Jump to content


Photo
- - - - -

ANG : AT A BARGAIN PRICE?


  • Please log in to reply
47 replies to this topic

#21 MICK RICHARDSON

MICK RICHARDSON

    Sage

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,433 posts
  • LocationWELTEVREDEN PARK

Posted 07 March 2013 - 03:26 PM

Hi Vader

Thanks for your input.

I agree with what you say and I also believe that the government has to stay out of business if they want it to grow and employ more people.

After all, it is the shareholders money at stake not the governments, I also believe that the shareholders must be allowed to get some return on their investment.

Who would be better qualified at knowing what is best for the long term future of a business? The man who has real qualifications and has spent all his life in the business, or a government official who has probably acquired a position because of cadre employment policies.

In the long run, if there is no return, why should you be required to lose your life's savings, by keeping the company going at a loss just to employ people?

Nobody in their right mind would put their life savings into a business if they are pressured into being unprofitable.

My previous posting's comment on the profitability of ANG's future, of course assumes that government's sensibility and understanding, would allow ANG to return to its previous glory.

We can only hope.

Regards

Theaphelion Cool
  • 0

#22 Nick B

Nick B

    Vader

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,205 posts
  • LocationJohannesburg

Posted 07 March 2013 - 01:49 PM

Interesting reading.
What I took out of it was this.....
"
Fourth-quarter adjusted headline earnings were $7-million, or $0.02c a share, compared with $295-million, or $0.76c a share in the fourth quarter of 2011. "

$7 million verses $295 million ??????? That is 1,4% of the previous year - or 98,6% less. ?????

Small wonder the price has tanked so badly. And please don't be naive and think that there won't be another strike this year.

IMHO the only way that the gold mines will still be around in a few years is if the $ price of gold increases by between 10 and 15% per year. If this does not happen and the rest of the world keeps producing gold at lower input costs than the SA mines do, what is the point.

It must be pretty frustrating being in a management position in any one of our mines where you are not able to close down shafts or mines that are financially unviable. Instead the government forces them to stay open and run at a loss adversely effecting the profits being made at another mine. You may have noticed that I have not even mentioned the "N" word yet.

This is not stuff that I have dreamt up - most of it comes from a casual chat with one of the gold mines CEO last weekend.

Use it - don't use it - and happy trading
  • 0

#23 MICK RICHARDSON

MICK RICHARDSON

    Sage

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,433 posts
  • LocationWELTEVREDEN PARK

Posted 07 March 2013 - 12:53 PM

Hi hdbb

Just trying to put some perspective on the situation.

Cutifani's comments were not old history. They were made a couple of weeks ago. May I reproduce the whole article.


By: Martin Creamer
20th February 2013
TEXT SIZE JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) The negative sentiment on South African had been "significantly overblown" at a time when the right things were being done, outgoing AngloGold Ashanti CEO Mark Cutifani said on Wednesday.

After delivering his last set of AngloGold Ashanti results for 2012 the company's second-highest ever yearly earnings of $924-million despite the negative impact of last year's strikes, Cutifani said that AngloGold Ashanti's share price should be trading at around $60 a share on the New York Stock Exchange based on earnings and cash-flow growth since 2008 rather than the current $27 a share.

The company was introducing the new ounces at half the price of the industry, which, he was confident, would eventually stand it in good stead.

But in the meantime, its share price was being discounted as a result of negative sentiment towards South Africa, as was also the case with South Africa's other gold majors.

"The great frustration is the share price," said Cutifani, who takes up the position of CEO of Anglo American on April 3.

He said he remained "immensely confident" about the future of South Africa and praised Minerals Minister Susan Shabangu for bringing the two conflicting mine unions together to sign an accord.

"That's the sort of leadership the world needs to see," added Australia-born Cutifani, who is also president of the Chamber of Mines of South Africa.

"In my view, the fundamentals are sound in South Africa. We're getting back to the right conversations and we're becoming much more sensitive about headlines and people trying one-upmanship.

"If we work together and manage the perception of how we're dealing with the issues, it will get us back on track for people to be comfortable to invest in the country for the future, and that's what we want to see," Cutifani told Mining Weekly Online in a video interview (see attached).

While there was a calculation doing the rounds that AngloGold Ashanti was 68% undervalued, Cutifani believed it to be more than that.

