Jump to content


Photo
- - - - -

Advanced Health


  • Please log in to reply
69 replies to this topic

#41 gamma

gamma

    Sage

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,470 posts
  • LocationEverywhere

Posted 13 May 2014 - 03:51 PM

Good call to you guys who got in. Was worth a punt and its paid off handsomely.

 

I still don't rate this company but hey, the market knows better!


  • 0
Do not try and bend the market. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. Then you'll see, that it is not the market that bends, it is only yourself.

#42 Mr.Balls

Mr.Balls

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 103 posts

Posted 13 May 2014 - 12:05 PM

just hit 200c and the momentum still seems strong :wub:

Running too strong...


  • 0

#43 McEdama

McEdama

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 137 posts
  • LocationJohannesburg (RSA)

Posted 13 May 2014 - 11:51 AM

Missed out on this one, my order @ 1.24 never went through..no.
  • 0

#44 Shi

Shi

    Master

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 887 posts
  • LocationCape Town

Posted 13 May 2014 - 09:55 AM

just hit 200c and the momentum still seems strong :wub:


  • 0
“One day Alice came to a fork in the road and saw a Cheshire cat in a tree. Which road do I take? she asked. Where do you want to go? was his response. I don't know, Alice answered. Then, said the cat, it doesn't matter.” - Lewis Carroll

#45 Shi

Shi

    Master

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 887 posts
  • LocationCape Town

Posted 04 May 2014 - 10:00 PM

A lot on the share price increase, but some useful info and views on AVL

 

http://www.moneyweb....0-in-first-week

 

http://www.bdlive.co...-advance-health


Edited by Shi, 04 May 2014 - 10:02 PM.

  • 0
“One day Alice came to a fork in the road and saw a Cheshire cat in a tree. Which road do I take? she asked. Where do you want to go? was his response. I don't know, Alice answered. Then, said the cat, it doesn't matter.” - Lewis Carroll

#46 Shi

Shi

    Master

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 887 posts
  • LocationCape Town

Posted 29 April 2014 - 09:29 AM

150c and still going :D


  • 0
“One day Alice came to a fork in the road and saw a Cheshire cat in a tree. Which road do I take? she asked. Where do you want to go? was his response. I don't know, Alice answered. Then, said the cat, it doesn't matter.” - Lewis Carroll

#47 Goliath

Goliath

    Master

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 799 posts

Posted 27 April 2014 - 11:58 AM

Guys, don't get too emotional. IPOs are volatile in the first few days of trading.

Give it 1 month for a better idea as to where its going.

For you guys that are in I hope its up!

 

Cheers

 

Yep, I'll look at it again when it has settled down.. perhaps around the R1 mark again?


  • 0
Never underestimate the potential for human stupidity when wealth and power are at stake!

#48 gamma

gamma

    Sage

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,470 posts
  • LocationEverywhere

Posted 25 April 2014 - 03:27 PM

Guys, don't get too emotional. IPOs are volatile in the first few days of trading.

Give it 1 month for a better idea as to where its going.

For you guys that are in I hope its up!

 

Cheers


  • 0
Do not try and bend the market. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. Then you'll see, that it is not the market that bends, it is only yourself.

#49 Mr.Balls

Mr.Balls

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 103 posts

Posted 25 April 2014 - 12:13 PM

Oppened at 1.25, now trading at 1.39, volume +8 million! i'ts a wait and see game for now for me ... <_< any views?

44% in one day not too shabby! holding mine for the long term


  • 0

#50 Goliath

Goliath

    Master

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 799 posts

Posted 25 April 2014 - 10:36 AM

Oppened at 1.25, now trading at 1.39, volume +8 million! i'ts a wait and see game for now for me ... <_< any views?

 

Same here


  • 0
Never underestimate the potential for human stupidity when wealth and power are at stake!

#51 McEdama

McEdama

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 137 posts
  • LocationJohannesburg (RSA)

Posted 25 April 2014 - 10:31 AM

RESULTS OF OFFER AND LISTING OF ADVANCED HEALTH - SENS

http://www.sharenet....23163200&seq=25

 

Oppened at 1.25, now trading at 1.39, volume +8 million! i'ts a wait and see game for now for me ... <_< any views?


  • 0

#52 Shi

Shi

    Master

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 887 posts
  • LocationCape Town

Posted 23 April 2014 - 05:14 PM

RESULTS OF OFFER AND LISTING OF ADVANCED HEALTH - SENS

http://www.sharenet....23163200&seq=25


Edited by Shi, 23 April 2014 - 05:14 PM.

  • 0
“One day Alice came to a fork in the road and saw a Cheshire cat in a tree. Which road do I take? she asked. Where do you want to go? was his response. I don't know, Alice answered. Then, said the cat, it doesn't matter.” - Lewis Carroll

#53 TheLittleGuy

TheLittleGuy

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 42 posts

Posted 23 April 2014 - 10:06 AM

Interesting article looking at valuations in ASC (Ambulatory surgery centers) sector in the US. Bear in mind that the mkt in the US is a lot more developed than that in SA, so higher multiples are justified. Nevertheless it is an indication on what the market is prepared to pay for Day surgery facilities.

 

 http://www.beckersas...appraisers.html

 

On my rough estimates @100c/shr AVL will trade @ 3.56x EV/Ebitda. If the SA day surgery mkt develops there certainly is a lot of upside potential.

 


  • 0

#54 TheLittleGuy

TheLittleGuy

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 42 posts

Posted 23 April 2014 - 09:59 AM

They say everyone gets shares, so do they allocate it then by 80/217 = 36% that you offered? I offered 20,000 shares so then I get 7373?

