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#1 Alpha 101

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Posted 08 March 2017 - 01:46 PM

AXL cautionary - If they have got money for acquisitions, then surely they've got money for preference share dividends? 

There lies a small problemos - so what if the directors buy assets with the cash and these assets then go sour - or do not have enough income from the assets to pay the Pref dividends over time - then one coudl say that the directors acted recklessly !!!!   

 

I see some litigation coming on  :ph34r:

 

Remember - the acquisition has not happened yet !!    :wub:

 

I also saw that of the R1.8bn cash on the consolidated BS of Stangen - only R300m is in AXL - teh other R1.5bn is still in STANGEN - so they can only spend R300m !!

They also cannot issue shares - shareholders cleverly voted against this at the AGM  :)


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#2 SoleTrader

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Posted 08 March 2017 - 09:43 AM

AXL cautionary - If they have got money for acquisitions, then surely they've got money for preference share dividends? 


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#3 HighRiskGain

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Posted 02 March 2017 - 11:30 AM

Remember - You make the option to invest in a company . Even the professionals have tough times explaining why their portfolio is doing poor . Been on it for 2 years and the major loss i occur was Lonmin (live and learn) - but there is some companies that shine in the silver lining . 2016 was the worst so don't expect traders to be happy wasting money away - They are more cautious in their investments these days ...well some  :D


Edited by HighRiskGain, 02 March 2017 - 11:31 AM.

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#4 HighRiskGain

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Posted 02 March 2017 - 11:24 AM

A gamble - I just traded for high volumes  

01/03/2017 1,940,484  

28/02/2017 5,660,999  

27/02/2017 8,220,502  

24/02/2017 7,611,470  

23/02/2017 4,518,602  

22/02/2017 66,515,148  

21/02/2017 12,146,367

20/02/2017 45,473,407


Edited by HighRiskGain, 02 March 2017 - 11:25 AM.

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#5 HighRiskGain

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Posted 02 March 2017 - 11:23 AM

Alpha101 is right - even though he/she likes "!!!!" 

 

For it being 72 cent just the other day : that is just huge volume trade 

 

For future : The plans is still being made 

A gamble - I just traded for high volumes  


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#6 HighRiskGain

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Posted 02 March 2017 - 11:22 AM

So many 'Einsteins' and Doomsayers in this forum, they even said these shares are worth 0c yet they reached 72c the other day...

Alpha101 is right - even though he/she likes "!!!!" 

 

For it being 72 cent just the other day : that is just huge volume trade 

 

For future : The plans is still being made 


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#7 Mgabi

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Posted 02 March 2017 - 08:55 AM

So many 'Einsteins' and Doomsayers in this forum, they even said these shares are worth 0c yet they reached 72c the other day...

 


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#8 HighRiskGain

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 01:25 PM

Thanks Highriskgain  :)

At least now we know your source - unfortunately those calculations done by sharedata or most brokers are never accurate when a company goes through major change ! - and are best used as proxies before doing your own work. I for one will never buy/sell without checking allSENS announcements - in case like this case - you miss something when you are on holiday or similar !

 

You always have to do your own work - hopefully we all learnt something today - the numbers I provided for you below are the latest decalendarised numbers using latest information available

 

i.e. a PE of around 10x and a PB of around 1.5x

 

Now that you have new information - you might want to reassess your positioning

Not sure as i sold out on 70cent - previous post


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#9 galton

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 12:07 PM

Thanks Highriskgain  :)

At least now we know your source - unfortunately those calculations done by sharedata or most brokers are never accurate when a company goes through major change ! - and are best used as proxies before doing your own work. I for one will never buy/sell without checking allSENS announcements - in case like this case - you miss something when you are on holiday or similar !

 

You always have to do your own work - hopefully we all learnt something today - the numbers I provided for you below are the latest decalendarised numbers using latest information available

 

i.e. a PE of around 10x and a PB of around 1.5x

 

Now that you have new information - you might want to reassess your positioning

 

 

Spot on Alpha 101.


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#10 Alpha 101

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:22 AM

Thanks Highriskgain  :)

At least now we know your source - unfortunately those calculations done by sharedata or most brokers are never accurate when a company goes through major change ! - and are best used as proxies before doing your own work. I for one will never buy/sell without checking allSENS announcements - in case like this case - you miss something when you are on holiday or similar !

 

You always have to do your own work - hopefully we all learnt something today - the numbers I provided for you below are the latest decalendarised numbers using latest information available

 

i.e. a PE of around 10x and a PB of around 1.5x

 

Now that you have new information - you might want to reassess your positioning

 

 


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#11 Fleetstroke1

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:18 AM

I agree or disagree with any one. I bought at 50 they went bust, they went out of suspension I got the same number at 47 I sold at 59. That was not a bad deal, whish I had deep pockets to be talking millions of shares.... the share price is what we trading it for less broker charges.... A win is a win, analysis are for value investors. THEY HOLDING THIS SHARE BELOW 60. I hope it would be over 100 by yesterday. So I have moved on with a few bobs, I will look for something else. What about Imbalie (ILE)? Just a thought. 


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#12 HighRiskGain

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 09:55 AM

Agree with you galton - :)

 

Where does a PE of 1.7x come from highriskgain :ph34r:

 

(What rubbish) I am tired of people on this forum throwing out stupid numbers

The company sens 31 January 2017 says the following : HEPS will be AT LEAST 26.55c lower than the 29.5c reported to  March 2016.

 

That means the HEPS for 6 months will be a maximum of 2.95c (annualised close to 6c)

Maths 101 would thus give you a PE of 58c/6c = 9.7x

 

This is the only guidance we have on PE - that is legally obtainable !!!

