35854 replies to this topic

[delta66]

..ahh, the old days

[Twenty1]

I dont know if the bubble has burst or if its btfd time just before the Euro data, which I expect to be strong and prop this false excuse of a market right back up.

[Snippit]

The waves are silent as they declare what happens next. Even when it has all happened endless times before, the waves remain silent. The rules are simple, there is only one...

1. nothing is new

 

not even this demoncrassie thingie...

 

[slow]

No news is good news, Good news is better and bad news is awesome news???? P&P is letting 3500 people go, Anglo's wants to let 8500 people go. Yet the Alsi is on a moon trajectory. DSTV was slapped with a R180m fine for price fixing and North Korea wants to blow the US to hell. Shell closes its biggest refinery in Europe due to a fire! This as we are watching the 20:00 movie on 101 Deep Water Horizon.

 

There is some logic in what is going on, just look Moody's said they are worried and the Rand follows. Looking at seasonality we should be going "down" but July this year has had some different ideas.When she drops and drop she shell, it is going to be quick and swift with bull's running?

 

 

[Twenty1]

LOL... yes its crazy... me also short and wondering if I misread the top...

I got my shorts in as well. Betting on that Caixin PMI index to come up short of 50. These commodities need some respite and what better way than a nice cold shower. 

[pointbreak]

North Korea sends another missile into the air................market........lets buy more.........no risk here......ahem!

LOL... yes its crazy... me also short and wondering if I misread the top...

[Twenty1]

North Korea sends another missile into the air................market........lets buy more.........no risk here......ahem!

[Snippit]

Do I see a NPN slide coming................

 

NPN can go back to 2000 but ALSI wants to break upwards more, so for that to happen the resources need to go into orbit.

[Snippit]

Anyone else think the top might be in?

 

I go for circa 50% of the pull back so far.

[Phi]

Anyone else think the top might be in?

[grantmu]

Thx. Great post. Would like to add: I think computers are trading mostly, but the ALGO's will very quick (as humans will do) pick up if there is real economic growth and a real strong job market. locally and internationally.

i am of the opinion that we have not as yet been in a bull market for the last three years locally. The top 40 is still sitting where it was in 2014, and actually "theoretically" collapsed if you take into account the fall of the ZAR.

I think we all would have expected the Alsi to have sit at 65000 already, if all was well. 

I recon if the ANC goes out in the 2019 election and our politics happen to become more representative, balanced and market orientated (that means free markets); that confidence will return and we will see a real bull market for a change. You know the ones our grandparents knew...lol (pending that things don't go completely haywire internationally)

 I tend to look at the older dogs that have been around for a while and not the young hot shots for a direction, when the buffets of the world start to signal that the bull is coming to an end i tend to take notice, some of the oldest traders and managers are all saying there re serious problems and no fixes on the horizon. 

 

If you want my opinion, the event that will make the cascade start is going to be one of the banks getting into trouble, and it could be any one of the bigger ones or even a mid size bank. It also does not have to be in the US it could be anywhere, A bank that finally has to own up to the amount of off book risk and debt will in my view create the necessary black swan event. As with most black swans the start of the problem will probably go pretty much un noticed, then cascade onto a huge mess. I dont see any of this on the horizon at the moment. The doom and gloom has predicted Deutche bank as the first to go bang for a while no but still nothing happened.

 

To me the only event can be an extension of 2007, it has to be about debt and money in order to turn this thing around. The Donald does not have the ability or support to make this mess go away, and the EU have so many problems that they cant fix it, China is going down the same path as the rest of the world so they cant pull it all together.

 

Again i dont think we will have much warning and it will all probably go nuclear over a weekend, Friday fine, Monday down 1000. At the moment there are much better ways to make money than trading, it is just to unpredictable and long term is now measured in hours and not months for a trade. beginning of 2014 I was in a single ALSI trade for 2 months. A 3000 point trade was common place, now it is a miracle.

 

Invested on other stuff at the moment but it is going to be fun to watch this mess unravel, but will that be tomorrow or in a year from now.

 

G 

[pointbreak]

have not posted for a while.

