320 replies to this topic

[Queen B]

MRF update this morning seems pretty positive!

[HendrikB]

Merafe Resources is starting to move as expected.  3rd Quarter Update due on

Thursday and all indications are positive. Opportunity for quick profit.  Target price 75c.

 

[michaessers]

Ive taken a small punt on Convergenet (CVN). Will wait and see if anything transpires

[HendrikB]

took a little punt on Merafe Resources yesterday.  Directors bought in.  

Could be a nice play come end of the year.

Edited by HendrikBruwer, 17 October 2013 - 12:00 PM.

[Jonny]

Time to update the smallcap bets thread again for the next 12 months guys so lets hear it!

 

Holding and my bets:

Afrocentric

Litha

Calgro

Mix Telematics

Taste

 

Sold my small Poynting punt recently, looking to add another smallcap, suggestions?

Got the same as above, - Afrocentric, + AdaptIT.
Picked up PAN on R2.21 with costs on speculative purposes.

Small caps on my watchlist:
OLG


 

[ThatBlackGuy]

In English?

[peanuts]

price pd in () . holding - aet(111) , ubu(46) , psv(19) , bik(10) , mri(15)

[ThatBlackGuy]

Santova anyone?

 

I believe its trading at less than 4 times EBITDA

 

and less than 6x P/E

 

am I missing something with these guys?

[Goliath]

Keith's analysis is probably spot on, but it doesn't make the slightest difference.  The market has the final say and its trading at R3.80.  Looks like its going nowhere slowly.  Needs a lift.

 

Jip, hopefully they'll do something with all the cash on hand(a nice acquisition perhaps?), and if Jasco could improve over the next 12 months.. maybe also a big reason why this one not climbing as it should!

[Saints]

don't own either but have put Interwaste and Ububele on my watch list. Both companies I think are on the right side of a turn around

 

 

 

[gamma]

Anyone else want to add a bit to the smallcaps scene? Currently sticking with my guns as per above.. looking to add to this a bit, suggestions?

 

 

 

Take a look at metrofile (I own this)

and I have on my small caps watchlist but do not own (yet)

Convergenet (won't buy until it moves out of penny stock category)

Torre 

Edited by gamma, 16 October 2013 - 06:23 AM.

[HendrikB]

Anyone else want to add a bit to the smallcaps scene? Currently sticking with my guns as per above.. looking to add to this a bit, suggestions?

 

Then recently afrocentric released some solid results but the share seems on downward path (due to additional shares being issued perhaps), still love this one due to its cash generation (same as Mix), thoughts on this one guys? Keith also made some interesting comments ons his blog:

 

Then, listed BEE investment vehicle, Afrocentric Investment Corporation (ACT) reported its FY 13 results late last week.

 

Afrocentric’s FY 13 results were largely in line with my expectations, with revenue rising 22% to R1.8bn (FY 12: R1.5bn), Operating profit jumping 29% and strong cash generation was experienced from the continued performance of Medscheme (Medscheme is the key underlying operation of the Group).

 

Afrocentric's EPS was flat at 60.75cps (FY 12: 61.55cps), largely in line with my expectation of 65.0cps (the miss in our forecast is largely attributable to Jasco’s MTEC impairment being equity accounted into Afrocentric’s results).

 

Far more importantly, the Group reported a “Normalized diluted HEPS” of 37.42cps (FY 12 equivalent: 30.63cps), showing an operational post-dilutionary growth of 22%. These normalized earnings retrospectively take into account dilution and various other items, hence making them much more reflective of the Group's performance and operations.

 

Perhaps also worth noting that the Group raised their dividend by 43% to 15cps (FY 12: 10.5cps).

 

A key development during the period was the finalization of Afrocentric's contingent share issue of c.108m ACT ordinary shares to the original vendors of the Afrocentric Health (formerly ‘Lethimvula’) acquisition. These shares are triggered by a profit warranty being met and are close to my original expectation of 114m contingent shares to be issued via this mechanism.

 

Afrocentric's share price has been sold down aggressively c.15% in the last six months on, what I suspect, is general market worry about the dilution coming from these contingent shares.

 

What a pity that the market has generally not done its homework on this counter...

 

I personally believe that the market is mispricing Afrocentric shares on the basis of the large overhang of new shares being issued (profit warranty and preference share redemption) that has created valuation uncertainty for most investors. My valuation has always taken these shares into account and, therefore, I am comfortable that this mispricing just creates a potential investment opportunity.

 

To this point, even after an ‘investment holding discount’ of c.13%, I arrive at a 12m TP to 588cps (previous 12m TP: 566cps) on an Exit PE of c.13.0x (Medscheme we value on a PE of 11.7x). This implies a very attractive 49% return on Afrocentric, even after taking into account all the dilutive shares.

 

Keith's analysis is probably spot on, but it doesn't make the slightest difference.  The market has the final say and its trading at R3.80.  Looks like its going nowhere slowly.  Needs a lift.

