35854 replies to this topic

[gannet]

the silence is deafening 

 

I'm sorry ... we were at car dealerships spending some of our profits earned last week

[Beorn]

the silence is deafening 

 

Truly.

 

I'm adding longs on the dips! Hahaha (I feel like a parrot repeating the same thing over and over)

What is your call?

Edited by Beorn, 02 February 2015 - 12:45 PM.

[grantmu]

the silence is deafening 

[Beorn]

Eskom is going to send the rand into orbit today IMO

That, and more QE from PBOC going to be priced in.
Another stellar green day imo

Bhp and 10c behaving well in Oz and China.
Watch Out shorts

[Beorn]

Eskom is going to send the rand into orbit today IMO

That, and more QE from PBOC going to be priced in.
Another stellar green day imo

[grantmu]

Eskom is going to send the rand into orbit today IMO

[grantmu]

@ Grant, i agree with you, it's all math's. (those who disagree...ask Charlie Ebbs) 

 

"I disagree, this is all maths, QE is just another information point that needs to be taken into account. the dips will still happen but they may be less severe. when Qe first started we were all in the dark, this time we have much more information and should make for better trading. it is all still maths and numbers"

 

IMHO, and i have said it before, one should not be a Bull or a Bear, let the market's direction decides for you. What is important is to know what drives our market and to spot the change in direction and then change your strategy accordingly.

 

Now i know that the majority members on this thread is hell-bend on the SPX, QE etc. for direction, but how many times have we seen this...."Why are the rest of the world green and we are red" or visa versa? The answer to that imo is simple, the rest of the world do not have only 7 shares and a worthless currency that dominates their indexes like we have.

 

Check the charts below and you will see that when the J213 / J210 moves in the same direction, the J200 will follow accordingly, regardless of what the SPX does or any QE announcements.

Please note that i am not saying one should ignore the latter, i just that imo they are not the main drivers of the TOP 40 medium to longer term.

Agree in part but you need to add dow. s&p and FTSE if you are trading on cash, then you also need to acknowledge that like it or not we are part of the FTSE and almost seen as the mining arm of the FTSE, because of that we don't sleep at close of trading in the JSE. the directions are set by large part to what we do as a country, if the US is nervous then our gold mines and gold price is a safe haven, the EU dictates our platinum production and profitability. it all gets a little difficult with the larger in flows and outflows of capital, like what happened last week. we seem to disconnect from everyone. But as happened in the past this is not reality and it does correct with a drop or a slow climb.

 

I do however agree with following the direction, and that is possibly how I do most of the trades. This again in my view depends on the point of view, playing the daily gives a more long term look, playing the 5 minute gives you a closer more volatile look. I try and play the longer view on the dailies and use the much shorter fluctuations during the day on the 5 minute chart. to me what I am trying to do is take more advantage of the smaller movements, as an example I think Friday offered about 1500 gettable points if you could follow close enough and spot the turn accurately. the problem is most of the tools we use are not aimed at derivative and definitely not for the ultra short term day trader. I have spent a year writing my own tools with some success and some big failures.

 

I am trying to be able to follow turns much more accurately, so that the slow days are just as profitable as the big fast moving days. to me that is the only way to make this ALSI thing work.

 

Monday going to be interesting.

 

G 

[Mhlato]

@ Grant, i agree with you, it's all math's. (those who disagree...ask Charlie Ebbs) 

 

"I disagree, this is all maths, QE is just another information point that needs to be taken into account. the dips will still happen but they may be less severe. when Qe first started we were all in the dark, this time we have much more information and should make for better trading. it is all still maths and numbers"

 

IMHO, and i have said it before, one should not be a Bull or a Bear, let the market's direction decides for you. What is important is to know what drives our market and to spot the change in direction and then change your strategy accordingly.

 

Now i know that the majority members on this thread is hell-bend on the SPX, QE etc. for direction, but how many times have we seen this...."Why are the rest of the world green and we are red" or visa versa? The answer to that imo is simple, the rest of the world do not have only 7 shares and a worthless currency that dominates their indexes like we have.

 

Check the charts below and you will see that when the J213 / J210 moves in the same direction, the J200 will follow accordingly, regardless of what the SPX does or any QE announcements.

Please note that i am not saying one should ignore the latter, i just that imo they are not the main drivers of the TOP 40 medium to longer term.

