67 replies to this topic

[JK001]

Why should it go up based on recent results? Why does Cell C defy the existing Telco trend for you? Go and look at MTN and Vodacoms share price performance this year. What logic is being used to assume that a loss making Telco's share price should defy domestic industry trends? Especially on a dodgy Fibre strategy?

You and Mr. Market are misinformed if you think CellC strategy is Fibre only.   you have some serious reading to go do.

[JK001]

This doesn't make sense. Cell C partners with Fibre Network Operators like Vumatel and provide their fibre on an open access network by making services available to ISP's like Cell C? Vumatel is the Multichoice of Fibre in SA at the moment.

 

Let me ask you this. Why do you value Cell C a a loss making entity at a higher share price than profit making Telco's like Vodacom and MTN? These profit making Telco's share prices are in the doldrums at the moment? Why is Cell C a special case for you when they are in a worse financial position?

 

You are right Vumatel is one of the the Fibre suppliers, some others may even give you greater value cause they are also ISPs (internet service providers), but in BLU style (wholesale), they can you offer you better rates through CellC because of the volumes they purchase. Why do you think most of the banks sell you airtime through BLU?

 

Maybe I did not express myself well:  I said that CellC may still make a loss for the next 2 quarters.  Based on current trends less than R 600million (worst case).  So, I have put no value to CellC (it is yours for free with BLU).  And for BLU to absorb such a loss is a blink.  My humble advice is stop focusing on CellC as its is a non-event under new management.  And if it does bloom take that it as a bonus.   btw.  MTN is up 7% today - people's priority today is to first pay their mobile and or airtime/data and the rest can wait.

 

Your statement that CellC is in a worse financial position may require some additional reading.  CellC nett loss reduced with 33% to R 600 m, simple math tells me it is improving? 

 

Happy to eat humble pie come Feb 2019.   Disclaimer - I am seriously invested in BLU (relativity taken into account) and we all invest in what we believe.

[Spell Jammer]

So you're basically saying you don't see the share price going back up anytime soon?

Why should it go up based on recent results? Why does Cell C defy the existing Telco trend for you? Go and look at MTN and Vodacoms share price performance this year. What logic is being used to assume that a loss making Telco's share price should defy domestic industry trends? Especially on a dodgy Fibre strategy?

[Rex]

This doesn't make sense. Cell C partners with Fibre Network Operators like Vumatel and provide their fibre on an open access network by making services available to ISP's like Cell C? Vumatel is the Multichoice of Fibre in SA at the moment.

 

Let me ask you this. Why do you value Cell C a a loss making entity at a higher share price than profit making Telco's like Vodacom and MTN? These profit making Telco's share prices are in the doldrums at the moment? Why is Cell C a special case for you when they are in a worse financial position?

 

So you're basically saying you don't see the share price going back up anytime soon?

[Spell Jammer]

The Levy brothers have only been involved in the last 9 months, it is a turnaround story unfolding.  Vumatel has a total different target audience and is focusing on fibre sharing.  That is the same as sharing a straw to drink a double thick milk shake. But let's not get lost in the woods.  

Fact is since turn-around started the nett loss has decreased 33% (despite 28% decline in data prices)- logically that will take at most 2 more quarters to get CellC into positive territory.  Best is some of the financing is done through airtime (vapor currency). 

For argument sake, lets say in the next quarter CellC has another loss (at 33% decreased) it will be a R 300 million loss.  And let's argue that they repeat the 56% net profit growth from the current R 1.4 billion.  Think that covers the loss with a smile with some change left and guess there is some tax benefits in there too.  

This doesn't make sense. Cell C partners with Fibre Network Operators like Vumatel and provide their fibre on an open access network by making services available to ISP's like Cell C? Vumatel is the Multichoice of Fibre in SA at the moment.

 

Let me ask you this. Why do you value Cell C a a loss making entity at a higher share price than profit making Telco's like Vodacom and MTN? These profit making Telco's share prices are in the doldrums at the moment? Why is Cell C a special case for you when they are in a worse financial position?

[Jet]

Thanks..going hold then

[JK001]

Thank you for help..

You are welcome.  I am in at average R 7.06, but will buy more on payday.  So your R 6,18 is still a bargain.

[Jet]

Thank you for help..

[JK001]

Fibre revenue (not profit) only accounted for R62 million this year. Even if they grow Fibre by 300%, thats still nowhere near enough to warrant a R9-10 share price, especially given Vumatel's aggressive plans in this space.  Fibre is not even 1% of their total revenue yet they lost R1.5 BILLION in the last 2 years.

 

The Levy brothers have only been involved in the last 9 months, it is a turnaround story unfolding.  Vumatel has a total different target audience and is focusing on fibre sharing.  That is the same as sharing a straw to drink a double thick milk shake. But let's not get lost in the woods.  

