next Federal Reserve Chairman. History will judge her to be the one holding the markets reins as the next mega stock-market bubble collapses. It is somewhat unfair that she will bear the bulk of the blame as a majority of the damage will have been inflicted by her predecessor Ben Bernanke. However, she has always been as dovish, if not more than Bernanke, never dissenting.

The bed for the United States and the world has already been made. At this stage it is just degrees of bad that Janet Yellen can control. How much more money is printed? How much higher does the stock market go as the bubble inflates? How much more debt will the U.S government take on and how much higher will the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve go?

Top 3 Reasons This Market Will Collapse In 2014-15
1. The Federal Reserve Balance sheet has risen to over $4 trillion. The Federal Reserve is still planning on printing $75 billion every single month going forward. As the economy continues to improve, inflation is going to jump (this always happens with a better economy, even ignoring the massive printing of money that has been done). History has shown us that when inflation starts, it is very hard to control. A good example is China in recent history. In addition, never in history has this much money been printed.

2. Rates are going much higher and soon. We have already seen the 10 yr yield surge above 3%, up about 100% from its recent lows. As much as the Federal Reserve wishes it could control rates, there will be a breaking point where the flood gates open (it likely started already). Rising rates will put a major halt to economic growth as the borrowing of money becomes too expensive for most. Housing will take another hit as well. This means higher unemployment and lower economic growth...just as the economy was starting to do better.

3. The stock market will crash. The stock market has risen 150% off the 2009 lows (without any major corrections) partly because the world is not ending but mostly because the Federal Reserve has been there to backstop any negatives with more printing of money. That money has artificially deflated rates causing money to flow into the stock market. The bottom line is that the market is on a drug called QE. There is no fear of anything because the market feels the Federal Reserve will always be there to bail it out. As the Federal Reserve lowers the amount printed, the market will stall in these upper levels (starting to see that now). As rates rise and economic activity start to stall out later in 2014, the market will hope for more intervention from the Federal Reserve, however quickly realize the Federal Reserve's former tactics will not work. This is where the major freakout will happen. Imagine drug withdrawal.

As Janet Yellen takes control of the Federal Reserve, the markets expect more of the same. While the bed has already been made, she will likely make it worse by continuing to feed the drug of QE into the market and economy. There is only disaster waiting at the end of this ride. There is no way you can print over $4 trillion dollars and not have some negative overdose down the line. The markets are priced to perfection and the dark clouds can be seen on the horizon. The Federal Reserve portrays itself as having the ability to always control the outcome. However, we clearly know from history this is not the case. Beware the bubble collapse cycle which hits in mid 2014-15.

Gareth Soloway

[JBlack]

No great sparks last night on US market. SP500 up from yesterday  , repelled from 1840 , up then repelled 1838 , stood up again and repelled near close at1838, but only just closing 1837.8 shows there are buyers eyeing previous heights 

Thinks Dec ADPemployment reports and FOMC meeting minutes could rattle cages later though - so to short from 41600 or not - I know charts say DOWN on bigger time frames , but biggest pain strategy is forcing a Short covering with ( dont have figures w me ) what is probably a huge percentage of market being bear.

EU retail sales at 12 and then the ADP payroll data. The payroll data might make the market react normally today - i.e. good news = good news and bad news = bad news because the FED's focus has left unemployment and is suppose to focus on inflation and growth now? 

[OceanWalz]

Higher hanger higher prices tomorrow on JSE?

It seems to me that if the S&P can hold 1834-1840 overnight it indicates consolidation and  bears have to wait even longer. Higher than 1843 ish resistance then there will be some serious short covering (world is too high on consensus of Bear market to at least 1810) to follow affecting also  our ALSI tomorrow as everyone thinks (correctly or incorrectly) that previous highs of out T40F's  will revisit and overdo our previous 42000 

 

so double bottom idea and retest of high? and SP500 tonite under 1828 I ascribe more to idea of ball being hit down again and sink from there to at least 1818ish with move up to highs from there or sink from the 1818 ish to 1810 at least

So Lets see if 1843 tonite or drip down 

just my view

No great sparks last night on US market. SP500 up from yesterday  , repelled from 1840 , up then repelled 1838 , stood up again and repelled near close at1838, but only just closing 1837.8 shows there are buyers eyeing previous heights 

Thinks Dec ADPemployment reports and FOMC meeting minutes could rattle cages later though - so to short from 41600 or not - I know charts say DOWN on bigger time frames , but biggest pain strategy is forcing a Short covering with ( dont have figures w me ) what is probably a huge percentage of market being bear.

[AJS]

Don't quite like all this green I see.   

 

But then again: Let the charts do the talking...

[AJS]

Don't quite like all this green I see.   

[K~~]

Just sold Dow at 16541

Hey S, congrats on your trades!

 

If you care to publish this, what is your win % ??

 

From your posts, this seems to me to be higher than 90% ??

 

K

[fabes]

S, what's your trades today for the Dow?

Just sold Dow at 16541

Thanks s. What time do you expect a drop?

And well played!


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[OceanWalz]

Higher hanger higher prices tomorrow on JSE?

It seems to me that if the S&P can hold 1834-1840 overnight it indicates consolidation and  bears have to wait even longer. Higher than 1843 ish resistance then there will be some serious short covering (world is too high on consensus of Bear market to at least 1810) to follow affecting also  our ALSI tomorrow as everyone thinks (correctly or incorrectly) that previous highs of out T40F's  will revisit and overdo our previous 42000 

 

so double bottom idea and retest of high? and SP500 tonite under 1828 I ascribe more to idea of ball being hit down again and sink from there to at least 1818ish with move up to highs from there or sink from the 1818 ish to 1810 at least

So Lets see if 1843 tonite or drip down 

just my view

[cuzin]

Don't you think with the rest of the world green and going strong it will drag the SA40 up?

I am very bearish on SA40 just keep you shorts.

Emerging markets ETF just broke key support.

I would not buy SA40

[Sunesis]

HI S, give me some insight why you trading Dow instead of S&P ?? are you trying to take the tech element out and focus on the industrial?? Than

Dow is just more volitile.

 

A like a bit of a beast

[OceanWalz]

Just sold Dow at 16541

HI S, give me some insight why you trading Dow instead of S&P ?? are you trying to take the tech element out and focus on the industrial?? Thanks

[Sunesis]

Awesome. Really well done. Any thoughts on SA40?
 

I am very bearish on SA40 just keep you shorts.

 

Emerging markets ETF just broke key support.

 

I would not buy SA40

[Sunesis]

We wait for 18h30 before the tanking starts

[cuzin]

Awesome. Really well done. Any thoughts on SA40?

Sold FTSE 6760

[Sunesis]

Sold FTSE 6760

[Sunesis]

S, what's your trades today for the Dow?

Just sold Dow at 16541