 

 

 

 

 

Attached Files

•  31 Jan 15 SPX (Com Chart).png   49.05KB   14 downloads
•  31 Jan 15 FTSE (Com Chart).png   39.25KB   14 downloads
•  31 Jan 15 World (Com Chart).png   46.2KB   12 downloads
•  YTD USA 310115.png   60.52KB   13 downloads
•  YTD Europe 310115.png   61.85KB   12 downloads
•  YTD ZA Ind 310115.png   52.16KB   12 downloads

[grantmu]

Alsi caught up with S&P.
In past QE, we were trading a bit above S&P as seen in the chart, but that was when SA yields were higher than in US.

With US int rates in a rising cycle and yield increasing, we might not get there.
But with increased Russian sanctions, we will get a lot more investment then usual.

I'm still holding for that 46600ish level, but I might start shrinking my long position this week.ImageUploadedBySharenet Sharechat1422680001.467004.jpg

You have had a good run, hope it continues for you. I see Monday as a slight dip, Then the question becomes will this be a reversal or will it bounce back up, I sold all my long stuff on 29th except for 2 smaller ones still running, and both will stay in the green till we hit 44500. On Friday the VIX shot up at the end of trading and I think some concerns are starting to creep in, will play Monday by scalping for the day and then look at more longs if it turns back up.

 

But we also may be due for a run back into the top, been out of the upper reaches for 5 months now so this may just be the start of a hard bull run, I hope that is the case as my bear skills are questionable to say the least. (But I am getting better). I think this would all be more predictable if the US and EU reconnected again, but that may take a couple of days. 

 

interesting times. 

 

G

[Beorn]

Alsi caught up with S&P.
In past QE, we were trading a bit above S&P as seen in the chart, but that was when SA yields were higher than in US.

With US int rates in a rising cycle and yield increasing, we might not get there.
But with increased Russian sanctions, we will get a lot more investment then usual.

I'm still holding for that 46600ish level, but I might start shrinking my long position this week.  ImageUploadedBySharenet Sharechat1422680001.467004.jpg   93.56KB   62 downloads

[grantmu]

enough said qe the answer we will keep moaning until 50000 but qe still in place fucks up all ta charts and logic . See us rock and roll from march when qe starts this just the warm up bear hibernate and real bulls run an **** up everything in front of them

I disagree, this is all maths, QE is just another information point that needs to be taken into account. the dips will still happen but they may be less severe. when Qe first started we were all in the dark, this time we have much more information and should make for better trading. it is all still maths and numbers.

 

today's trading offered more than 1000 points for profit, not one of us in this group got even close to that, QE changes long term outcomes it has nothing to do with the day trading strategy, buy and hold offers one option that most of the traders in this room do, (me included). trading the rest of the points in a day will determine the kings of profit or the year.

 

I still have my doubts about the Qe in Europe, I think we all expect it to be the same as before but I have a sneaky suspicion it is not going to be quite the same in the long run, this little run may have been over exited traders, we will see in 3 months if reality sets in, Low oil price, War in the Ukraine, the Greeks, the recession in EU and not forgetting the fact that the US seems to have completely disconnected from Europe, all things that will affect QE.

 

personally I think the BULL is back, But not in the same way as it was before, much more volatility I think.

 

G  

[bear catcher]

what i cant understand is that we tick up when other markets tick up....but as they retract we stay up...

enough said qe the answer we will keep moaning until 50000 but qe still in place fucks up all ta charts and logic . See us rock and roll from march when qe starts this just the warm up bear hibernate and real bulls run an **** up everything in front of them

[bear catcher]

what i cant understand is that we tick up when other markets tick up....but as they retract we stay up...

enough said bous qe the answet we will go on moaning till we reach 50000 this year,qe fucks up all techs and logic

[grantmu]

If any one is interested. 

 

This is a representation of intensity during the QE periods from 2012 to now. you will see that we are reaching a point of a very high push up, in most of the previous cases the end result was a fall right after the high point, there are also only 3 other points in this graph that went to a higher point in the time frame.

 

My View is this run is coming to an end. The chart also shows that there will always be more. 

It also shows that there are on average between 15 and 25 runs either up or down for any given year

Attached Files

•  South Africa 40 Cash.png   133.35KB   18 downloads

[gannet]

ja...i wonder if he will need a stop at this rate...

 

Even Viking warriors need stops 

[Ninja]

Eish... I don't know!!! Too scared to buy here...
Really defying logic and global markets and day after day nogal.
Nice spike in hourly volume on last day of month

[Argento]

This thing just won't budge, she ignores any negative divergence so out again...missing all of this lekke upside now, nice!

 

A

[strydomk]

Tired of this rubbish.

[REDorBLACK]

Hope B uses stops or you might be able to buy his clubs on the cheap next week 

ja...i wonder if he will need a stop at this rate...

[gannet]

 

A

 

Hope B uses stops or you might be able to buy his clubs on the cheap next week