35854 replies to this topic

[JBlack]

I am short term mate. Remember? Everything and everybody is flying today. I am just cashing in...

ching ching? Watch this turn around in the US!..Sowi lol

Looks like it. Will wait a tad before I dabble in the US market tonite...

[Mad Max]

Question is what does it hold in for us for the night. 

Actually I remember a few months ago the TOP 40 gapped up 1.25 % before open.  After the open it just went straight down, so to answer my own question - it may not be a good thing...for the US

[mx125]

Yes It gapped up 9 points 1775 to  1784  (0.80%) . Gap up are generally a good thing  , right ?

Question is what does it hold in for us for the night. 

[Mad Max]

Not sooo fast J..Did the US just gap up ?? Cant see on my phone

Yes It gapped up 9 points 1775 to  1784  (0.80%) . Gap up are generally a good thing  , right ?

Edited by Rockstar, 16 December 2013 - 05:14 PM.

[JBlack]

Riding the FTSE wave. Hope u guys have a couple if longs open! Before Turnaround Tuesday drops everything again....

Not sooo fast J..Did the US just gap up ?? Cant see on my phone

I am short term mate. Remember? Everything and everybody is flying today. I am just cashing in...

[Mhlato]

Mhlato

 

Thanks for the tip. Just please explain what exactly do you do opposite, if you want to short. 

 

Please don't see it as a "tip"....thats for Horse racing   Test drive it first before you put it to work and when you do, make sure to set your stops. 

 

iff the High - Low ot the previous day > 500 and the close > 75% of the daily range. 

 

@ Chubby, i found it more rewarding to use the current bars reading to the standard FastK 14 bar calculation method used in         Stochastics simply because it's not lagging, it's telling me what happens now while the day's trading is in progress.

[JBlack]

Europe is flyng!!!

Riding the FTSE wave. Hope u guys have a couple if longs open! Before Turnaround Tuesday drops everything again....

[mx125]

Here is another system that you can look at. This one i call PAL system as it is based on PRICE ACTION and not indicators, although i have put up that trusty old 20EMA for medium term direction on the daily chart.

 

The aim here is to take a long trade, so, first take yesterday's high and deduct 500 points off and put an alert on or mark it on your chart.

 

Secondly we are looking for a close in the lower part of the daily bar ( in less then 25% of the range of the bar) For those that do not know how to calculate it, do the following:  (Close - Low) / (High - Low) *100. The result will tell you at any given time during the day where the price is in relation to the range of the days action.

 

Now, come 17:15 and the low is more then 500 points down from the previous day's high and we are trading near the low for the day, you are good to go!

 

Look at the chart attached and you will see that of the last 20 trades there were 4 losers (when we had full gap downs) thus giving us a 80% success rate. Also note that if your account allowed it, 3 day's later you were back in the money or you could have just added to your position at the lower levels.

 

Where to take profit the next day is the tricky thing, that is up to you because at the start of the day you do not know what the day's high is going to be! I suggest you can now look at other indicators, candlesticks etc for conformation or if you want to take a longer term long..especially if we are trading above a rising 20EMA.

 

For shorts you just do the opposite of the above.  

 

My apologies to the PRO'S for boring you.

Mhlato

 

Thanks for the tip. Just please explain what exactly do you do opposite, if you want to short. 

[cuzin]

Europe is flyng!!!

[Sunesis]

Asia yeah, luckily Europe is slightly in the green. This might just be briefly...

We will be in a range till Wednesday.

 

5mins before FOMC time, put a long with a 300pip stop.

It will be a good swing trade if the FED don't taper.

 

Ride it until Jan 2.

 

If it does not work out you only loose 300 pip. If you have been a bull for the year, it would be nothing if you loose 300pip.

[Sunesis]

Noooo S, when are we going to see that Xmas rally you been telling us about?

The rally will come Dec 18th

[AJS]

The Selling continues today

 

Asia yeah, luckily Europe is slightly in the green. This might just be briefly...