Delivery against objectives had been the best in the industry in the last five years, with industry-leading earnings up 500%, safety improvement up 70%, environmental protection up 70% and community relations in a new paradigm.

It was the gold industry's best-performing stock in the period from 2008 to 2011 by a considerable margin.

The company was looking at all options to unlock that value. At this stage, a physical structural change like unbundling did not appear to be a compelling case.

Investments were continuing in the company's Mponeng and Moab Khotsong gold mines in South Africa to ensure stable production for more than 30 years.

"We have always been a strong promoter of the future of South Africa and of transformation," Cutifani said.

Work on new technologies was setting the company up for a "great" half-century of operation.

"These technologies still need people and are so important for safety and long-term productivity, and, in the long term, will actually create more jobs.

"In the short term, they do present some challenges, but we would look at our natural attrition and work with people to change the operation over time, so that we don't create major shocks in terms of employment," he said.

Only the gold-bearing rock would be extracted, which meant that only a third of the material needed to be moved to achieve the same amount of production.

"Mining at 5 000 m is tough using any sort of technology, so it also has to be fundamentally more efficient to create a 30- to 50-year life," Cutifani said, adding that AngloGold Ashanti would be more than happy to share the technologies with the rest of the mining industry, particularly around the safety aspects.

Exploration spend across the group has been rationalised, corporate and operating costs are undergoing a review, some assets deemed to be noncore are being considered for sale and capital expenditure (capex) has been prioritised.

"We've moved decisively to ensure that we continue a strong recovery from a difficult end to last year," joint interim CEO Tony O'Neill said.

O'Neill has had oversight of all operating and exploration functions while fellow joint interim CEO Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan has had accountability for all financial and corporate matters.

The $924-million adjusted headline earnings for the year suffered a $208-million strike erosion.

Production in 2012 was 3.94-million ounces at a total cash cost of $862/oz, which included about 235 000 oz lost to the strike.

The company said that it continued to seek to better the quality and diversity of its portfolio.

Its main greenfield projects at Tropicana, in Australia, and the Kibali joint venture, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, remained on track to produce gold within a year.

The expansion of Cripple Creek & Victor mine, in the US, also remained on schedule.

Production in 2013 was anticipated to grow to between 4.1-million ounces and 4.4-million ounces at an improved total cash cost of $815/oz to $845/oz.

More focused investment in the business had helped the company to forecast stable capex of $2.1-billion for 2013.

Corporate costs were expected to decline by about 18% to $240-million.

Spending on exploration and feasibility studies was forecast at about $377-million, 18% lower than in 2012.

"Our focus is on improving margins and delivering returns, rather than production growth, and that will continue to drive our decision-making," Venkatakrishnan said, adding that the company had good projects and a solid financial base.

Its underground development contract with Mining and Building Contractors at Obuasi mine, in Ghana, had been terminated in an effort to improve production and costs.

Geita, in Tanzania, was the group's largest production contributor, improving yearly production by 7% to 531 000 oz at a total cash cost of $660/oz.

Production for the year rose in the America's region from 891 000 oz to 953 000 oz and the Australian operations increased output to 258 000 oz from 246 000 oz.

Fourth Quarter

Fourth-quarter adjusted headline earnings were $7-million, or $0.02c a share, compared with $295-million, or $0.76c a share in the fourth quarter of 2011.

The earnings were affected by the lower volumes and higher cash costs during the quarter, reflecting the impact of the strike in South Africa, which eroded $208-million of earnings; the change-over of the mine development contractor at Obuasi; and other factors which had a negative impact.

A strong performance from the Americas region was primarily offset by the strikes in South Africa.

Despite challenges faced in South Africa, Standard & Poor's affirmed the investment-grade rating on AngloGold Ashanti's publicly traded debt following an extensive review.

At Tropicana, one-million ounces were added to the resource and the organisation achieved the lowest quarterly injury-frequency rate on record at 6.17 per million hours worked.

Edited by: Creamer Media Reporter


Sorry it was not Over R500 that was Anglo's (AGL) most humble appologies hdbb my mistake it was R380/share.

But what Mark Cutifani said does look encouraging doesn't it.


Regards

Theaphelion Cool




(
  • 0

#24 HDB

HDB

    The Oracle

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,229 posts
  • LocationBy the sea

Posted 07 March 2013 - 12:24 PM

THEAPHELION wrote on Thu, 07 March 2013 12:00

Hi Guys

Cutifani recons if it is measured on the same scale as overseas gold shares it is worth around US $60/share (R500/share).