That is what they say ... Sometimes they try to apply a bigger discount to indications that are at the larger end. The thought process being that indications at the top end have been exaggerated while those at the lower end are more real indications. What I have learnt is never count on anything until the shares are in your trading account. 


  • 0

#55 Mr.Balls

Mr.Balls

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 103 posts

Posted 23 April 2014 - 08:21 AM

They say everyone gets shares, so do they allocate it then by 80/217 = 36% that you offered? I offered 20,000 shares so then I get 7373?


  • 0

#56 TheLittleGuy

TheLittleGuy

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 42 posts

Posted 22 April 2014 - 03:25 PM

Advanced Health Limited’s (AVL) initial public offer (IPO) of 80 million shares at R1 each has attracted applications for nearly 217 million shares, the firm announced on Tuesday.

 

http://mny.co.za/54i1

sorry wrong link 

 

http://www.moneyweb....-oversubscribed


  • 0

#57 TheLittleGuy

TheLittleGuy

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 42 posts

Posted 22 April 2014 - 02:44 PM

Advanced Health Limited’s (AVL) initial public offer (IPO) of 80 million shares at R1 each has attracted applications for nearly 217 million shares, the firm announced on Tuesday.

 

http://mny.co.za/54i1


  • 0

#58 TheLittleGuy

TheLittleGuy

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 42 posts

Posted 17 April 2014 - 09:17 AM

Good analysis although you may want to spend a bit of time doing a bit more risk analysis. The risks to this business are substantial.

Firstly, regulatory risk - as you know the private sector is under scrutiny and prices could soon be regulated (read WILL be regulate). Now this as you say could well play into the hands of Advanced Health. Thing is though, in the words of Warren Buffet, you need a moat and I don't see how these guys will compete against the like of the big groups. Surely if the trend begins to push patients from hospitals into day units the big boys are not going to sit around and watch it happen? If this market is viable, mark my words, you will se aggressive expansion of the big hospital groups into it. Advanced Health could get bought out if they have enough mass by then, or they will be relegated to minor leagues.

 

My question is, if they are so brilliant at what they do, why is it they have only 2-3 clinics in Oz?

 

ps, to be honest, I like this sector and possible macrotrend. I've seen it personally in other parts of the world and SA is slow to the crease however I'm not convinced this company is the right one to take advantage of it.

 

Just my 2c..

:)

All good points Gamma and definitely worth keeping in mind. Don't get me wrong nothing comes without risk and I would encourage everyone to do their own research when considering a potential investment

 

Regarding competition from the big 3 hospital players, As you eluded to they are under intense scrutiny from the regulators given their oligopoly. Some believe they may be forced to sell off some of their hospitals to increase competition. With this in mind they may find it difficult to get licenses for new facilities, which will give other other Day Clinic operators some cushion. But I don't for one minute believe they will sit on the side lines. Lucky the market for day clinics is in its nascent stages so lots of opportunity for growth exists. The nice thing about AVL is that they are small enough, at the moment, not to be a big threat to the big 3 and fly under the radar while still making a meaningful impact to their operations and income statement. I don't believe that AVL has aspirations of taking over the Day Clinic universe, moving from 5 facilities to 15 (if successful) is decent growth though... baby steps.

 

Remember the drive to Day clinics is essentially driven by cost.

 

Mgmt succession in a big concern, the CEO & CFO will probably step down in 3 years once their share incentives vest. But many a road is paved with the grave stones of indispensable men....

 

For me execution is the biggest risk!


  • 0

#59 Geelstert

Geelstert

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 14 posts
  • LocationCape Town

Posted 17 April 2014 - 08:07 AM

Very good points Gamma,

It gave me an entire different outlook over all the hype on this share to be listed soon


  • 0

"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get" - Warren Buffett


#60 gamma

gamma

    Sage

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,470 posts
  • LocationEverywhere

Posted 16 April 2014 - 10:36 PM

If Advanced Health (AVL) can execute to plan they look set to significantly benefit from a potential secular shift in the healthcare industry.  In an attempt to reduce costs the Health Insurance providers (Discovery Health leading the charge) are incentivizing specialist to perform more surgeries at day clinics. South Africa is only has 45 day clinics vs 245 private hospitals so there is plenty of room for growth.

 

AVL is raising R100mln to triple the number of Day clinics they operate. If mgmt can execute this stock could be a 5 bagger over the net 5 years.

 

Nevertheless the 100c/shr listing price looks reasonable. 

 

Here are some of my thoughts and numbers http://wp.me/p3RKee-6x . 

 

 

Good analysis although you may want to spend a bit of time doing a bit more risk analysis. The risks to this business are substantial.

Firstly, regulatory risk - as you know the private sector is under scrutiny and prices could soon be regulated (read WILL be regulate). Now this as you say could well play into the hands of Advanced Health. Thing is though, in the words of Warren Buffet, you need a moat and I don't see how these guys will compete against the like of the big groups. Surely if the trend begins to push patients from hospitals into day units the big boys are not going to sit around and watch it happen? If this market is viable, mark my words, you will se aggressive expansion of the big hospital groups into it. Advanced Health could get bought out if they have enough mass by then, or they will be relegated to minor leagues.

 

My question is, if they are so brilliant at what they do, why is it they have only 2-3 clinics in Oz?

 

ps, to be honest, I like this sector and possible macrotrend. I've seen it personally in other parts of the world and SA is slow to the crease however I'm not convinced this company is the right one to take advantage of it.

 

Just my 2c..

:)


  • 3
Do not try and bend the market. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. Then you'll see, that it is not the market that bends, it is only yourself.





Sponsored by Sharenet and VPSNine Linux VPS Hosting