35854 replies to this topic

[Plasma]

Sorry L...only saw your edit now.


Falling of your horse, why, it could only mean that you would be sooooo surprised about me having some risk management approach in place........

[Mhlato]

You really collect lekker things on your journey, don't you!

 

 

YES....if it can help me in my trading  and PP are very usefull in current market condidtions.

[Lekkerry]

You really collect lekker things on your journey, don't you!

 

 

Here is a neat little PP calculator for those who want to to do it manually.

[Mhlato]

Here is a neat little PP calculator for those who want to to do it manually.

Attached Files

•  PivotCalculator05-06-05.zip   16.61KB   25 downloads

[bear catcher]

 Nice 80 point divi coming on friday.

[Plasma]

Now I am interested in that percentage figure, what does THAT mean and how you get to it? Why not 55 or 72%

Lekkerry, do not fall of your horse ......


confident that you have at least a 60% chance to make .

What he is saying, from his experience, is that even though you might be very confident about the trade, anything can happen, and since patterns fail, and reversals fail, you cannot have p = 1. His experience shows that a p = 0.6 is a reasonable probability of success given all market parameters, if you, based on your assessment, are quite positive about the trade's potential success.

Overtime, should you thus loose 40% of the time, though you were confident about each trade, but your expected return per trade >= risk, then your account will be positive.

Therefor, consistent application of the positive trader's equation is essential ito your risk management approach.

One must therefor carefully think about each trade, not like me yesterday.....

[Lekkerry]

Now I am interested in that percentage figure, what does THAT mean and how you (edit: you, as in the proverbial you) get to it? Why not 55 or 72% 

 

Lekkerry, do not fall of your horse ......

confident that you have at least a 60% chance to make .

Edited by Lekkerry, 11 September 2013 - 01:22 PM.

[Pierra]

WTF, TA vs FM   atm

[Plasma]

Lekkerry, do not fall of your horse ......

Some posts of yesterday refer...

The new plasma (although the old one surfaced yesterday again), is trying to consistently apply Al Brooks' positive trader's equation perspective, ie, taking a trade only when you are confident that you have at least a 60% chance to make at least that what is equal to your risk (what you are prepared to loose). And to have a preference for trades where the expected return is twice the risk. Your confidence will be a function of proper TA (for you AJS ). If you can take 10 contracts....don't...take one and over time, once showing that you have the TA skills, and DISCIPLINE, to make a profit consistently, then increase position size.

[AJS]

Do you calculate data points yourself, or get it already worked out? Just asking, perhaps we can paste data points for J200 every morning...

 

That is a very good idea!

[Plasma]

Flirting with the PP again (38 874).

Do you calculate data points yourself, or get it already worked out? Just asking, perhaps we can paste data points for J200 every morning...

[JJBen]

Flirting with the PP again (38 874).

[Lekkerry]

Waiting for the 12:00 - 12:30 turn-around to commence!

[betweenlines]

waiting to close long and short at 39150, hopefully when US markets opens

 

wants her to kiss 38800 and long again

[Beorn]

Added to short @ 39100

 

Closed some @ 38890

[JJBen]

Sept13: We are in blue sky country so anything can happen.

 

Two things to consider: 1) Gap at open to be closed (39 084). Mind you, we have ~6 gaps below to close. 2) Market bounced off PP (38 874). I didn't long the PP bounce but will wait and see how price action develops around gap (if we get there).

 

IG nett short position decreased from 75% to 69% this morning. They are nervous, and used the 08h35 bar to close some shorts. 

[Pierra]

Haha, okay, sorry! Thought it is some kind of new system of website or something. Feel stupid now, sorry! 

TA atm

[AJS]

Technical Analysis, i.e. charting.

 

Haha, okay, sorry! Thought it is some kind of new system of website or something. Feel stupid now, sorry! 

[Trainee Trader]

Excuse my ignorance, but what is this TA?

 

Technical Analysis, i.e. charting.

[delta66]

Excuse my ignorance, but what is this TA?

TA- technical analysis