Don't forget it used to be over R500/share some time ago.

Regards

Theaphelion Cool




Theap dont pump up the share !! Twisted Evil
Was never R500 a share and all gold shares even canadian and overseas ones are being sold off!! if he said that then he is talking k#k!!! Btw Anglos was over R600.00 and Ams was over R1400.00 to remember!!! So dont base Ang valuations on past history!!

  • 0

HDB

The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!


#25 MICK RICHARDSON

MICK RICHARDSON

    Sage

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,433 posts
  • LocationWELTEVREDEN PARK

Posted 07 March 2013 - 12:00 PM


Hi Guys

Cutifani recons if it is measured on the same scale as overseas gold shares it is worth around US $60/share (R500/share).

Don't forget it used to be over R500/share some time ago.

Regards

Theaphelion Cool


  • 0

#26 zoner

zoner

    Advanced Member

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 272 posts
  • LocationSouth Africa

Posted 07 March 2013 - 10:31 AM

Gold Mining @ +5% now.
How high can she go...?
Will this last through till tommorow too (it's still got a lot of catching up to do 1800 -> 2248)?
Shocked
  • 0
Paranoid Android

#27 Nick B

Nick B

    Vader

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,205 posts
  • LocationJohannesburg

Posted 07 March 2013 - 10:01 AM

Zico wrote on Thu, 07 March 2013 09:48
hdbb wrote on Thu, 07 March 2013 09:21
Zico wrote on Thu, 07 March 2013 09:14
hdbb wrote on Thu, 07 March 2013 09:08
Up 4% today...Perfect bounce to get out if you long!!! Get out of jail card!!!

I don't think so - The minimum target on this bounce is 228.66.


Ok, if you want more heart aches, sweating and anger mood swings, stay in!! Very Happy Very Happy


I't seems like I'll have to cope with all the above because my real target is actually R252.01.


Eish Zico - you need a small miracle.
Unfortunately neither the gold price nor oil price is supporting this bounce.
Seems like the BIG boys are playing their games and making oodles in the process.
I am waiting for reality to set in and going short.
  • 0

#28 oceancity

oceancity

    Sage

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,617 posts

Posted 07 March 2013 - 09:48 AM

hdbb wrote on Thu, 07 March 2013 09:21
Zico wrote on Thu, 07 March 2013 09:14
hdbb wrote on Thu, 07 March 2013 09:08
Up 4% today...Perfect bounce to get out if you long!!! Get out of jail card!!!

I don't think so - The minimum target on this bounce is 228.66.


Ok, if you want more heart aches, sweating and anger mood swings, stay in!! Very Happy Very Happy


I't seems like I'll have to cope with all the above because my real target is actually R252.01.
  • 0

#29 HDB

HDB

    The Oracle

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,229 posts
  • LocationBy the sea

Posted 07 March 2013 - 09:21 AM

Zico wrote on Thu, 07 March 2013 09:14
hdbb wrote on Thu, 07 March 2013 09:08
Up 4% today...Perfect bounce to get out if you long!!! Get out of jail card!!!

I don't think so - The minimum target on this bounce is 228.66.


Ok, if you want more heart aches, sweating and anger mood swings, stay in!! Very Happy Very Happy

  • 0

HDB

The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!


#30 oceancity

oceancity

    Sage

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,617 posts

Posted 07 March 2013 - 09:14 AM

hdbb wrote on Thu, 07 March 2013 09:08
Up 4% today...Perfect bounce to get out if you long!!! Get out of jail card!!!

I don't think so - The minimum target on this bounce is 228.66.
  • 0

#31 HDB

HDB

    The Oracle

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,229 posts
  • LocationBy the sea

Posted 07 March 2013 - 09:08 AM

Up 4% today...Perfect bounce to get out if you long!!! Get out of jail card!!!
  • 0

HDB

The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!


#32 HDB

HDB

    The Oracle

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,229 posts
  • LocationBy the sea

Posted 07 March 2013 - 09:00 AM

Ang to fly today
  • 0

HDB

The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!


