ALSI behaving very predictable, atm.
Another +- 100 points then the dailies' MA is being touched (round about 36715 J200). The fire-test comes between now and then, is there enough conviction for the bulls to break the current bearish trend. If it doesn't reach the MA by US open, the mood remains bearish <- my opinion.
oundtree, ... roundtree / rowntree, isn't it some sort of sweets or tea brand... anyway.
My perspective more or less supports your opinion. If the bias remains bearish going forward, ALSI has another +-200 points to test 36600 (J200), where-after if bearishness prevails, the candles would have reached (tested) the MA line for the BBand, back up from touching the lower band today (the 1d with my chosen indicators doesn't fail often). The touching of the lower BBand was rather quick today and as such, MACD hasn't really caught onto the price movement (which in my opinion, is good for a bearish sentiment). I concur with your sentiment that ALSI might (might) rally further up to 10:00 or 10:30 Monday.
All the above purely hypothetically speaking, as Mr market is irrational (has QE, will rebound) and chart techs tend to lean towards the rational.
The above is the peanut gallery's opinions and perspective based on today's events.
Graph refers: basic graph of 1d, but retest of blue arrow to red line, then if the bears can hold on, down again to newer lows. Red circles = bearish traits.
Edited by Lekkerry, 10 June 2013 - 09:39 AM.