7058 replies to this topic

[gamma]

Howzit cfd traders..

 

Its been a while. Thought id just fill in on my views here.

 

I read the last 10 pages on this thread and with all due respect to some traders like Delta who has carried this thread well, im nevertheless surprised and shocked that not one trader in this thread in the last week has said " Shot this or that" ???? Yes you heard me correctly!!

Come on guys easy money shorting last week or so and easy money has now already been made. I think too many on this forum have been influenced by people like Gamma and Sunesis who have consistently drummed up buy the dips and this market wont fall theory...If you carry on averaging down you in all probability dead by now...This is how the markets work. The but the dip theory would have made you small consistent profits regularly but the market will get back at you bigtime when she drops and the dips get deeper and deeper and you carry on averaging down.... and it carrys on going down until you throw in the towel, finished and klaared!!

 

When i came back from Ozz in mid October i was surprised or should i say shocked or even still very very happy and excited to see 

Shp @ R190

Tru @r 99

Tfg @R115.00

Msm @R160.00

Whl @ R76

 

Well christmas came very very early for me as i shorted SHp @190, TFG @115 and Tru @99 the day i arriived

and doubled up on shorts as they fell further  Shp @175   TRU R85  TFG R104

 

Further shorts SHP wen broke resistance R164  Tru R80 ,TFG R97  and MSM R146.00

 

All shorts have been closed on Friday   reason...double bottoms on SHP around R155 ,TRU R76 and TFG R94.00

 

MSM on a free fall and if Walmart does not start buying up these shares again they could go all way down to at least R100

 

Retailers have been the biggest short in the market and i have been calling it for last 6 months but guys like Gamma where having a big go at me....Well one who laughs last takes home the dollars i suppose...

 

Seeing these double bottoms i will be keeping a close eye on these 3 as they all seemed to bounce of the bottoms on Friday and now i would be looking at longs on these 3 for a recovery short term bounce....and then short the living daylights out of SHP to at least R140.00

 

For those who bought WHL in long term portfolio, good luck..i dont think you going to beat inflation with that investment!! In fact i say you could buy it below R65.00 12 months from now!

 

All this froth is now being cleaned up and my call is Alsi will still drop another 1200 points so one should be shorting rather then hoping and going long any stock  especially when rand is moving from R10.50 to R10.30 last week or so.. If this trend continues towards the R10.00 level we could be in for more pain!!!

 

Next biggest short to look for is ASPEN...Keep an eye on it especially next set of results...We could see this below R200.00 within next 12 months!!

 

Please dont follow me or anyone else who pumps and dumps in this forum ... Every time somebody pumps ask yourself this question, Does he own this stock? ...Do your own solid research as its your own hard earned money!!

 

Just reading certain threads and stocks shows up the pumpers.. Take the example of the 10 bagger new share thread. Someone says he sees MIX being a 10 bagger...Wow ..really??? I bought it at R2.8 and sold out at R6.00 and it now trades at about R4.20 At 6 bucks it was highly highly overpriced. I cant even understand how it went there..At beat it can go to R10.00 in 3 years but a 10 bagger to R50.00? Come on, thats only a pump or he is juts kidding himself!!! Do not fall for pumps like these even if they only opinions!! 

 

Happy trading...

 

LOL nice to hear you alive and kicking HDB. Was worried you might have jumped off the Harbour bridge down under!

 

ps, I have been long this market for a long time (3+ years now) and have been right to date. That said, I'm not married to being long and will call short when I see it turn. Like I said before, you can keep shouting short and eventually you will be right. As they say, a broken clock is still right twice a day.

 

And by the way, I'm still up 40% YTD, including my retailers WHL and MPC so that should speak for itself.

 

Truth is, you wrongly called a major sell in June..that was when I was 25% up for the year. Imagine I listened to you! Now I can happily take a 10% correction and still meet my 25% target for the year!

[delta66]

closed SBK 123.50

 

closed CML 80.00

Edited by delta66, 17 December 2013 - 11:07 AM.

[delta66]

closed APN 260.40

closed VOD 122.68

Edited by delta66, 17 December 2013 - 10:27 AM.

[delta66]

SGL never fails to $impress$...sell target 1250

 

 

sidenote: good to see HDB active on forum again, hope you well rested from that holiday mate.  i've always enjoyed reading your perspective on trades/market.  you're a great participant on this forum never shy in giving your opinion regardless of outcome(..usually on the money)

 

WELCOME BACK!!

[soutie]

Went long KIO R404

Court ruling in their favour last week & trading statement this morning..

Taper or not this looks.....winner winner chicken dinner

[Moonraker]

How Important is This Week’s Fed Decision?
 

I don’t believe, then, that this week’s meetings and subsequent announcement will be an important driver of real market moves, no matter what the hype. Whatever the decision, QE will still be around for the foreseeable future and short term interest rates will remain around zero; the policy will remain “accommodative.”