[Goliath]

Time to update the smallcap bets thread again for the next 12 months guys so lets hear it!

 

Holding and my bets:

Afrocentric

Litha

Calgro

Mix Telematics

Taste

 

Sold my small Poynting punt recently, looking to add another smallcap, suggestions?

 

Anyone else want to add a bit to the smallcaps scene? Currently sticking with my guns as per above.. looking to add to this a bit, suggestions?

 

Then recently afrocentric released some solid results but the share seems on downward path (due to additional shares being issued perhaps), still love this one due to its cash generation (same as Mix), thoughts on this one guys? Keith also made some interesting comments ons his blog:

 

Then, listed BEE investment vehicle, Afrocentric Investment Corporation (ACT) reported its FY 13 results late last week.

 

Afrocentric’s FY 13 results were largely in line with my expectations, with revenue rising 22% to R1.8bn (FY 12: R1.5bn), Operating profit jumping 29% and strong cash generation was experienced from the continued performance of Medscheme (Medscheme is the key underlying operation of the Group).

 

Afrocentric's EPS was flat at 60.75cps (FY 12: 61.55cps), largely in line with my expectation of 65.0cps (the miss in our forecast is largely attributable to Jasco’s MTEC impairment being equity accounted into Afrocentric’s results).

 

Far more importantly, the Group reported a “Normalized diluted HEPS” of 37.42cps (FY 12 equivalent: 30.63cps), showing an operational post-dilutionary growth of 22%. These normalized earnings retrospectively take into account dilution and various other items, hence making them much more reflective of the Group's performance and operations.

 

Perhaps also worth noting that the Group raised their dividend by 43% to 15cps (FY 12: 10.5cps).

 

A key development during the period was the finalization of Afrocentric's contingent share issue of c.108m ACT ordinary shares to the original vendors of the Afrocentric Health (formerly ‘Lethimvula’) acquisition. These shares are triggered by a profit warranty being met and are close to my original expectation of 114m contingent shares to be issued via this mechanism.

 

Afrocentric's share price has been sold down aggressively c.15% in the last six months on, what I suspect, is general market worry about the dilution coming from these contingent shares.

 

What a pity that the market has generally not done its homework on this counter...

 

I personally believe that the market is mispricing Afrocentric shares on the basis of the large overhang of new shares being issued (profit warranty and preference share redemption) that has created valuation uncertainty for most investors. My valuation has always taken these shares into account and, therefore, I am comfortable that this mispricing just creates a potential investment opportunity.

 

To this point, even after an ‘investment holding discount’ of c.13%, I arrive at a 12m TP to 588cps (previous 12m TP: 566cps) on an Exit PE of c.13.0x (Medscheme we value on a PE of 11.7x). This implies a very attractive 49% return on Afrocentric, even after taking into account all the dilutive shares.

[Goliath]

Morning!

 

You guys believe in POY still? I got in @ 90c a while back and made a bit  Wondering if I should hold/add more. Opinion?

I saw July 2012 it went to 170c and promptly went down to 60c again. Almost trading @ 170c now. Obviously, some good news is being expected, but PE of 19+-?!

Also took a small punt and got out with a profit, tough call.. if the acquisition falls through the price will go down as well, but if not it could run some more?

[Jonny]

Morning!

 

You guys believe in POY still? I got in @ 90c a while back and made a bit  Wondering if I should hold/add more. Opinion?

I saw July 2012 it went to 170c and promptly went down to 60c again. Almost trading @ 170c now. Obviously, some good news is being expected, but PE of 19+-?!

[gamma]

SENS today says Metrofile is expanding into Nigeria.  I've been holding for 2 years and

gobbled up some more today.Very confident and expecting a very good trading update

soon.  Target price R6.00 for year end.  They have a very good business model and 

after their recent success in Mozambique I'm sure they can crack Nigeria.

 

I'm a big fan as well. On this news I think I'll add some

[Goliath]

Exited DTA for a good 30% move after expenses

Haven't heard from you in a while Yusuf, nice one on DTA.. anyone you are eyeing at the moment? Still owe you a cold one in regards to your Finbond call

[yusufm]

Had my eye on Delta back in the day but decided to skip, at that time didn't look very exciting, maybe it has changed in last 12 months? Will have a look thanks yusuf!

Exited DTA for a good 30% move after expenses

[HendrikB]

SENS today says Metrofile is expanding into Nigeria.  I've been holding for 2 years and

gobbled up some more today.Very confident and expecting a very good trading update

soon.  Target price R6.00 for year end.  They have a very good business model and 

after their recent success in Mozambique I'm sure they can crack Nigeria.

[Goliath]

Time to update the smallcap bets thread again for the next 12 months guys so lets hear it!

 

Holding and my bets:

Afrocentric

Litha

Calgro

Mix Telematics

Taste

 

Sold my small Poynting punt recently, looking to add another smallcap, suggestions?