35854 replies to this topic

[warnerbroers]

Yo W,

 

That v wave to complete 5 of wave bigger 1 you mentioned!So bigger wave 2 down could get nasty.....

 

Macd's certainly agrees with you!

 

A

a 400 point drop?...what do you think.....nastier the better 

[Argento]

Thanks for the kind words A! Appreciate the kind words to a newbie poster.

 

You are spot on, I have read Reminiscences from cover to cover more times than I can count.

 

I have been following the forum and seen some interesting things. I decided to comment purely because I see the mistakes I made that people are still making.

 

I have made all the classical ones:

·         Overitrading

·         Too much exposure

·         Revenge trading

·         Trading against the trend etc etc etc

 

But the biggest lesson I learnt was from Livermore, when he says that he made the most money sitting on his position, catching the big waves. This ONE thing is the most important lesson I have learnt. If you sit on the big wave and are comfortable with it, the small ripples just add some excitement. You don't have to trade every day to make money.

 

I have used Elliot Waves but I sometimes have difficult matching the waves so I am yet to master this.

 

If you haven’t seen it yet, youtube 1987 Investing Documentary. One of the greats!   

Good you eat and sleep the advice from that book....100mil strong in the early 1900's and his own money!!But what I respect the most of him is he never gave up, lost everything 7 times but refused to let his dream go and at the end became a legend in speculation, therefore it is an art and can me mastered!

 

Lost a lot of money when I started and tried so many strategy's, from following the Aussie dollar to oil, using cycles and following other analysts but at the end it does not help if you understand why she is doing what she is doing, especially the TOP40 as it is commodity related and can be very volatile!

 

Don't know if you follow Tony Caldaro but is worth following that man, in the end my chart is still my number one indicator but I'm using his Elliott wave terminology on our market and it works, together with applying the sitting tight rule and having knowledge on candles, bollingerbands, moving averages etc one can ride the waves within, but still focusing on the bigger ones!

 

His site is http://www.caldaro.wordpress.com/ and give updates every night and weekend!

 

A

[Wingnut]

Thanks for the kind words A! Appreciate the kind words to a newbie poster.

 

You are spot on, I have read Reminiscences from cover to cover more times than I can count.

 

I have been following the forum and seen some interesting things. I decided to comment purely because I see the mistakes I made that people are still making.

 

I have made all the classical ones:

·         Overitrading

·         Too much exposure

·         Revenge trading

·         Trading against the trend etc etc etc

 

But the biggest lesson I learnt was from Livermore, when he says that he made the most money sitting on his position, catching the big waves. This ONE thing is the most important lesson I have learnt. If you sit on the big wave and are comfortable with it, the small ripples just add some excitement. You don't have to trade every day to make money.

 

I have used Elliot Waves but I sometimes have difficult matching the waves so I am yet to master this.

 

If you haven’t seen it yet, youtube 1987 Investing Documentary. One of the greats!   

Thanks for the post. Im guilty of all 4 points raised despite having read all of the classics at least once. Even have the Livermore audio in the car I think. Nothing wrong with revisiting the logic offered in these books.

[sequoia]

Assume you have read Reminiscence of a Stock Operator, cause your strategy is spot on and where the big money lies, well done!

 

Could use more input from guys like you!

 

But with your 'trading against the trend' I fully agree, most of my losses came from shorts, very dangerous especially in a liquidity driven market like we have, but then the drops is just as nasty!

 

Do you use Elliott waves? Must say opened up a whole new world for me, at least now one knows where we are and the size of the pullbacks one can expect!

 

A

 

Thanks for the kind words A! Appreciate the kind words to a newbie poster.

 

You are spot on, I have read Reminiscences from cover to cover more times than I can count.

 

I have been following the forum and seen some interesting things. I decided to comment purely because I see the mistakes I made that people are still making.

 

I have made all the classical ones:

·         Overitrading

·         Too much exposure

·         Revenge trading

·         Trading against the trend etc etc etc

 

But the biggest lesson I learnt was from Livermore, when he says that he made the most money sitting on his position, catching the big waves. This ONE thing is the most important lesson I have learnt. If you sit on the big wave and are comfortable with it, the small ripples just add some excitement. You don't have to trade every day to make money.

 

I have used Elliot Waves but I sometimes have difficult matching the waves so I am yet to master this.

 

If you haven’t seen it yet, youtube 1987 Investing Documentary. One of the greats!   

Edited by sequoia, 15 July 2014 - 02:48 PM.

[Argento]

 

approaching iv of wave 1 (small iv) or maybe we've just hit it as i type....now up to v to complete wave 1 of 5?

 

Yo W,

 

That v wave to complete 5 of wave bigger 1 you mentioned!So bigger wave 2 down could get nasty.....

