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#1 Alpha 101

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Posted 12 April 2017 - 01:12 PM

I see AXL has just dropped the cautionary - no more deal on the go  

 

Interesting this new management team promised to let shareholders know what their strategy is before the end of Quarter 1 - well 31 March was 12 days ago 

 

I cannot foresee them doing many deals better than buying back their Preference Shares (AXLP) - Nominal of R86 - they can pick them up at R34 - that is a book profit of 152% and less future dividends to pay.

 

[ For R90m odd they can buy back 20% of the Prefs and make R140m profit    !!!!!!   ] 

 

 

 


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#2 Alpha 101

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Posted 12 April 2017 - 01:12 PM

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Edited by Alpha 101, 12 April 2017 - 01:14 PM.

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#3 Alpha 101

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Posted 12 April 2017 - 01:12 PM

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Edited by Alpha 101, 12 April 2017 - 01:13 PM.

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#4 Alpha 101

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Posted 08 March 2017 - 01:46 PM

AXL cautionary - If they have got money for acquisitions, then surely they've got money for preference share dividends? 

There lies a small problemos - so what if the directors buy assets with the cash and these assets then go sour - or do not have enough income from the assets to pay the Pref dividends over time - then one coudl say that the directors acted recklessly !!!!   

 

I see some litigation coming on  :ph34r:

 

Remember - the acquisition has not happened yet !!    :wub:

 

I also saw that of the R1.8bn cash on the consolidated BS of Stangen - only R300m is in AXL - teh other R1.5bn is still in STANGEN - so they can only spend R300m !!

They also cannot issue shares - shareholders cleverly voted against this at the AGM  :)


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#5 SoleTrader

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Posted 08 March 2017 - 09:43 AM

AXL cautionary - If they have got money for acquisitions, then surely they've got money for preference share dividends? 


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#6 HighRiskGain

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Posted 02 March 2017 - 11:30 AM

Remember - You make the option to invest in a company . Even the professionals have tough times explaining why their portfolio is doing poor . Been on it for 2 years and the major loss i occur was Lonmin (live and learn) - but there is some companies that shine in the silver lining . 2016 was the worst so don't expect traders to be happy wasting money away - They are more cautious in their investments these days ...well some  :D


Edited by HighRiskGain, 02 March 2017 - 11:31 AM.

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#7 HighRiskGain

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Posted 02 March 2017 - 11:24 AM

A gamble - I just traded for high volumes  

01/03/2017 1,940,484  

28/02/2017 5,660,999  

27/02/2017 8,220,502  

24/02/2017 7,611,470  

23/02/2017 4,518,602  

22/02/2017 66,515,148  

21/02/2017 12,146,367

20/02/2017 45,473,407


Edited by HighRiskGain, 02 March 2017 - 11:25 AM.

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#8 HighRiskGain

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Posted 02 March 2017 - 11:23 AM

Alpha101 is right - even though he/she likes "!!!!" 

 

For it being 72 cent just the other day : that is just huge volume trade 

 

For future : The plans is still being made 

A gamble - I just traded for high volumes  


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#9 HighRiskGain

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Posted 02 March 2017 - 11:22 AM

So many 'Einsteins' and Doomsayers in this forum, they even said these shares are worth 0c yet they reached 72c the other day...

Alpha101 is right - even though he/she likes "!!!!" 

 

For it being 72 cent just the other day : that is just huge volume trade 

 

For future : The plans is still being made 


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#10 Mgabi

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Posted 02 March 2017 - 08:55 AM

So many 'Einsteins' and Doomsayers in this forum, they even said these shares are worth 0c yet they reached 72c the other day...

 


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#11 HighRiskGain

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 01:25 PM

Thanks Highriskgain  :)

At least now we know your source - unfortunately those calculations done by sharedata or most brokers are never accurate when a company goes through major change ! - and are best used as proxies before doing your own work. I for one will never buy/sell without checking allSENS announcements - in case like this case - you miss something when you are on holiday or similar !

 

You always have to do your own work - hopefully we all learnt something today - the numbers I provided for you below are the latest decalendarised numbers using latest information available

 

i.e. a PE of around 10x and a PB of around 1.5x

 

Now that you have new information - you might want to reassess your positioning

Not sure as i sold out on 70cent - previous post


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#12 galton

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 12:07 PM

Thanks Highriskgain  :)

At least now we know your source - unfortunately those calculations done by sharedata or most brokers are never accurate when a company goes through major change ! - and are best used as proxies before doing your own work. I for one will never buy/sell without checking allSENS announcements - in case like this case - you miss something when you are on holiday or similar !

 

You always have to do your own work - hopefully we all learnt something today - the numbers I provided for you below are the latest decalendarised numbers using latest information available

 

i.e. a PE of around 10x and a PB of around 1.5x

 

Now that you have new information - you might want to reassess your positioning

 

 

Spot on Alpha 101.


