35854 replies to this topic

[gannet]

Interesting you mention the dollar. Based on what I can tell 87 would be the floor in the dollar index after which it should move into a wave 5 and move higher above 104. Would actually act as a negative catalyst I guess when considering the economic component of oil.

There is another consideration with Oil. Long exposure by retail in futures is at a record high and the discrepancy between them and commercial interest is at a record high (reflecting insiders negative stance). This discrepancy has shown itself at each turn since it ended its grand supercycle in 2008.

 

my 2c worth

if 57 holds I think it could break your channel and longer term 100 might be reached with speed bumps along the way

[Snippit]

Have a look at some of Caldaros posts in 2009. He was calling for the end of days just as the market bottomed. In beginning of 2016 he once again was calling for the end of days just before it reversed into the final wave 5.

Be careful with that guy. He seems to try sensationalise moves in an effort to hopefully make a grand call. He switched to a grand call of the beginning of a new super cycle and has ridden that wave up during the complacent wave 5 on multiple degrees. That complacency has allowed the call to go uncontested but I can assure you when things turn down he'll simply switch back to doomsday.

 

New Era acceptance criteria not acceptable to old school doctrine. Its either put up your contesting facts or stop contesting.

A lesson the MSM could surely benefit themselves with/from. And their survival will soon depend on this.

You see, it ain't so easy to dupe all so as to dump the opposition no more.

[Mostlya]

I see $US index wave 1 @ 89.71 below which the current retrace will be confirmed as primary, which is just nomenclature at this stage. The recent sub 20 on the 4-hr RSI (14) looks hard to beat and the end of the month is now in the headlights. Time to stock up on stay awake pills.
The period of end 2016 begin 2017 saw the bottom of the primary bear across the resources. There has been much and endless noise about the entire gamut being subjected to a false bottom and the recovery being just an abc bounce. I find the evidence lacking both technical and fundamental and Caldero produced a public report on how he sees the long term importance and bullish implications of the 2016 bear ending. Not easy to poopoo Caldero in my book. Not impossible short term maybe once in 3 years, but he has been a lone on-the-ball poster for years during the post 2008 period.

Meanwhile the T40 futures is making a 1-2 effort to break away from the profit-takers.

Have a look at some of Caldaros posts in 2009. He was calling for the end of days just as the market bottomed. In beginning of 2016 he once again was calling for the end of days just before it reversed into the final wave 5.

Be careful with that guy. He seems to try sensationalise moves in an effort to hopefully make a grand call. He switched to a grand call of the beginning of a new super cycle and has ridden that wave up during the complacent wave 5 on multiple degrees. That complacency has allowed the call to go uncontested but I can assure you when things turn down he'll simply switch back to doomsday.

[Snippit]

Interesting you mention the dollar. Based on what I can tell 87 would be the floor in the dollar index after which it should move into a wave 5 and move higher above 104. Would actually act as a negative catalyst I guess when considering the economic component of oil.

There is another consideration with Oil. Long exposure by retail in futures is at a record high and the discrepancy between them and commercial interest is at a record high (reflecting insiders negative stance). This discrepancy has shown itself at each turn since it ended its grand supercycle in 2008.

 

I see $US index wave 1 @ 89.71 below which the current retrace will be confirmed as primary, which is just nomenclature at this stage. The recent sub 20 on the 4-hr RSI (14) looks hard to beat and the end of the month is now in the headlights. Time to stock up on stay awake pills.

The period of end 2016 begin 2017 saw the bottom of the primary bear across the resources. There has been much and endless noise about the entire gamut being subjected to a false bottom and the recovery being just an abc bounce. I find the evidence lacking both technical and fundamental and Caldero produced a public report on how  he sees the long term importance and bullish implications of the 2016 bear ending. Not easy to poopoo Caldero in my book. Not impossible short term maybe once in 3 years, but he has been a lone on-the-ball poster for years during the post 2008 period.

 

Meanwhile the T40 futures is making a 1-2 effort to break away from the profit-takers.

[Mostlya]

Neat charting there!
I suppose it is not impossible that crude will extend the ABC into ABCDE, but that would be highly improbable given the degree of retrace (maybe a double bottom?) and the weakness being experienced by the $US but mostly I find the power of the divergences in place quite decisive. So here I do have some difficulty, viz:

Interesting you mention the dollar. Based on what I can tell 87 would be the floor in the dollar index after which it should move into a wave 5 and move higher above 104. Would actually act as a negative catalyst I guess when considering the economic component of oil.

There is another consideration with Oil. Long exposure by retail in futures is at a record high and the discrepancy between them and commercial interest is at a record high (reflecting insiders negative stance). This discrepancy has shown itself at each turn since it ended its grand supercycle in 2008.

