7058 replies to this topic

[CPvanWyk]

Gamma your argument or should i say facts about foreign exchange is absolutely correct..This is the exact reason why i shorted MTN at its all time high before results tomorrow.. Here is an an extract from its trading statement:

 

Shareholders are advised that MTN expects an increase of between 20% and 25% in headline

earnings per share ("HEPS") for the six months ended 30 June 2013 when compared against the

previously reported corresponding period.

 

The HEPS for the six month period are positively affected by foreign exchange gains of

approximately R1.0 billion compared to foreign exchange losses of approximately R1.5 billion in the

prior year related to some of the group’s subsidiaries resulting in markedly lower net finance costs.

 

So profits up between 20 to 25% but what type of profit is the key. is it operational or forex gains?? Looks more like a turnover of some R2.5b forex gain compared to last year..Lets see tomorrow. With alsi on IG already up over 200 points i may have to sweat it out a day or two before she pulls back..But ill cut my loss if it shoots above R200.00

 

 

As for MSM this is what i picked up for results ending 30 June 2012

 

Although the Rand weakened against the Dollar

during the financial year, the Group incurred a foreign

exchange translation loss on its African businesses of

R72.5 million due to the unrealised translation loss

caused by the significant currency devaluation in

Malawi in May 2012.

 

So it appears they made a forex gain this year on their Malawi business..

Still however with a p/e of nearly 25, results were not convincing and more punishment will be in store!!

 

 

What is you view on the financials?

 

 

Gamma your argument or should i say facts about foreign exchange is absolutely correct..This is the exact reason why i shorted MTN at its all time high before results tomorrow.. Here is an an extract from its trading statement:

 

Shareholders are advised that MTN expects an increase of between 20% and 25% in headline

earnings per share ("HEPS") for the six months ended 30 June 2013 when compared against the

previously reported corresponding period.

 

The HEPS for the six month period are positively affected by foreign exchange gains of

approximately R1.0 billion compared to foreign exchange losses of approximately R1.5 billion in the

prior year related to some of the group’s subsidiaries resulting in markedly lower net finance costs.

 

So profits up between 20 to 25% but what type of profit is the key. is it operational or forex gains?? Looks more like a turnover of some R2.5b forex gain compared to last year..Lets see tomorrow. With alsi on IG already up over 200 points i may have to sweat it out a day or two before she pulls back..But ill cut my loss if it shoots above R200.00

 

 

As for MSM this is what i picked up for results ending 30 June 2012

 

Although the Rand weakened against the Dollar

during the financial year, the Group incurred a foreign

exchange translation loss on its African businesses of

R72.5 million due to the unrealised translation loss

caused by the significant currency devaluation in

Malawi in May 2012.

 

So it appears they made a forex gain this year on their Malawi business..

Still however with a p/e of nearly 25, results were not convincing and more punishment will be in store!!

[gamma]

..should of shorted HAR today again

 

 

we were too agressive with our stops yesterday

[alexander]

Tencent missed estimates

NPN taking a beating.

[Dabre]

Any idea what is going on with Aspen, is the deal very close or something? It just keeps climbing. 

After NPN took a beating today I shorted APN @23400 it usually goes down after NPN

[Investor1]

Any takers on sab?   support at 470 

Went long at 47380, coming close to its short term resistance. 

Edited by Investor1, 14 August 2013 - 11:59 AM.

[Ninja]

there you go and spoil it.....

[delta66]

NPN taking a beating.

[cuzin]

Any idea what is going on with Aspen, is the deal very close or something? It just keeps climbing. 

[delta66]

..should of shorted HAR today again  

[HDB]

Gamma your argument or should i say facts about foreign exchange is absolutely correct..This is the exact reason why i shorted MTN at its all time high before results tomorrow.. Here is an an extract from its trading statement:

 

Shareholders are advised that MTN expects an increase of between 20% and 25% in headline

earnings per share ("HEPS") for the six months ended 30 June 2013 when compared against the

previously reported corresponding period.

 

The HEPS for the six month period are positively affected by foreign exchange gains of

approximately R1.0 billion compared to foreign exchange losses of approximately R1.5 billion in the

prior year related to some of the group’s subsidiaries resulting in markedly lower net finance costs.

 

So profits up between 20 to 25% but what type of profit is the key. is it operational or forex gains?? Looks more like a turnover of some R2.5b forex gain compared to last year..Lets see tomorrow. With alsi on IG already up over 200 points i may have to sweat it out a day or two before she pulls back..But ill cut my loss if it shoots above R200.00

 

 

As for MSM this is what i picked up for results ending 30 June 2012

 

Although the Rand weakened against the Dollar

during the financial year, the Group incurred a foreign

exchange translation loss on its African businesses of

R72.5 million due to the unrealised translation loss

caused by the significant currency devaluation in

Malawi in May 2012.

 

So it appears they made a forex gain this year on their Malawi business..

Still however with a p/e of nearly 25, results were not convincing and more punishment will be in store!!

