35854 replies to this topic

[REDorBLACK]

that was a short squeeze of note

[REDorBLACK]

oops

Edited by REDorBLACK, 22 April 2015 - 04:52 PM.

[Beorn]

First short in @ 48360

Added like a mother above 48500

[Beorn]

First short in @ 48360

[AJS]

The year of the bear...

 

A

 

Haha   I'd like a piece of prime cut fillet please! 

[Argento]

The year of the bear...

 

A

Attached Files

•  2015.jpg   11.89KB   17 downloads

[Motion Picture]

I fib you not

 

ha ha ha ha 

[AJS]

I fib you not

 

   

[Vertebrae]

Unless Major 3 extends via intermediate 5 it takes the natures end cul-de-sac 48750 - 49000, I fib you not

[gannet]

aggg...and IG is down! 

 

Oh noooo!!!

 

Did you just miss the flash crash??????

[Motion Picture]

Yup, looks like it is. Can't get through to their helpdesk either.

 

I'm sure they're busy checking out the stop losses there, behind the curtains 

[Yaz]

aggg...and IG is down! 

 

Yup, looks like it is. Can't get through to their helpdesk either.

Edited by Yaz, 22 April 2015 - 10:56 AM.

[Motion Picture]

aggg...and IG is down! 

[Vertebrae]

Lekke top building...the real answer always lies in the macd's!

 

A

 

For SPX the notion of an ending diagonal looks as likely as any other count, and I have developed a strange degree of interest, which is not good.

[gannet]

And strange is not good...

 

US SPX 500(Daily)sng.png

 

Thanks for your wavez V

 

EW is not my forte but I appreciate its value when done correctly

[Motion Picture]

UBS also seeing a wave 4 in motion....

 

A

 

 

Good stuff you posted there A. Thanks man!

[Vertebrae]

And strange is not good...

 

[Vertebrae]

A... that UBS interesting thanks. Different counts arising for indexes that were with much similar counts not so long ago.

 

Caldaro admits team not in tune. My favorite is a penny whistle...

 

[Argento]

UBS also seeing a wave 4 in motion....

 

A

 

US Trading 

 

 

: Following our cyclical model, we saw the SPX moving into a minor trading top last week and taking another

breather before starting its next breakout attempt into early summer. With the Friday reversal and via generating a fresh

momentum short signal we have the confirmation that our suggested trading top is in place. Our cyclical roadmap is

unchanged. On a short-term basis we see the SPX vulnerable for a pullback into late April/early May but we continue to

expect at least one more bounce attempt into later May/early June where the SPX can still hit a marginal new high. So despite

an increasing number of technical warning signals we think it is too early to call our suggested summer top.

•

 

With last week's reversal, the SPX has failed to break its obvious resistance zone of 2114 to 2119. On a short-term basis we

see the risk of a pullback to worst case 2039 (March low) to 2019 (200-day moving average). For aggressive accounts we see

weakness into late April/early May as an opportunity to buy/add. A break of 2119 would be outright bullish. Our targets on the

upside are unchanged at 2160/2170 to best case 2200. Our favored sectors remain energy, materials and retail (which is

pulling back), whereas in transport, semiconductors, housing and banks we have patterns/divergences forming, which we see

as a leading indicator for our suggested summer top/correction.

•

 

US Strategy: In our cyclical model, the mid-February breakout above the pivotal December 29th high of 2093 triggered a new

medium-term long signal in the SPX into the May/June time window, which suggests an extension of the underlying 2011 bull

cycle into early summer. As we said over the last few weeks, we are sticking to the high conviction call of our 2015 strategy

that points towards a larger, 15% to 20% correction, which from an Elliott Wave perspective should correct the 2011 bull

cycle before resuming the underlying long-term bull market into H1 2016. So the break of 2093 does not negate our correction

call, it just implies a shift of this scenario into deeper summer, which also suggests that apart from any near-term tactical

pullbacks, and as long as the SPX trades above 1980, the underlying bull trend in the US remains intact.

•

 

European Trading: After the recent breakout Europe was overbought and on the back of the deteriorating momentum

(divergences forming in our technical indicators), a too bullish market sentiment and following our short-term cyclical model,

we saw Europe vulnerable for a short-term pullback. Generally, from an Elliott Wave perspective, and within the impulsive

bull move from the October 2014 bottom, we see the current setback as a wave 4. In this context we continue to remain

underlying bullish into early summer where, however, we expect the Euro Stoxx to move into a more important (wave 5) cycle

top. On a short-term basis the Euro Stoxx is vulnerable for more pulling back/consolidation towards 3616 to 3550 into late

April/early May before starting another move higher towards best case 3970 into early June. On the sector front we expect

rising selectivity, and apart from the current pullback we remain bullish energy, basic resource, and banks.

•

 

Inter Market Analysis: On track with our cyclical model, the US dollar has started its suggested second pullback leg as part

of our favored classic a-b-c correction pattern. Short-term, the DXY is bouncing but as long as the US Dollar DXY trades

below its pivotal March/April top at around 100 the US dollar remains short biased and we expect to see more US Dollar

consolidation into early/best case deeper May before starting a next bigger rally towards new highs into early summer.

•

 

From a macro perspective, more near-term US dollar weakness is tactically bullish commodities and Emerging Markets,

which have been extending their recent bull run. After a short-term pull back we continue to expect more gains into late

May/early June so for aggressive traders we see weakness still as an opportunity to add selectively.

•

 

Last week we saw light crude breaking its $54 resistance and WTI is heading towards its next resistance at $58 to $60.

However, with trading in a corrective wave C we see further upside increasingly limited and in this context we would argue

against chasing oil in the latter stages of its corrective rebound pattern, since we still expect to see minimum one significant

litmus test on the downside into summer as part of a bigger bottom building process.

[Argento]

Ok, here is my count, IMO sideways to up till around Wednesday and then down for the final C wave of Major 4 into next week, then only will the bulls be back!Fits in with seasonals too.....

 

5H macd tells us the bears not done yet so they could make an assault at anytime!

 

A

Lekke top building...the real answer always lies in the macd's!

 

A

Edited by Argento, 21 April 2015 - 03:56 PM.