[Bev]

The Selling continues today

Noooo S, when are we going to see that Xmas rally you been telling us about?

[Sunesis]

The Selling continues today

[snoop]

Interesting last 20 days. Very similar to the the June taper action Selloff definately real. Volumes look ugly. Open-High shows bulls are being overwhelmed(Rallies being sold)

Yes 23 June look a like spotted that as well

[Plasma]

All eyes, however, will be on the U.S. central bank's policy decision at 2 p.m. (19:00 GMT) on Wednesday, just a week before the Christmas holiday. It is Bernanke's last press conference as Fed chairman and he is expected to stress that interest rates will remain low for a long while irrespective of when the quantitative easing program, or QE, is shelved. About half of the 60 economists polled by Reuters last week expected the Fed to wait until March before it trims the asset purchases, which are meant to spur investment and hiring. Twelve saw the so-called QE tapering this week, up from three when the poll was done a month ago.

[Mhlato]

Here is another system that you can look at. This one i call PAL system as it is based on PRICE ACTION and not indicators, although i have put up that trusty old 20EMA for medium term direction on the daily chart.

 

The aim here is to take a long trade, so, first take yesterday's high and deduct 500 points off and put an alert on or mark it on your chart.

 

Secondly we are looking for a close in the lower part of the daily bar ( in less then 25% of the range of the bar) For those that do not know how to calculate it, do the following:  (Close - Low) / (High - Low) *100. The result will tell you at any given time during the day where the price is in relation to the range of the days action.

 

Now, come 17:15 and the low is more then 500 points down from the previous day's high and we are trading near the low for the day, you are good to go!

 

Look at the chart attached and you will see that of the last 20 trades there were 4 losers (when we had full gap downs) thus giving us a 80% success rate. Also note that if your account allowed it, 3 day's later you were back in the money or you could have just added to your position at the lower levels.

 

Where to take profit the next day is the tricky thing, that is up to you because at the start of the day you do not know what the day's high is going to be! I suggest you can now look at other indicators, candlesticks etc for conformation or if you want to take a longer term long..especially if we are trading above a rising 20EMA.

 

For shorts you just do the opposite of the above.  

 

My apologies to the PRO'S for boring you.

 

Attached Files

•  PAL System.png   49.77KB   19 downloads

[Plasma]

So this is how I see it...our market has gone from being way overbought in Nov to being oversold at current (although it is by no means cheap). So far in Dec our market has been dominated by offshore selling and option selling as negative gamma kicked in towards the back end of the week. This was exacerbated by the fact that there are currently no bids in this market as large instos are absent...the ones that coined it cashed in and are already at some exotic holiday destination whilst the ones that underperformed are nervously waiting on the Fed. Next week Thursday will be very interesting...our market could pop in the event of no/dovish taper. A sharp move higher at open will see negative gamma kick in and option traders will then take market higher. What ever happens on Thursday morning will set the scene for the rest of December...

Supported.....if no taper, Santa could be back.....

[Zero Hedge]

So this is how I see it...our market has gone from being way overbought in Nov to being oversold at current (although it is by no means cheap). So far in Dec our market has been dominated by offshore selling and option selling as negative gamma kicked in towards the back end of the week. This was exacerbated by the fact that there are currently no bids in this market as large instos are absent...the ones that coined it cashed in and are already at some exotic holiday destination whilst the ones that underperformed are nervously waiting on the Fed. Next week Thursday will be very interesting...our market could pop in the event of no/dovish taper. A sharp move higher at open will see negative gamma kick in and option traders will then take market higher. What ever happens on Thursday morning will set the scene for the rest of December...

[Zero Hedge]

In the unlikely event that they do announce taper in Dec it will be a dovish taper for reasons mentioned in my first post. So the million dollar question is how much has been discounted by markets and will it be a classic case of sell the rumour...?