69 replies to this topic

[gamma]

Good call to you guys who got in. Was worth a punt and its paid off handsomely.

 

I still don't rate this company but hey, the market knows better!

[Mr.Balls]

just hit 200c and the momentum still seems strong

Running too strong...

[McEdama]

Missed out on this one, my order @ 1.24 never went through..no.

[Shi]

just hit 200c and the momentum still seems strong

[Shi]

A lot on the share price increase, but some useful info and views on AVL

 

http://www.moneyweb....0-in-first-week

 

http://www.bdlive.co...-advance-health

Edited by Shi, 04 May 2014 - 10:02 PM.

[Shi]

150c and still going

[Goliath]

Guys, don't get too emotional. IPOs are volatile in the first few days of trading.

Give it 1 month for a better idea as to where its going.

For you guys that are in I hope its up!

 

Cheers

 

Yep, I'll look at it again when it has settled down.. perhaps around the R1 mark again?

[gamma]

Guys, don't get too emotional. IPOs are volatile in the first few days of trading.

Give it 1 month for a better idea as to where its going.

For you guys that are in I hope its up!

 

Cheers

[Mr.Balls]

Oppened at 1.25, now trading at 1.39, volume +8 million! i'ts a wait and see game for now for me ...  any views?

44% in one day not too shabby! holding mine for the long term

[Goliath]

Oppened at 1.25, now trading at 1.39, volume +8 million! i'ts a wait and see game for now for me ...  any views?

 

Same here

[McEdama]

RESULTS OF OFFER AND LISTING OF ADVANCED HEALTH - SENS

http://www.sharenet....23163200&seq=25

 

Oppened at 1.25, now trading at 1.39, volume +8 million! i'ts a wait and see game for now for me ...  any views?

[Shi]

RESULTS OF OFFER AND LISTING OF ADVANCED HEALTH - SENS

http://www.sharenet....23163200&seq=25

Edited by Shi, 23 April 2014 - 05:14 PM.

[TheLittleGuy]

Interesting article looking at valuations in ASC (Ambulatory surgery centers) sector in the US. Bear in mind that the mkt in the US is a lot more developed than that in SA, so higher multiples are justified. Nevertheless it is an indication on what the market is prepared to pay for Day surgery facilities.

 

 http://www.beckersas...appraisers.html

 

On my rough estimates @100c/shr AVL will trade @ 3.56x EV/Ebitda. If the SA day surgery mkt develops there certainly is a lot of upside potential.

 

[TheLittleGuy]

They say everyone gets shares, so do they allocate it then by 80/217 = 36% that you offered? I offered 20,000 shares so then I get 7373?

That is what they say ... Sometimes they try to apply a bigger discount to indications that are at the larger end. The thought process being that indications at the top end have been exaggerated while those at the lower end are more real indications. What I have learnt is never count on anything until the shares are in your trading account. 

[Mr.Balls]

sorry wrong link 

 

http://www.moneyweb....-oversubscribed

They say everyone gets shares, so do they allocate it then by 80/217 = 36% that you offered? I offered 20,000 shares so then I get 7373?

[TheLittleGuy]

Advanced Health Limited’s (AVL) initial public offer (IPO) of 80 million shares at R1 each has attracted applications for nearly 217 million shares, the firm announced on Tuesday.

 

http://mny.co.za/54i1

sorry wrong link 

 

http://www.moneyweb....-oversubscribed

[TheLittleGuy]

Advanced Health Limited’s (AVL) initial public offer (IPO) of 80 million shares at R1 each has attracted applications for nearly 217 million shares, the firm announced on Tuesday.

 

http://mny.co.za/54i1

[TheLittleGuy]

Good analysis although you may want to spend a bit of time doing a bit more risk analysis. The risks to this business are substantial.

Firstly, regulatory risk - as you know the private sector is under scrutiny and prices could soon be regulated (read WILL be regulate). Now this as you say could well play into the hands of Advanced Health. Thing is though, in the words of Warren Buffet, you need a moat and I don't see how these guys will compete against the like of the big groups. Surely if the trend begins to push patients from hospitals into day units the big boys are not going to sit around and watch it happen? If this market is viable, mark my words, you will se aggressive expansion of the big hospital groups into it. Advanced Health could get bought out if they have enough mass by then, or they will be relegated to minor leagues.

 

My question is, if they are so brilliant at what they do, why is it they have only 2-3 clinics in Oz?

 

ps, to be honest, I like this sector and possible macrotrend. I've seen it personally in other parts of the world and SA is slow to the crease however I'm not convinced this company is the right one to take advantage of it.

 

Just my 2c..

All good points Gamma and definitely worth keeping in mind. Don't get me wrong nothing comes without risk and I would encourage everyone to do their own research when considering a potential investment

 

Regarding competition from the big 3 hospital players, As you eluded to they are under intense scrutiny from the regulators given their oligopoly. Some believe they may be forced to sell off some of their hospitals to increase competition. With this in mind they may find it difficult to get licenses for new facilities, which will give other other Day Clinic operators some cushion. But I don't for one minute believe they will sit on the side lines. Lucky the market for day clinics is in its nascent stages so lots of opportunity for growth exists. The nice thing about AVL is that they are small enough, at the moment, not to be a big threat to the big 3 and fly under the radar while still making a meaningful impact to their operations and income statement. I don't believe that AVL has aspirations of taking over the Day Clinic universe, moving from 5 facilities to 15 (if successful) is decent growth though... baby steps.

 

Remember the drive to Day clinics is essentially driven by cost.

 

Mgmt succession in a big concern, the CEO & CFO will probably step down in 3 years once their share incentives vest. But many a road is paved with the grave stones of indispensable men....

 

For me execution is the biggest risk!

[Geelstert]

Very good points Gamma,

It gave me an entire different outlook over all the hype on this share to be listed soon

[gamma]

If Advanced Health (AVL) can execute to plan they look set to significantly benefit from a potential secular shift in the healthcare industry.  In an attempt to reduce costs the Health Insurance providers (Discovery Health leading the charge) are incentivizing specialist to perform more surgeries at day clinics. South Africa is only has 45 day clinics vs 245 private hospitals so there is plenty of room for growth.

 

AVL is raising R100mln to triple the number of Day clinics they operate. If mgmt can execute this stock could be a 5 bagger over the net 5 years.

 

Nevertheless the 100c/shr listing price looks reasonable. 

 

Here are some of my thoughts and numbers http://wp.me/p3RKee-6x . 

 

 

Good analysis although you may want to spend a bit of time doing a bit more risk analysis. The risks to this business are substantial.

Firstly, regulatory risk - as you know the private sector is under scrutiny and prices could soon be regulated (read WILL be regulate). Now this as you say could well play into the hands of Advanced Health. Thing is though, in the words of Warren Buffet, you need a moat and I don't see how these guys will compete against the like of the big groups. Surely if the trend begins to push patients from hospitals into day units the big boys are not going to sit around and watch it happen? If this market is viable, mark my words, you will se aggressive expansion of the big hospital groups into it. Advanced Health could get bought out if they have enough mass by then, or they will be relegated to minor leagues.

 

My question is, if they are so brilliant at what they do, why is it they have only 2-3 clinics in Oz?

 

ps, to be honest, I like this sector and possible macrotrend. I've seen it personally in other parts of the world and SA is slow to the crease however I'm not convinced this company is the right one to take advantage of it.

 

Just my 2c..