 

I have been looking at some of the posts and the question of how long can this all go on. I think that from a USA point of view this could go on for quite some time and the reason is most (I estimate 70 percent) of the trading in the US markets is ALGO trading with no human involvement at all. The PE or share profit have absolutely nothing to do with it anymore. It also has very little to do with sentiment or confidence. The ALGOs look for opportunity and based the decision on a mathematical possibility, they all run the same type of ALGOs so it all looks like a big push in one direction or another, but the share price is no longer based solely on the company viability or stability.

The ALSI on the other hand still has quite a few active traders that still press the keys to make a buy or sell. The reactions of the ALSI are in some cases over blown because of some form of nervousness. In my view that is the reason for the stagnation of the ALSI since 2014.

Befor 2010 there was still a connection between companies and stock prices, the issue of Greece and the EU problems forced the bigger banks to move to ALGO trading for a couple of reasons, the first is less staff and the second is that this kind of trading is off book and does not show on the balance sheet in real terms. They can now pass the tests for surviveability because the reality of there situations is no longer reported in any way. Debt and risk is not shown on the balance sheet anymore. 

So what will make this Bull end, The only way to stop the bull is to have an even to that will physically cause a wave to move through the market and get the market to move in ways that fall outside the scope of the ALGO, if that happens most of the ALGOs will do the reverse and start to play the market in the opposite direction. This would have to be something big and when the ALGOs change direction and move to the down side no one knows what that will do, the auto sell orders of the larger hedge funds and pension funds will make the drop dramatic and FAST. No one has ever played an ALGO in a bear market and I think some of the crashes are going to be eye opening.

From an ALSI point of view our market is going to react to rand dollar movements in over reactions as usual, it is also going to respond to political statements but the current bunch of politicians that make statements for the good of a voting campaign and no thought to the damage that it will do. Depending on the campaign and what happens to the current bunch of Cleptos we will resume upwards if the outcomes are favorable but if the current bunch put up a fight and make statements that make it worse we could see more of the over stated drops back to the bottom support line of 44 ish.

This bull will continue and only a black swan will change that. Any drops will be to the tune of 10 to 20 percent and then back up to current levels. 

 

The US market is full of cool aid and the ALLGOs are just adding to the euphoria. Will this last long term, an interesting indicator to look at is a mixture of the VIX and the employment numbers, history shows that every time the vix and the employment numbers are this low the wheels fall of spectacularly. According to the vIX this is going to be all happiness and roses for the rest of time. lowest since 1990.  Every time the US economy is supposedly at full employment the market does an about face and heads for the exit door. 100 years of thinking the world is round because everyone is supposedly employed has caught the financial establishment off guard every single time. You simply cant trust numbers that dont take into account the people that have stopped looking for work because there just are no jobs. Just because the people are employed waiting tables does not make the economy right especially if the person waiting tables is an investment banker or a doctor.

 

when this ends it is going to be something to watch, many are saying 2017 is the year it will end this run, if there is no black swan nothing will change, there will be ups and downs but nothing catastrophic in my view. 

 

G

Thx. Great post. Would like to add: I think computers are trading mostly, but the ALGO's will very quick (as humans will do) pick up if there is real economic growth and a real strong job market. locally and internationally.

i am of the opinion that we have not as yet been in a bull market for the last three years locally. The top 40 is still sitting where it was in 2014, and actually "theoretically" collapsed if you take into account the fall of the ZAR.

I think we all would have expected the Alsi to have sit at 65000 already, if all was well. 

I recon if the ANC goes out in the 2019 election and our politics happen to become more representative, balanced and market orientated (that means free markets); that confidence will return and we will see a real bull market for a change. You know the ones our grandparents knew...lol (pending that things don't go completely haywire internationally)

[grantmu]

have not posted for a while.

 

I have been looking at some of the posts and the question of how long can this all go on. I think that from a USA point of view this could go on for quite some time and the reason is most (I estimate 70 percent) of the trading in the US markets is ALGO trading with no human involvement at all. The PE or share profit have absolutely nothing to do with it anymore. It also has very little to do with sentiment or confidence. The ALGOs look for opportunity and based the decision on a mathematical possibility, they all run the same type of ALGOs so it all looks like a big push in one direction or another, but the share price is no longer based solely on the company viability or stability.