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#13 Alpha 101

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:22 AM

Thanks Highriskgain  :)

At least now we know your source - unfortunately those calculations done by sharedata or most brokers are never accurate when a company goes through major change ! - and are best used as proxies before doing your own work. I for one will never buy/sell without checking allSENS announcements - in case like this case - you miss something when you are on holiday or similar !

 

You always have to do your own work - hopefully we all learnt something today - the numbers I provided for you below are the latest decalendarised numbers using latest information available

 

i.e. a PE of around 10x and a PB of around 1.5x

 

Now that you have new information - you might want to reassess your positioning

 

 


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#14 Fleetstroke1

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 11:18 AM

I agree or disagree with any one. I bought at 50 they went bust, they went out of suspension I got the same number at 47 I sold at 59. That was not a bad deal, whish I had deep pockets to be talking millions of shares.... the share price is what we trading it for less broker charges.... A win is a win, analysis are for value investors. THEY HOLDING THIS SHARE BELOW 60. I hope it would be over 100 by yesterday. So I have moved on with a few bobs, I will look for something else. What about Imbalie (ILE)? Just a thought. 


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#15 HighRiskGain

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 09:55 AM

Agree with you galton - :)

 

Where does a PE of 1.7x come from highriskgain :ph34r:

 

(What rubbish) I am tired of people on this forum throwing out stupid numbers

The company sens 31 January 2017 says the following : HEPS will be AT LEAST 26.55c lower than the 29.5c reported to  March 2016.

 

That means the HEPS for 6 months will be a maximum of 2.95c (annualised close to 6c)

Maths 101 would thus give you a PE of 58c/6c = 9.7x

 

This is the only guidance we have on PE - that is legally obtainable !!!

 

 

 

On a PB basis you talk about a PB of 0.87 

 

The latest reported NAV is 37.5c (SEP 2016) - theoretically you could add the 3c above and one would get a decalendarised current NAV of around 40c.

 

At 58c - means you are trading at 58/40 at a PB of 1.45x

 

(Put differently you are paying a 45% premium to cash !!! - good luck with your investment - as for the share to stay at 58c means that the company has to replace cash with assets that are worth 45% more than they paid for them on day 1 !!!!!

 

Hey HighRiskGain, would you mind sharing with us how you get to earnings of 33cps and NAV of 67cps?

http://www.sharedata...uote.aspx?c=AXL


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#16 Alpha 101

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 09:49 AM

Agree with you galton - :)

 

Where does a PE of 1.7x come from highriskgain :ph34r: 

 

(What rubbish) I am tired of people on this forum throwing out stupid numbers

The company sens 31 January 2017 says the following : HEPS will be AT LEAST 26.55c lower than the 29.5c reported to  March 2016.

 

That means the HEPS for 6 months will be a maximum of 2.95c (annualised close to 6c)

Maths 101 would thus give you a PE of 58c/6c = 9.7x

 

This is the only guidance we have on PE - that is legally obtainable !!!

 

 

 

On a PB basis you talk about a PB of 0.87 

 

The latest reported NAV is 37.5c (SEP 2016) - theoretically you could add the 3c above and one would get a decalendarised current NAV of around 40c.

 

At 58c - means you are trading at 58/40 at a PB of 1.45x

 

(Put differently you are paying a 45% premium to cash !!! - good luck with your investment - as for the share to stay at 58c means that the company has to replace cash with assets that are worth 45% more than they paid for them on day 1 !!!!!

 

 

 

 

 


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#17 galton

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 08:32 AM

 P/E (Price/Earnings) 1.74  Price/NAV 0.87

 

 

Hey HighRiskGain, would you mind sharing with us how you get to earnings of 33cps and NAV of 67cps?


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#18 HighRiskGain

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Posted 28 February 2017 - 02:04 PM

Confused  !!!

The NAV was last reported at 37.5c 

If anything it is in a short squeeze and should gravitate back to 40c

 

I might be wrong though ..............

 P/E (Price/Earnings) 1.74  Price/NAV 0.87
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#19 Alpha 101

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Posted 24 February 2017 - 07:18 PM

Soletrader - no they cannot due a rights issue - at the AGM  in November it was voted down (75% against a rights issue)

 

Magnet - you cannot write the Prefs to Zero - it will create Legal Precedent in South Africa - and will have huge ramifications for all other Preference Share minority rights in South Africa.

 

So I am afraid you are stuck with a Nominal Preference Share structure (hybrid equity) of R1.13 billion.

 

Remember the shareholder base has now changed with 51% new shareholders - I doubt they are buying shares for a new NAV play (one without an experienced board or strategy or prospectus ) - Remember when you buy on new prspectus you pay 1 x NAV not 1.5x NAV  - me thinks these share price moves are for a veto vote of 25% and value for rightful value for Prefs. 


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#20 SoleTrader

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Posted 24 February 2017 - 07:00 PM

Rumour that AXL going to do a R500m to R1bn rights issue to make some very large acquisitions. As I said, rumour, don't quote me! As long as management pays my pref dividend, the stock can go to 100c for all I care
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