64 replies to this topic

[WINH]

http://www.moneyweb....rs-minor-stroke

Not good.. He might have to retire completely this time around. The industry he's in is very competitive, quite taxing on the health of all the people involved. Could be very bad for Cell C, in the short term at least. Good it's minor, and he's on the mend!

[gamma]

http://www.moneyweb....rs-minor-stroke

[WINH]

first ICASA's ruling now this...http://www.fin24.com...prices-20131009

If the ruling is in favor of Cell C, this could be the last nail on the coffin... Now i'm really confused, not sure what move to make...

[delta66]

first ICASA's ruling now this...http://www.fin24.com...prices-20131009

[soutie]

IRNEST KAPLAN: Ja, look, if one actually looks at the MTR cut, mobile termination rate cut, in the way in which it would actually affect – let’s take one player as an example, Vodacom for that matter – there are a couple of effects of this. It's not straightforward.
    The first one is that, as you pointed out, they will lose directly lose interconnect revenue. Vodacom interconnect revenue was around 10% of their service revenue last year to March, about R4.5 to R4.9bn I think. So they’ll probably lose half of that when the rate kicks in next year. But bear in mind that below, in their cost line, they’ve got an interconnect cost, which is for calls that go out to other operators. They will also benefit from that because the interconnect cost will fall as well. So that will to a large extent cancel out. 
    Now I think the relationship between MTN and Vodacom is pretty even in terms of calls going in and out, but I think where the issue is, is the relationship between, say, Vodacom and Telkom’s fixed-line operation. They are still net receivers, to my knowledge, of interconnect revenue and so with the mobile termination rate coming down next year, and the fixed-line rate staying the same, they are going to lose on that front. And I think that’s where it's going to hurt them.
    The other area is the relationship with Cell C of course, where the differential, as Craig and them pointed out in their article so eloquently, the differential is going to increase quite dramatically. So I think it's bad news all round for Vodacom and MTN, great news for the consumer, and great news for Cell C and Telkom Mobile.

 

 

Taken from a Moneyweb interview.  

[delta66]

don't think there's any reason to stress , it's still a good yield stock, whatever is lost will be made back.  the reason behind selling was my weighting(was slightly over 50%, with a large percentage of that being alpha/profit)

so..still in but reduced holdings to 21.86% of LT

 

[WINH]

had a rethink on their short term(6 month) prospects and sold at 114.10 bringing my weighting down to 20% ..think this is going to drag for some time.

 

Might be a good thing you did. As for me, i'm now throwing away all the analysis and stuff like that and i'm following my gut instinct... hahaha.  I know i might be left crying, but something just tells me to stick with my holding! And now there's this story about hackers targeting VOD, might cause further panic.

[delta66]

had a rethink on their short term(6 month) prospects and sold at 114.10 bringing my weighting down to 20% ..think this is going to drag for some time.

[gamma]

This is a structural change in the way they generate income.

While it is a couple yrs off markets are forward looking beasts.

The bean counters employed by fund managers are already beavering away to plot future earnings.

So when results come around I reckon the figure to stare at longer this time would be their forward PE.

For those who bought in only lately  WTF... 

For those of us who've just watched a healthy chunk of alpha feck out the window 

Not cool ICASA not cool, timing sucks 4pm on a Friday.   

Note to self w/end starts at 5pm on Friday's not 12pm

 

 

Government always F@#!!king with the markets. And VOD was on such a nice run.

Oh well. I'm holding.

[soutie]

This is a structural change in the way they generate income.

While it is a couple yrs off markets are forward looking beasts.

The bean counters employed by fund managers are already beavering away to plot future earnings.

So when results come around I reckon the figure to stare at longer this time would be their forward PE.

For those who bought in only lately  WTF... 

For those of us who've just watched a healthy chunk of alpha feck out the window 

Not cool ICASA not cool, timing sucks 4pm on a Friday.   

Note to self w/end starts at 5pm on Friday's not 12pm

[gamma]

I agree delta66, it's now too late to sell. I'll hold on and wait for it to recover after announcing it's results in Nov, which i expect will be good. VOD will claw back up after that, and then that would create an opportunity for me to sell for a higher profit.

 

 

The neotel deal should provide some impetus as well.

[WINH]

I agree delta66, it's now too late to sell. I'll hold on and wait for it to recover after announcing it's results in Nov, which i expect will be good. VOD will claw back up after that, and then that would create an opportunity for me to sell for a higher profit.

[delta66]

a real kick in the nuts today   to late to sell on this slide but have a huge profit buffer..nevertheless dissapointing

 

thanks ICASA!!

[delta66]

thanks ZH, the ICASA ruling is not good..coupled with opposition from South Africa’s Wireless Access Providers’ Association on the neotel buy-out

maybe its time for me to take profit off the table.

[gamma]

For the VOD Bulls...herewith the latest from ICASA (released at 16h30 this afternoon) on MTR's...in short this is very negative for VOD and far worse than market was expecting!

 

The SA telecoms regulator (Icasa) has published draft call termination regulations proposing further mobile termination rates cuts. The proposal is to reduce mobile terminations rates received by Vodacom and MTN by 50% to 20c per minute in March 2014 and to reduce by a further 25% per year to reach 10c by March 2016. The proposed cuts are 10c more than the reduction to 30c we expected for March 2014. Smaller players (Cell C and Telkom mobile) will be paid 95% more by MTN and Vodacom from the current 10% asymmetry. Local fixed line termination rates would remain unchanged at 12c per minute  

 

yep...doesnt sounds very good to me..

[Zero Hedge]

For the VOD Bulls...herewith the latest from ICASA (released at 16h30 this afternoon) on MTR's...in short this is very negative for VOD and far worse than market was expecting!

 

The SA telecoms regulator (Icasa) has published draft call termination regulations proposing further mobile termination rates cuts. The proposal is to reduce mobile terminations rates received by Vodacom and MTN by 50% to 20c per minute in March 2014 and to reduce by a further 25% per year to reach 10c by March 2016. The proposed cuts are 10c more than the reduction to 30c we expected for March 2014. Smaller players (Cell C and Telkom mobile) will be paid 95% more by MTN and Vodacom from the current 10% asymmetry. Local fixed line termination rates would remain unchanged at 12c per minute  

 

 

[delta66]

current article for those vested in VOD

 

http://www.moneyweb....s-business-reve

[delta66]

its way to much weighting on a single stock but not complaining holding quite a few others BTI,MTN,SAB,CFR,MDC,WHL and several smaller caps

[gamma]

exactly 50% of my LT port is in VOD ..at 130 i'm taking profit out

 

50%

That's quite a chunk?

What else you got in there?

[delta66]

exactly 50% of my LT port is in VOD ..at 130 i'm taking profit out