[Snippit]

My take on oil. Plenty of other confirmation work not shown on the graph.

https://invst.ly/6dk7b.

 

Neat charting there!

I suppose it is not impossible that crude will extend the ABC into ABCDE, but that would be highly improbable given the degree of retrace (maybe a double bottom?) and the weakness being experienced by the $US but mostly I find the power of the divergences in place quite decisive. So here I do have some difficulty, viz:

 

[Mostlya]

Your take has merit and is worthy. Maybe I am too complacent, I tend to go along with Caldaro. How about a compromise view for now...

That scenario is very much in play. Neither scenario is confirmed right now so we definitely have to wait and see.

[Snippit]

Looking for the big top...

 

https://jsecharts.bl...40-topping.html

 

 

[gannet]

Your take has merit and is worthy. Maybe I am too complacent, I tend to go along with Caldaro. How about a compromise view for now...

 

 

Ahhh now that I like

[Snippit]

I guess we shall see. Im of the firm believe that were at the tippy top of Grand Super Cycle 3. I also believe the Jse has completed all these waves and has in fact already in a corrective phase. The very same corrective phase that will force the markets down 70-80% over the next 4 years.

Its with this I believe 3 of (1) of [A] began yesterday beginning wave 4 of the grand supercycle. In actual fact it could be cycle 1 down so perhaps Primary A is incorrect and should actually be Primary 1 down. Semantics really when we start dealing with decade and century long wave patterns.

We're dealing with worldwide throw overs and hence the complacent buying spree. The Jse finds itself in an intermediate one and a minute one currently. Hong Kong is at a Primary level as is the Us. Throw overs have virtually no predictable top except when the end they cause a rapid drawdown.

Oil is also expected to find a sub $10 level as it finished Primary 5 of cycle wave C. Trade of the century in my opinion because it should happen very quickly from current levels.

The current setup is exactly what one would expect at the end of a 250 year stock cycle.

I know everybody had heard this all before and they're just writing it off but just ask yourself whether or not you're being complacent.

 

Your take has merit and is worthy. Maybe I am too complacent, I tend to go along with Caldaro. How about a compromise view for now...

 

[Mostlya]

My take on oil. Plenty of other confirmation work not shown on the graph.

https://invst.ly/6dk7b.

[Mostlya]

https://jsecharts.bl...futures_17.html

I guess we shall see. Im of the firm believe that were at the tippy top of Grand Super Cycle 3. I also believe the Jse has completed all these waves and has in fact already in a corrective phase. The very same corrective phase that will force the markets down 70-80% over the next 4 years.

Its with this I believe 3 of (1) of [A] began yesterday beginning wave 4 of the grand supercycle. In actual fact it could be cycle 1 down so perhaps Primary A is incorrect and should actually be Primary 1 down. Semantics really when we start dealing with decade and century long wave patterns.

We're dealing with worldwide throw overs and hence the complacent buying spree. The Jse finds itself in an intermediate one and a minute one currently. Hong Kong is at a Primary level as is the Us. Throw overs have virtually no predictable top except when the end they cause a rapid drawdown.

Oil is also expected to find a sub $10 level as it finished Primary 5 of cycle wave C. Trade of the century in my opinion because it should happen very quickly from current levels.

The current setup is exactly what one would expect at the end of a 250 year stock cycle.

I know everybody had heard this all before and they're just writing it off but just ask yourself whether or not you're being complacent.

[Snippit]

Minor 2 finishing up with a throw over. Never got get more bearish than this.

 

https://jsecharts.bl...futures_17.html

[Mostlya]

Minor 2 finishing up with a throw over. Never got get more bearish than this.

Little to no doubt now that this index will be 70-80% down by 2021. Those driving this index up today will have nothing in years to come. There's always a feeling that people are hard done by during major collapses but when you get stuck into it they're herding blindly and deserve what comes to them.

The exception being those who are forced to contribute to pension funds of course.

Gonna be a great year to be short across all asset classes.

Edited by Mostlya, 17 January 2018 - 01:10 PM.

[Mostlya]

Minor 2 finishing up with a throw over. Never got get more bearish than this.

[Snippit]

Top40 futures now ahead with the sub-minuette waves doing the 1-2 in minuette 3.

Shall we dance?

[Snippit]

Due to a distinct risk of unleashing algoreaphobia this chart was annotated with disappearing ink...

 

https://jsecharts.blogspot.co.za/

 

[Snippit]

Listen! The chart is trying to speak... it says unless the next Prez is Jesus then the party is over...

 

https://jsecharts.blogspot.co.za/

 

[Snippit]

And now the xy of the 3rd minute of the 5th minor of the 3rd intermediate is behind us, so tally ho!

 

That baby was 2 days premature for this chart which is now in the delivery process