 

Macd's certainly agrees with you!

 

A

[sequoia]

My problem is when trading CFD's I cant absorb or stomach a 2.5% reversal and still sit tight on my longs unless I play extremely small. 5 to 10% will equate to MANY thousands of Rands which could prompt me to jump off the 9th floor balcony onto the devils fork fence. I have seriously considered (unsuccessfully) accumulating longs by holding on to one or two teeny weeny longs through "the valley of the shadow of death" out the other side then doing the same through the next dip but my head tells me a good correction could see my longs in the red for a Loooong time.

 

I see the predicament but what about looking at average volatility of a stock, index etc. If a stock is twice as volatile, have half the exposure of your average trade. If half as volatile, your notional is twice the average size. I for one love stable companies that I can take large leverages exposures that grind higher but don't move massively up or down.

 

This isn't a new concept. Look up a man called Richard Dennis and Turtle Trading. When I first started trading I looked purely at notional exposures, which was an error on my part. I now am more interested in average true range and the like.

[Argento]

I fully agree, I also would never have thought we would be where we are now. I have been 'lucky' enough to catch most of the bull so far but that is through risk management more than balls. I trade longer terms swings so am prepared to trade in a direction that allows the 5 to 10% corrections to happen every so often. This allows me to not get shaken off the bull. 

 

I prefer to spend my resources looking for great entry points onto the primary trend rather than looking for counter trend trades. This lesson I had to learn the hard way. It negates most of the behavioral biases that I have.

 

By the way thanks for the great charts and TA Argento!

Assume you have read Reminiscence of a Stock Operator, cause your strategy is spot on and where the big money lies, well done!

 

Could use more input from guys like you!

 

But with your 'trading against the trend' I fully agree, most of my losses came from shorts, very dangerous especially in a liquidity driven market like we have, but then the drops is just as nasty!

 

Do you use Elliott waves? Must say opened up a whole new world for me, at least now one knows where we are and the size of the pullbacks one can expect!

 

A

[grantmu]

i have 46231 and low on J200 was 46278...

that sounds about right, what are you looking for. 

[Motion Picture]

Nobody knew this thing would have run so high as she did and currently do...hope you caught the BIIIIG wave!!?

 

 

A

 

Yea A...my account looking super healthy...3 of my 5 longs now in green. I must say, I find contrarian trades very profitable - with good risk management. They make it easy to ride the "biiig wave"!

[davidp13]

46238

i have 46231 and low on J200 was 46278...

[Casenova]

The market is watching you my friend! Post your intention to go short on the forum, then buy kitchen sink longs without saying a word.

LMFAO, I also feel as if there is hidden cameras in my office sometimes...

[Wingnut]

I fully agree, I also would never have thought we would be where we are now. I have been 'lucky' enough to catch most of the bull so far but that is through risk management more than balls. I trade longer terms swings so am prepared to trade in a direction that allows the 5 to 10% corrections to happen every so often. This allows me to not get shaken off the bull. 

 

I prefer to spend my resources looking for great entry points onto the primary trend rather than looking for counter trend trades. This lesson I had to learn the hard way. It negates most of the behavioral biases that I have.

 

By the way thanks for the great charts and TA Argento!

My problem is when trading CFD's I cant absorb or stomach a 2.5% reversal and still sit tight on my longs unless I play extremely small. 5 to 10% will equate to MANY thousands of Rands which could prompt me to jump off the 9th floor balcony onto the devils fork fence. I have seriously considered (unsuccessfully) accumulating longs by holding on to one or two teeny weeny longs through "the valley of the shadow of death" out the other side then doing the same through the next dip but my head tells me a good correction could see my longs in the red for a Loooong time.

[grantmu]

i need someone to have a look that is trading with IG - what was the lowest today from 9am? anyone please!!!

46238

[Dallas]

46231, 46237...

[Casenova]

i need someone to have a look that is trading with IG - what was the lowest today from 9am? anyone please!!!

46231 on the mini contract. Why?

[grantmu]

stops tripped on contracts for the day, still holding some long at 500 + points, will hold that till Friday, if it drops a reasonable amount will jump back in, spectator for now. 

[davidp13]

i need someone to have a look that is trading with IG - what was the lowest today from 9am? anyone please!!!

[Vertebrae]

Increasing US 10 yr rate slows markets just a tad... well until > 4% or so...

 

 

 

 

 

[Casenova]

Just got the latest...FYI

Attached Files

•  15072014TechnicalAnalysis.pdf   1.26MB   30 downloads

[Wingnut]

Yes Wingnut at least i am constant in going the wrong way some good advice go opposite of me and make money

The market is watching you my friend! Post your intention to go short on the forum, then buy kitchen sink longs without saying a word.