The ALSI on the other hand still has quite a few active traders that still press the keys to make a buy or sell. The reactions of the ALSI are in some cases over blown because of some form of nervousness. In my view that is the reason for the stagnation of the ALSI since 2014.

Befor 2010 there was still a connection between companies and stock prices, the issue of Greece and the EU problems forced the bigger banks to move to ALGO trading for a couple of reasons, the first is less staff and the second is that this kind of trading is off book and does not show on the balance sheet in real terms. They can now pass the tests for surviveability because the reality of there situations is no longer reported in any way. Debt and risk is not shown on the balance sheet anymore. 

So what will make this Bull end, The only way to stop the bull is to have an even to that will physically cause a wave to move through the market and get the market to move in ways that fall outside the scope of the ALGO, if that happens most of the ALGOs will do the reverse and start to play the market in the opposite direction. This would have to be something big and when the ALGOs change direction and move to the down side no one knows what that will do, the auto sell orders of the larger hedge funds and pension funds will make the drop dramatic and FAST. No one has ever played an ALGO in a bear market and I think some of the crashes are going to be eye opening.

From an ALSI point of view our market is going to react to rand dollar movements in over reactions as usual, it is also going to respond to political statements but the current bunch of politicians that make statements for the good of a voting campaign and no thought to the damage that it will do. Depending on the campaign and what happens to the current bunch of Cleptos we will resume upwards if the outcomes are favorable but if the current bunch put up a fight and make statements that make it worse we could see more of the over stated drops back to the bottom support line of 44 ish.

This bull will continue and only a black swan will change that. Any drops will be to the tune of 10 to 20 percent and then back up to current levels. 

 

The US market is full of cool aid and the ALLGOs are just adding to the euphoria. Will this last long term, an interesting indicator to look at is a mixture of the VIX and the employment numbers, history shows that every time the vix and the employment numbers are this low the wheels fall of spectacularly. According to the vIX this is going to be all happiness and roses for the rest of time. lowest since 1990.  Every time the US economy is supposedly at full employment the market does an about face and heads for the exit door. 100 years of thinking the world is round because everyone is supposedly employed has caught the financial establishment off guard every single time. You simply cant trust numbers that dont take into account the people that have stopped looking for work because there just are no jobs. Just because the people are employed waiting tables does not make the economy right especially if the person waiting tables is an investment banker or a doctor.

 

when this ends it is going to be something to watch, many are saying 2017 is the year it will end this run, if there is no black swan nothing will change, there will be ups and downs but nothing catastrophic in my view. 

 

G

[pointbreak]

 

I also found this post from Caldaro most enlightening..  

http://tinyurl.com/ycbsstqp

 

 

 

 

Yes, very definitely. I tend to agree with the fact that we overate the role earnings, M&A and stock buy backs play. Investor confidence overrides any figures etc. No REAL confidence, no bull market drive. Real confidence can only happen when we feel organic growth on a big scale is possible - LONG TERM.

Also I liked the idea that GDP is coupled to the debt situation and to big governments. Really its all very logical when you think about it.

Thanks. Great article!

[Snippit]

Beware of seeking comfort in articles posted on the internet. You must do your own work and maybe consult privately with those who's opinions you trust. 

 

Thats OK but not enough is written about the free ride that financial service providers give themselves at the ongoing expense of their victims.

[Phi]

Beware of seeking comfort in articles posted on the internet. You must do your own work and maybe consult privately with those who's opinions you trust. 

[Snippit]

Very insightful!!!

Thank you for your kind postings and analysis. it truly helps

 

I also found this post from Caldaro most enlightening..  

http://tinyurl.com/ycbsstqp

 

 

 

[pointbreak]

Caldaro took a look at the very big picture in his long term view in April and advises that the bull from 2009 can still run for a few years...

http://tinyurl.com/ybv848yx

Very insightful!!!

Thank you for your kind postings and analysis. it truly helps

Edited by pointbreak, 25 July 2017 - 04:28 PM.

[Snippit]

Hedge funds bail their mindless resources shorts led by Barclays. Oil & metals catch a bid.

Looks like dollar gonna get bids too and the Rand prop going to be removed.

Its just the overdue sector rotation.