There will probably be a knee-jerk reaction to any announcement, but I will be looking to trade that reaction in a contrary manner rather than following momentum. This is particularly true if this week unfolds as I expect and Chairman Bernanke’s last press conference is used to announce no change for now. The prospect of continued QE may produce a rally, but there are other reasons I believe a correction is due before too long.

You could be forgiven for thinking, as the hype around the prospects for a reduction in QE builds this week that we are awaiting a momentous decision, but we aren’t; what will be announced will be simply a matter of the timing of a minor change to a long established policy. This change will undoubtedly have some effect, but it may turn out to be less important than you think.


Read more: http://www.nasdaq.co...4#ixzz2nek2t7iI

[cuzin]

Europe and America up big time today:)

[Bev]

Howzit cfd traders..

 

Its been a while. Thought id just fill in on my views here.

 

I read the last 10 pages on this thread and with all due respect to some traders like Delta who has carried this thread well, im nevertheless surprised and shocked that not one trader in this thread in the last week has said " Shot this or that" ???? Yes you heard me correctly!!

Come on guys easy money shorting last week or so and easy money has now already been made. I think too many on this forum have been influenced by people like Gamma and Sunesis who have consistently drummed up buy the dips and this market wont fall theory...If you carry on averaging down you in all probability dead by now...This is how the markets work. The but the dip theory would have made you small consistent profits regularly but the market will get back at you bigtime when she drops and the dips get deeper and deeper and you carry on averaging down.... and it carrys on going down until you throw in the towel, finished and klaared!!

 

When i came back from Ozz in mid October i was surprised or should i say shocked or even still very very happy and excited to see 

Shp @ R190

Tru @r 99

Tfg @R115.00

Msm @R160.00

Whl @ R76

 

Well christmas came very very early for me as i shorted SHp @190, TFG @115 and Tru @99 the day i arriived

and doubled up on shorts as they fell further  Shp @175   TRU R85  TFG R104

 

Further shorts SHP wen broke resistance R164  Tru R80 ,TFG R97  and MSM R146.00

 

All shorts have been closed on Friday   reason...double bottoms on SHP around R155 ,TRU R76 and TFG R94.00

 

MSM on a free fall and if Walmart does not start buying up these shares again they could go all way down to at least R100

 

Retailers have been the biggest short in the market and i have been calling it for last 6 months but guys like Gamma where having a big go at me....Well one who laughs last takes home the dollars i suppose...

 

Seeing these double bottoms i will be keeping a close eye on these 3 as they all seemed to bounce of the bottoms on Friday and now i would be looking at longs on these 3 for a recovery short term bounce....and then short the living daylights out of SHP to at least R140.00

 

For those who bought WHL in long term portfolio, good luck..i dont think you going to beat inflation with that investment!! In fact i say you could buy it below R65.00 12 months from now!

 

All this froth is now being cleaned up and my call is Alsi will still drop another 1200 points so one should be shorting rather then hoping and going long any stock  especially when rand is moving from R10.50 to R10.30 last week or so.. If this trend continues towards the R10.00 level we could be in for more pain!!!

 

Next biggest short to look for is ASPEN...Keep an eye on it especially next set of results...We could see this below R200.00 within next 12 months!!

 

Please dont follow me or anyone else who pumps and dumps in this forum ... Every time somebody pumps ask yourself this question, Does he own this stock? ...Do your own solid research as its your own hard earned money!!

 

Just reading certain threads and stocks shows up the pumpers.. Take the example of the 10 bagger new share thread. Someone says he sees MIX being a 10 bagger...Wow ..really??? I bought it at R2.8 and sold out at R6.00 and it now trades at about R4.20 At 6 bucks it was highly highly overpriced. I cant even understand how it went there..At beat it can go to R10.00 in 3 years but a 10 bagger to R50.00? Come on, thats only a pump or he is juts kidding himself!!! Do not fall for pumps like these even if they only opinions!! 

 

Happy trading...

Welcome back HDB, I have missed your posts each morning and hope to see more as your input means a lot to me and many others.  I hear what you are saying about retailers, but you do not mention MPC!  Would your valued opinion be the same for it as well?  I have traded this share many times and have experienced not to short it at the best of times.  Thank you in advance.

[AJS]

A break below 212 is a short for me on AGL!

[Zero Hedge]

So for me the crux of HBD's post is that the bull market from the 2009 lows is most probably over. In a bull market a BTD strategy works fine as a rising tide lifts all boats. The current environment will test investors stock picking skills and patience. It will provide opportunities to make money from the short side...shorting in a QE driven bull market was almost impossible and very dangerous (think short squeeze) and required a lot of skill...unless you were short ABL and Gold shares and retail in 2013 of course.