#33 zoner

zoner

    Advanced Member

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 272 posts
  • LocationSouth Africa

Posted 07 March 2013 - 08:58 AM

Ninja wrote on Thu, 07 March 2013 08:25
up over 4% both in US and Australia today... too bad i got stopped in the last 15 mins yesterday!!

now that i'm out it should go up.... Very Happy looking to re-enter early


Ok, ok, I'm putting the gun down now....
Sad
  • 0
Paranoid Android

#34 Hit & Run

Hit & Run

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 165 posts
  • LocationBallito

Posted 07 March 2013 - 08:57 AM

On which website do you follow Ang's share price in Australia?

Ninja wrote on Thu, 07 March 2013 08:25
up over 4% both in US and Australia today... too bad i got stopped in the last 15 mins yesterday!!

now that i'm out it should go up.... Very Happy looking to re-enter early


  • 0

The mark of a professional, however, sounds like this:

         It is my fault.  I traded this position too large for my account size.

         It is my fault.  I didn’t stick to my own risk parameters.


#35 Ninja

Ninja

    Sage

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,328 posts
  • LocationJapan

Posted 07 March 2013 - 08:25 AM

up over 4% both in US and Australia today... too bad i got stopped in the last 15 mins yesterday!!

now that i'm out it should go up.... Very Happy looking to re-enter early
  • 0

#36 zoner

zoner

    Advanced Member

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 272 posts
  • LocationSouth Africa

Posted 06 March 2013 - 03:23 PM

Is there an alchemist in the house?
Please... somebody... anybody?
Crying or Very Sad
  • 0
Paranoid Android

#37 Ninja

Ninja

    Sage

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,328 posts
  • LocationJapan

Posted 06 March 2013 - 02:54 PM

sale still on below R213.00... waiting patiently for the afternoon when some mother decides to silently light a fire down under Laughing
  • 0

#38 HDB

HDB

    The Oracle

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,229 posts
  • LocationBy the sea

Posted 21 February 2013 - 08:53 PM

Ninja wrote on Thu, 21 February 2013 20:45
hdbb wrote on Thu, 21 February 2013 18:29
Ninja wrote on Thu, 21 February 2013 16:57
nevermind ANG GFI down 14% in the US as this minute!!! Embarassed


was never down 14% today...Is actually up.56% now!!



My side still showing 13.77% move... guess they having system isssues... can't cope with the sudden drop
Name Price Chg. Chg. %
GFI 8.89 -1.42 -13.77%
South Af. Futures 35049.00 -882.00 -2.45%
Switzerland 20 7505.71 -120.30 -1.58%
HMY 6.45 +0.20 +3.20%
US 30 Futures 13824.00 -65.00 -0.47%
S&P/ASX 200 4980.10 -118.61 -2.33%
Hang Sen 40 22906.67 -400.74 -1.72%
SPX 500 1500.20 -11.75 -0.78%


Your current price is right @ 8.89.
It closed yesterday @ 8.87
Therefore up .225% today so far!!

Check this link

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GFI
  • 0

HDB

The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!


#39 Ninja

Ninja

    Sage

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,328 posts
  • LocationJapan

Posted 21 February 2013 - 08:45 PM

hdbb wrote on Thu, 21 February 2013 18:29
Ninja wrote on Thu, 21 February 2013 16:57
nevermind ANG GFI down 14% in the US as this minute!!! Embarassed


was never down 14% today...Is actually up.56% now!!



My side still showing 13.77% move... guess they having system isssues... can't cope with the sudden drop
Name Price Chg. Chg. %
GFI 8.89 -1.42 -13.77%
South Af. Futures 35049.00 -882.00 -2.45%
Switzerland 20 7505.71 -120.30 -1.58%
HMY 6.45 +0.20 +3.20%
US 30 Futures 13824.00 -65.00 -0.47%
S&P/ASX 200 4980.10 -118.61 -2.33%
Hang Sen 40 22906.67 -400.74 -1.72%
SPX 500 1500.20 -11.75 -0.78%
  • 0

#40 Nick B

Nick B

    Vader

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,205 posts
  • LocationJohannesburg

Posted 21 February 2013 - 08:35 PM

Guys don't forget that GFI is still trying to finds it's price after the split. Don't try to compare GFI with HAR or ANG for a while. Obviously the first set of results or trading update from GFI will let everyone know the impact of the split and where it should be trading. Just look at what has happened with SGL in 4 days - up 20% in 2 days now down 23% the following 2 days. Can you imagine if you had called this one right - Bahamas here we come.
  • 0





Sponsored by Sharenet and VPSNine Linux VPS Hosting