501 replies to this topic

[Moonraker]

 The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will hold a press conference today (Sunday, 10 August) at 16:00 to announce measures to be taken with regard to African Bank Limited.

The press conference will take place at the SARB Conference Centre in Pretoria.     

[Shi]

I was thinking earlier today of the PIC or CML "bailing" ABIL out. BUT to do this they would probably do a private equity deal of sorts for example buy the shares they don't own for 10c and take it private effectively owning 100% of ABIL.

 

It would not be worth the money that they put in to save ABIL otherwise as it would not be worth the while for them otherwise.

 

[Magnet]

there might be some sort of hype next week before it tumbles again. When this does happen get out<br /><br />Sent from my GT-I9500 using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app<br /><br />

[longterm413]

I bought at R2.50, it's now sitting at 31cents. Any advice on whether I should cut my losses or wait on it?

I'm certainly not looking to make anything at all, but would like to salvage as much as I can.

[longterm413]

I bought at R2.50, it's now sitting at 31cents. Any advice on whether I should cut my losses or wait on it?

[stoffels]

Agreed... If any help does come, it will have to come from the PIC and CML... And I can't see CML forking out any more.

No, I think the equity holders will play hard ball, and compared to what they have already lost they will right off the small amount they have left rather than throw in more good money after bad. 

 

I think the focus should rather be on what the bond holders will do. Many of them held abil paper in money market funds which they cant afford to realize a loss in these funds. They will make compromises to try and avoid as bigger haircut as possible. 

The issue at the moment is that all there funding has dried up and everyone has lost confidence - both equity and bond holders - to put up more money. 

 

Like HBD mentioned, ABIL is not a deposit taking institution. This means they can't suffer from a run on the bank, like any other bank in their position would. They had matched liability and funding but because of the lack of confidence they can't roll any of the debt any more and the funding dries up and they find themselves in the current position they are.

 

What is needed is a big balance sheet backing this business - think OML - if they had to pick up the equity (at basically zero) they wouldn't even need to fill the R8bn hole themselves. Watch what debt holders will do if they can pick up high yielding paper that is basically backed by OML credit risk. There funding issue would be sorted. Abil has the widest footprint which could be value to the right player.

     

Or alternatively someone with a high risk appetite - think Christo Wiese - could pick up the business for nothing, or alternatively could even be rolled into something like Shoprite. I think if someone had the balls and the ability to bring back confidence to this business (read funding) they could have a very profitable turn around in 3-5 years. 

 

The focus should be on what sort of agreement the bond holders can come to with a possible equity player to avoid taking the haircuts that are coming there way.

[Magnet]

Agreed. But A state takeover will mean a complete restructure of the business and service offerings. Abil as we currently know it will no longer exist that is for sure. Will have to wait and see.<br /><br />Goliath - http://www.salabourn...-save-abil.html <br /><br />

[longterm413]

Please remember ABIL is not a deposit taking institution....So no Reserve bank or Govt interference will come in at all!!

Agreed... If any help does come, it will have to come from the PIC and CML... And I can't see CML forking out any more.

[HDB]

Please remember ABIL is not a deposit taking institution....So no Reserve bank or Govt interference will come in at all!!

[Goliath]

News just in it Looks like abil got Numsa on their side now as well. Shoulda bought more on Friday....<br /><br />Sent from my GT-I9500 using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

Link?

[Magnet]

News just in it Looks like abil got Numsa on their side now as well. Shoulda bought more on Friday....<br /><br />Sent from my GT-I9500 using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[Goliath]

Agree.

More than likely but couldnt resist taking a small punt

[gamma]

Agree.

this one is worth ZERO, finish and klaar!! stay away or you will get burnt!!

[gamma]

Agree.

this one is worth ZERO, finish and klaar!! stay away or you will get burnt!!

[Magnet]

Ok cool lets hope you are correct! Sorry about the spam guys. Something seriously wrong with sharechat today.<br /><br />Sent from my GT-I9500 using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app<br /><br />

[McEdama]

McEdama.... care to share? I am averaging 58c and feeling very depressed! Haha

Sent from my GT-I9500 using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

Magnet, you'll be smiling in no time believe me... Unfortunately I can't share more here...we'll chat again Thursday the latest...

[McEdama]

McEdama.... care to share? I am averaging 58c and feeling very depressed! Haha

Sent from my GT-I9500 using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

Magnet, you be smiling in no time believe me... Unfortunately I can't share more here...we'll chat again Thursday the latest...

[Magnet]

McEdama.... care to share? I am averaging 58c and feeling very depressed! Haha<br /><br />Sent from my GT-I9500 using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app<br /><br />

[McEdama]

Who ever bought ABIL sub R1.00 will make at least 100% profit by the very latest close of trading next week Thursday 14/08/14...the've been some interesting development....thank me later

[McEdama]

..<br />

Edited by McEdama, 08 August 2014 - 06:07 PM.