 

 

 

On a PB basis you talk about a PB of 0.87 

 

The latest reported NAV is 37.5c (SEP 2016) - theoretically you could add the 3c above and one would get a decalendarised current NAV of around 40c.

 

At 58c - means you are trading at 58/40 at a PB of 1.45x

 

(Put differently you are paying a 45% premium to cash !!! - good luck with your investment - as for the share to stay at 58c means that the company has to replace cash with assets that are worth 45% more than they paid for them on day 1 !!!!!

 

Hey HighRiskGain, would you mind sharing with us how you get to earnings of 33cps and NAV of 67cps?

http://www.sharedata...uote.aspx?c=AXL


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#13 Alpha 101

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 09:49 AM

Agree with you galton - :)

 

Where does a PE of 1.7x come from highriskgain :ph34r: 

 

(What rubbish) I am tired of people on this forum throwing out stupid numbers

The company sens 31 January 2017 says the following : HEPS will be AT LEAST 26.55c lower than the 29.5c reported to  March 2016.

 

That means the HEPS for 6 months will be a maximum of 2.95c (annualised close to 6c)

Maths 101 would thus give you a PE of 58c/6c = 9.7x

 

This is the only guidance we have on PE - that is legally obtainable !!!

 

 

 

On a PB basis you talk about a PB of 0.87 

 

The latest reported NAV is 37.5c (SEP 2016) - theoretically you could add the 3c above and one would get a decalendarised current NAV of around 40c.

 

At 58c - means you are trading at 58/40 at a PB of 1.45x

 

(Put differently you are paying a 45% premium to cash !!! - good luck with your investment - as for the share to stay at 58c means that the company has to replace cash with assets that are worth 45% more than they paid for them on day 1 !!!!!

 

 

 

 

 


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#14 galton

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 08:32 AM

 P/E (Price/Earnings) 1.74  Price/NAV 0.87

 

 

Hey HighRiskGain, would you mind sharing with us how you get to earnings of 33cps and NAV of 67cps?


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#15 HighRiskGain

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Posted 28 February 2017 - 02:04 PM

Confused  !!!

The NAV was last reported at 37.5c 

If anything it is in a short squeeze and should gravitate back to 40c

 

I might be wrong though ..............

 P/E (Price/Earnings) 1.74  Price/NAV 0.87
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#16 Alpha 101

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Posted 24 February 2017 - 07:18 PM

Soletrader - no they cannot due a rights issue - at the AGM  in November it was voted down (75% against a rights issue)

 

Magnet - you cannot write the Prefs to Zero - it will create Legal Precedent in South Africa - and will have huge ramifications for all other Preference Share minority rights in South Africa.

 

So I am afraid you are stuck with a Nominal Preference Share structure (hybrid equity) of R1.13 billion.

 

Remember the shareholder base has now changed with 51% new shareholders - I doubt they are buying shares for a new NAV play (one without an experienced board or strategy or prospectus ) - Remember when you buy on new prspectus you pay 1 x NAV not 1.5x NAV  - me thinks these share price moves are for a veto vote of 25% and value for rightful value for Prefs. 


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#17 SoleTrader

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Posted 24 February 2017 - 07:00 PM

Rumour that AXL going to do a R500m to R1bn rights issue to make some very large acquisitions. As I said, rumour, don't quote me! As long as management pays my pref dividend, the stock can go to 100c for all I care
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#18 HighRiskGain

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Posted 24 February 2017 - 05:16 PM

Sleekone - you get nothing because you did not recapitalise it - it was recapitalised by the Big 5 banks and PIC @ R10 billion - yes they put R10 bn in 

 

Highrisknogain - ABL is now AXL - they did a name change - that is all - the results to SEP 2016 are AXL's (African Phoenix) - and the NAV of African Phoenix at 30 Sep 2016 is 37.5c (cash backed)

 

 Go figure - why would you want to pay 60c for 37c 

 

OK 

 

I bought in at first 52 cent sold for 70 - I know its short , check my name if i wanted to do long term , i will let you know :) 


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#19 Magnet

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Posted 24 February 2017 - 03:27 PM

Sleekone - you get nothing because you did not recapitalise it - it was recapitalised by the Big 5 banks and PIC @ R10 billion - yes they put R10 bn in 

 

Highrisknogain - ABL is now AXL - they did a name change - that is all - the results to SEP 2016 are AXL's (African Phoenix) - and the NAV of African Phoenix at 30 Sep 2016 is 37.5c (cash backed)

 

 Go figure - why would you want to pay 60c for 37c 

 

It is only worth 37 if full value is attributed to the preference shares.  Zero value to prefs and NAV would be around R1.10.  Currently Prefs trading at a 3rd of that value so 60c is reasonable.


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#20 Fleetstroke1

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Posted 24 February 2017 - 03:24 PM

Sleekone - you get nothing because you did not recapitalise it - it was recapitalised by the Big 5 banks and PIC @ R10 billion - yes they put R10 bn in 

 

Highrisknogain - ABL is now AXL - they did a name change - that is all - the results to SEP 2016 are AXL's (African Phoenix) - and the NAV of African Phoenix at 30 Sep 2016 is 37.5c (cash backed)

 

 Go figure - why would you want to pay 60c for 37c 

 

I hear you well Alpha 101, My point is before the R10 bn of the big guns shareholders did put their money into the entity. To me this is tantamount to Highjacking. The entity is revived, yes but they cannot alone enjoy a free ride. This is bad precedent. At least some money should be given to AXL who in turn can grow the business and give some sort of dividend to ordinary shareholders. We cannot just lose like this. All listed companies will use this precedent in future when they are in the red. Where is our recourse on this one.  


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