[Zero Hedge]

Good piece and well done on shorting the retailers...was limit short all of them myself towards back end of last year and into the January sales updates as share prices lost track with reality during that final push in Dec 2012. But some of them have fallen very hard and are starting to offer value...TFG at 95 cum a R2.50 divi on 27 Dec looks interesting. There is a self help story, the sale of RCS is likely to be concluded in early 2014 which will de-gear the balance sheet and allow company to undertake share buy backs. Also visited a number of Foschini stores today and although trading is tough it's not a disaster and sell side expectations are far more reasonable this time round. Just a reminder share was at 140 last year this time. TRU on the other hand is a different story...think they are in trouble and sales update in Jan and results in Feb could shock market. As far as SHP is concerned ...well 2013 was the first year in many that you could have made money playing it from the short side...so be happy. Not sure it will be that easy to make money from short side in 2014 though.Whitey is not chuffed with his share price being down 20 percent YTD and they are pulling all the stops. Anecdotal evidence suggest they are trading much better this time round...the base is soft and sell side expectations seems very reasonable.So will be surprised if this one falls much further from these levels. Woolies on the other hand is a difficult one...they are trading well and results in Feb will be strong but at some point market will start to worry about rising rates and the impact of that on top end consumer.

[HDB]

Howzit cfd traders..

 

Its been a while. Thought id just fill in on my views here.

 

I read the last 10 pages on this thread and with all due respect to some traders like Delta who has carried this thread well, im nevertheless surprised and shocked that not one trader in this thread in the last week has said " Shot this or that" ???? Yes you heard me correctly!!

Come on guys easy money shorting last week or so and easy money has now already been made. I think too many on this forum have been influenced by people like Gamma and Sunesis who have consistently drummed up buy the dips and this market wont fall theory...If you carry on averaging down you in all probability dead by now...This is how the markets work. The but the dip theory would have made you small consistent profits regularly but the market will get back at you bigtime when she drops and the dips get deeper and deeper and you carry on averaging down.... and it carrys on going down until you throw in the towel, finished and klaared!!

 

When i came back from Ozz in mid October i was surprised or should i say shocked or even still very very happy and excited to see 

Shp @ R190

Tru @r 99

Tfg @R115.00

Msm @R160.00

Whl @ R76

 

Well christmas came very very early for me as i shorted SHp @190, TFG @115 and Tru @99 the day i arriived

and doubled up on shorts as they fell further  Shp @175   TRU R85  TFG R104

 

Further shorts SHP wen broke resistance R164  Tru R80 ,TFG R97  and MSM R146.00

 

All shorts have been closed on Friday   reason...double bottoms on SHP around R155 ,TRU R76 and TFG R94.00

 

MSM on a free fall and if Walmart does not start buying up these shares again they could go all way down to at least R100

 

Retailers have been the biggest short in the market and i have been calling it for last 6 months but guys like Gamma where having a big go at me....Well one who laughs last takes home the dollars i suppose...

 

Seeing these double bottoms i will be keeping a close eye on these 3 as they all seemed to bounce of the bottoms on Friday and now i would be looking at longs on these 3 for a recovery short term bounce....and then short the living daylights out of SHP to at least R140.00

 

For those who bought WHL in long term portfolio, good luck..i dont think you going to beat inflation with that investment!! In fact i say you could buy it below R65.00 12 months from now!

 

All this froth is now being cleaned up and my call is Alsi will still drop another 1200 points so one should be shorting rather then hoping and going long any stock  especially when rand is moving from R10.50 to R10.30 last week or so.. If this trend continues towards the R10.00 level we could be in for more pain!!!

 

Next biggest short to look for is ASPEN...Keep an eye on it especially next set of results...We could see this below R200.00 within next 12 months!!

 

Please dont follow me or anyone else who pumps and dumps in this forum ... Every time somebody pumps ask yourself this question, Does he own this stock? ...Do your own solid research as its your own hard earned money!!

 

Just reading certain threads and stocks shows up the pumpers.. Take the example of the 10 bagger new share thread. Someone says he sees MIX being a 10 bagger...Wow ..really??? I bought it at R2.8 and sold out at R6.00 and it now trades at about R4.20 At 6 bucks it was highly highly overpriced. I cant even understand how it went there..At beat it can go to R10.00 in 3 years but a 10 bagger to R50.00? Come on, thats only a pump or he is juts kidding himself!!! Do not fall for pumps like these even if they only opinions!! 

 

Happy trading...

[delta66]

just got out of TFG now have TRU screwing me...    day's like these are trying even for those with deep accounts.

[alexander]

Getting hammered on SOL today

[soutie]

Cut agl, imp, sol and sab ouch

When these foreigners dump there's no finesse to it & we local retail investors have no chance.....

[@sirgrantfleming]

I was there yesterday

Worst is, agl and imp will prob head up from here hahaha

[AJS]

Cut agl, imp, sol and sab ouch

 

I was there yesterday

[@sirgrantfleming]

Cut agl, imp, sol and sab ouch

[delta66]

Tough one delta. I feel your pain.

thx bro!..best of luck to those still in

[Aragorn]

i've cut TFG today guys...far better long options out there without the associated stress. all my profit from current trades sacrificed to offset loss

Tough one delta. I feel your pain.