 

 

 

 

HDB..brave putting trades on stocks before results..more gambling than anything.

As for MSM, u give me some doubts now but my interpretation is always that to compare YoY results you compare before FX so as to avoid FX fluctuations (outside of company control). I'm used to it being reported as an FX 'neutral' result which corrects for FX change. If MSM means something other here then I stand corrected on my earlier statement. If I am correct however then MSM earnings is down 4-15% over prior year. On there current PE u would expect at least 30% growth.

As for Aspen, their PE is very high but will reduce once the future earnings of all these recent deals are factored in. I'm quite comfortable with it.

[gamma]

Imagine the Top 40 Alsi guys who shorted when dow when heavy into the red!! 

 

Not sure what those guys are up to over there on the ALSI thread. For days now they shorting a market in an upward trend. Then it breaks its ATH and that's a sign to double down? So much for the 'trend is your friend'..

 

I think they missing old Randal on that thread...to quote "top pickers and bottom pickers end up cotton pickers!"

[gamma]

HDB..brave putting trades on stocks before results..more gambling than anything.

As for MSM, u give me some doubts now but my interpretation is always that to compare YoY results you compare before FX so as to avoid FX fluctuations (outside of company control). I'm used to it being reported as an FX 'neutral' result which corrects for FX change. If MSM means something other here then I stand corrected on my earlier statement. If I am correct however then MSM earnings is down 4-15% over prior year. On there current PE u would expect at least 30% growth.

As for Aspen, their PE is very high but will reduce once the future earnings of all these recent deals are factored in. I'm quite comfortable with it.

 

 

On the other hand, if I'm wrong then their earnings is up by as much as 50 something % which more than justifies their current PE! and then your shorts on retail really would be in the #$%#!

 

To be honest, I don't know MSM well but gut feeling for an SA company to have that much of a swing from pre/post FX would mean that the bulk of their earnings is coming ex-SA. Is this the case? Just read an article now that states only 7% of their earnings comes from outside SA. Something doesn't add up...

[gamma]

HDB..brave putting trades on stocks before results..more gambling than anything.

As for MSM, u give me some doubts now but my interpretation is always that to compare YoY results you compare before FX so as to avoid FX fluctuations (outside of company control). I'm used to it being reported as an FX 'neutral' result which corrects for FX change. If MSM means something other here then I stand corrected on my earlier statement. If I am correct however then MSM earnings is down 4-15% over prior year. On there current PE u would expect at least 30% growth.

As for Aspen, their PE is very high but will reduce once the future earnings of all these recent deals are factored in. I'm quite comfortable with it.

[HDB]

  those retail sales reports going to keep me awake all night worrying 

 

Delta you think you got worries!!

Imagine the Top 40 Alsi guys who shorted when dow when heavy into the red!! Its now going nicely into green and IG showing we up 231 points!! Now thats a sleepless night for you!!

 

Well i shorted MTN into auction at all time high at R195.96,,,and guess what? There results will be out tomorrow!! Now thats more pain for me too!!  Anyone got some sleeping tabs?

[HDB]

Yeah this is only the beginning of the pain.. I have SHP next target of R140.00 in sight next 3 months!!

 

Whl is a good solid higher end company but the whole sector will finally take it down with the rest!!!

 

Gamma read that trading statement again and let me know whats your feeling again about it.. Anybody else also like to comment??

In my views they not really that bad. Seems like last year they made a foreign exchange loss and this year a big gain. Trading wise, their results look bad but not really bad at all.. Heps before foreign exchange to be down 4 to 15% compared to last year!!

Problem is when you sit at so high p/e's market expects massive growth every year and if you fail once, you get punished bigtime..

 

Aspen next one in line for this...Maybe not next 2 years but definitely thereafter!! So Gamma if you say you bought aspen for 5 year view, i will think thrice!! 

[delta66]

Sa retails sales out tomorrow at 1pm...rather wait for that before committing..usually shows strong direction!!

long with SHP(16190)   those retail sales reports going to keep me awake all night worrying setting a tight stop in case it goes south

in hindsight should of waited before jumping in...we live, we learn.

[gamma]

Yeah this is only the beginning of the pain.. I have SHP next target of R140.00 in sight next 3 months!!

 

Whl is a good solid higher end company but the whole sector will finally take it down with the rest!!!

 

you could be right. lets see what shp results look like

[HDB]

That trading update is horrendous. I'd be very afraid if I was holding a SHP long right now.

 

(ps HDB, I'm still long WHL - for better or worse - but in my long term portfolio)

 

Yeah this is only the beginning of the pain.. I have SHP next target of R140.00 in sight next 3 months!!

 

Whl is a good solid higher end company but the whole sector will finally take it down with the rest!!!

Edited by HDB, 13 August 2013 - 05:05 PM.

[gamma]

Every chicken has his day 

 

That trading update is horrendous. I'd be very afraid if I was holding a SHP long right now.

 

(ps HDB, I'm still long WHL - for better or worse - but in my long term portfolio)

[gamma]

Chicken...

 

Every chicken has his day