35854 replies to this topic

[bullsnbears44]

Be careful of today's closeout.

[Ninja]

Is alsi struggling to go up... or struggling to fall further?

[Mostlya]

This reaction to collapsing us data is nothing short of amazing. The crash is going to be the biggest in history. There's no doubt anymore

[bullsnbears44]

Have you any view on whether the Fed might move the market. Specifically with reference to balance sheet unwind?

I don't see how they're going to unwind anything with the debt ceiling approaching. Treasury yields are in agreement with me at the moment. Question remains however if they do indicate some plan to unwind what affect would that have on the Rand?

I doubt it will move the market much. A hike has been priced in already and I doubt the Fed won't go ahead with it. They want to unwind but they've painted themselves into a corner. In any event the Fed has zero credibility left with their constant flip-flops over the last two years. The market hardly believes anything they say anymore.

[Mostlya]

A gap up but I expect it to drift lower as the day goes on. The market is extremely weak at the moment. I expect a another day or two for a base to form before we see a bounce.

Have you any view on whether the Fed might move the market. Specifically with reference to balance sheet unwind?

I don't see how they're going to unwind anything with the debt ceiling approaching. Treasury yields are in agreement with me at the moment. Question remains however if they do indicate some plan to unwind what affect would that have on the Rand?

[bullsnbears44]

Large upswing today by the looks of it. Tencent close to Ath again

A gap up but I expect it to drift lower as the day goes on. The market is extremely weak at the moment. I expect a another day or two for a base to form before we see a bounce.

[Mostlya]

Large upswing today by the looks of it. Tencent close to Ath again

[Halfday]

A technical study of USD/ZAR v USD index involving Elliott larger wave counts provides directional and other indications...

 

USDZARDX-w.png

Thanks Snippit...

 

Even with  rate increases expected the USD index keeps drifting lower....

This is the opposite of what we thought would happen,,, so perhaps they are printing money like there is no tomorrow....

[Snippit]

Wondering if thats it for the bounce...

The ZAR is not really weakening...

 

A technical study of USD/ZAR v USD index involving Elliott larger wave counts provides directional and other indications...

 

 USDZARDX-w.png   238.36KB   14 downloads

[TraderGirl]

I use DWT. Only use it for Alsi and Almi. I think they're relatively cheap. 3 points per trade brokerage cost

 

I use them too.

https://www.dwt.co.za/

 

Their trading platform:

http://www.estuaryso....com/index.html

[Ninja]

Thanks...

[Mostlya]

Im looking for a new broker... any suggestions?

I use DWT. Only use it for Alsi and Almi. I think they're relatively cheap. 3 points per trade brokerage cost

[Ninja]

Im looking for a new broker... any suggestions?

[Mostlya]

Agreed. Things are looking up for the Rand. The biggest danger is the politics of the country.

Definitely in the short-term it's a game changer as we saw with Gordon's firing. In the longer term it simply serves to suppress the demand for our longer dates government bonds and keeps those yields attractive

[bullsnbears44]

I still think the main driver is the yield search. The Rand will weaken when 10 and 30 yr yields in developed nations pick up. That will require real uptick in their economies. Credit impulse is currently signaling the top the economic cycle has been reached and things have a high chance of weakening from here.

I think the Rand is looking for 14 against the Pound (200 monthly MA)

Agreed. Things are looking up for the Rand. The biggest danger is the politics of the country.

[Mostlya]

Wondering if thats it for the bounce...
The ZAR is not really weakening...

I still think the main driver is the yield search. The Rand will weaken when 10 and 30 yr yields in developed nations pick up. That will require real uptick in their economies. Credit impulse is currently signaling the top the economic cycle has been reached and things have a high chance of weakening from here.

I think the Rand is looking for 14 against the Pound (200 monthly MA)

[Halfday]

I think the downgrades have already been priced in. It's common knowledge that the banks would automatically be downgraded after the credit downgrade. There might even be a bit of light at the end of the tunnel. Zuma and his friends' days are clearly numbered. I'm certain he'll be recalled as president if his side lose the ANC elections. When he goes I expect the Rand to shoot the lights out. Here's hoping.

Wondering if thats it for the bounce...

The ZAR is not really weakening...

[bullsnbears44]

ZAR should weaken now that we took a severe downgrade on our banks ,,,

Probably get a big bounce because earnings in foreign currency of most of TOP40...

Still very scary because we will eventually end up with higher interest rates and the country burning to counter inflation due to white monopoly capital,,foreign forces etc etc blah blah crap as usual,,,,

Good luck Gigaba with the budget,,,,

What you going to do  ..maybe more taxes,,,,print more money,,,,you will need it!!!!

Pity about your buddies the guptas they cant help you now...

I think the downgrades have already been priced in. It's common knowledge that the banks would automatically be downgraded after the credit downgrade. There might even be a bit of light at the end of the tunnel. Zuma and his friends' days are clearly numbered. I'm certain he'll be recalled as president if his side lose the ANC elections. When he goes I expect the Rand to shoot the lights out. Here's hoping.

[Halfday]

Bulls have been slaughtered the last two weeks. Expect a bounce on this heavily oversold market. I'll add to shorts on the bounce.

ZAR should weaken now that we took a severe downgrade on our banks ,,,

Probably get a big bounce because earnings in foreign currency of most of TOP40...

Still very scary because we will eventually end up with higher interest rates and the country burning to counter inflation due to white monopoly capital,,foreign forces etc etc blah blah crap as usual,,,,

Good luck Gigaba with the budget,,,,

What you going to do  ..maybe more taxes,,,,print more money,,,,you will need it!!!!

Pity about your buddies the guptas they cant help you now...

[bullsnbears44]

Bulls have been slaughtered the last two weeks. Expect a bounce on this heavily oversold market. I'll add to shorts on the bounce.