Fact is since turn-around started the nett loss has decreased 33% (despite 28% decline in data prices)- logically that will take at most 2 more quarters to get CellC into positive territory.  Best is some of the financing is done through airtime (vapor currency). 

For argument sake, lets say in the next quarter CellC has another loss (at 33% decreased) it will be a R 300 million loss.  And let's argue that they repeat the 56% net profit growth from the current R 1.4 billion.  Think that covers the loss with a smile with some change left and guess there is some tax benefits in there too.  

[Jet]

Oouch....i biught at 6.18....not sure whether to cut losses or hold for how long it takes for rise....any opinions

[Rex]

This share is still crashing

[Polly]

Mr Market valuing Cell C at zero to negative value.  IMO it deserves that rating.  Blu hopelessly overpaid and will now have to carry the bag going foward

[Spell Jammer]

Spell jammer...hi...so what do you think value is ?

There's a downward trend on all Telco's at the moment given revenue and regulatory pressures. Cell C has to demonstrate something spectacular in their next set of results for me to be convinced, and that's just Cell C and not Bluetel's other core operations in Mexico etc.

 

https://za.investing...ell-c-200197476

Edited by Spell Jammer, 17 September 2018 - 03:29 PM.

[Jet]

Spell jammer...hi...so what do you think value is ?

[Spell Jammer]

Jet, why i believe the answer is yes.  Firstly R360 million of CellC loss was due to forex.  Now you could argue that the rand declined against the dollar and yes that affects companies that does not do hedging (buying currency upfront at an agreed rate).  The Levy brothers helped to reduce the R1 Billion anticipated loss by R 400 million to R600 Million.  So, let's say they improve it with only another R 300 million and have R 300 million less currency losses CellC would be profitable by maybe as soon as Feb next year.

 

They rolled out fibre to 16000 houses in one year.  Massive uncap demand for data - fibre is mostly subscription based and uncapped data, so the price of data does not matter then.  

 

They enlisted 64 mobile virtual network operators including FNB that is quoted below that Telkom and CellC should merge.  Funny how this guy from FNB is questioning FNBs strategy to become a MVNO (by implication).   

 

You cannot compare them to MTN, Telkom and Vodacom as theirs are different strategies.    

 

Fact is the commodity (airtime and data) they sell is not tangible or manufactured in a factory.  It is measured by the time and capacity of using technology infrastructure. They have an infrastructure agreement with MTN and with 2 internet service providers.  So, all this talk about CellC that will actually just be fine.

 

Now, lets look at BLU before CellC. BLU share price was more than R20 a share. That business is still as solid as it was and the massive capex spent on infrastructure in Mexico and India is almost paid off. 

 

If you take a 50% discount for doubt and investor jittery (lack of understanding tech) then R9-10 a share is not unrealistic.

 

I always like to see if the execs believe in their own company, so I look at the SENSE and see if they personally buy their own company shares.  They are.

Fibre revenue (not profit) only accounted for R62 million this year. Even if they grow Fibre by 300%, thats still nowhere near enough to warrant a R9-10 share price, especially given Vumatel's aggressive plans in this space.  Fibre is not even 1% of their total revenue yet they lost R1.5 BILLION in the last 2 years.

[Jet]

I see there agm end nov...are we expecting increase then or at q4 results...or later ?

[Jet]

Thanks a lot for the thorough response...ill hold on to mine then

[JK001]

Is this share likely increase in next 6th months...any guesses as to what? Is it in trouble? Thanks

 

Jet, why i believe the answer is yes.  Firstly R360 million of CellC loss was due to forex.  Now you could argue that the rand declined against the dollar and yes that affects companies that does not do hedging (buying currency upfront at an agreed rate).  The Levy brothers helped to reduce the R1 Billion anticipated loss by R 400 million to R600 Million.  So, let's say they improve it with only another R 300 million and have R 300 million less currency losses CellC would be profitable by maybe as soon as Feb next year.

 

They rolled out fibre to 16000 houses in one year.  Massive uncap demand for data - fibre is mostly subscription based and uncapped data, so the price of data does not matter then.  

 

They enlisted 64 mobile virtual network operators including FNB that is quoted below that Telkom and CellC should merge.  Funny how this guy from FNB is questioning FNBs strategy to become a MVNO (by implication).   

 

You cannot compare them to MTN, Telkom and Vodacom as theirs are different strategies.    

 

Fact is the commodity (airtime and data) they sell is not tangible or manufactured in a factory.  It is measured by the time and capacity of using technology infrastructure. They have an infrastructure agreement with MTN and with 2 internet service providers.  So, all this talk about CellC that will actually just be fine.

 

Now, lets look at BLU before CellC. BLU share price was more than R20 a share. That business is still as solid as it was and the massive capex spent on infrastructure in Mexico and India is almost paid off. 

 

If you take a 50% discount for doubt and investor jittery (lack of understanding tech) then R9-10 a share is not unrealistic.

 

I always like to see if the execs believe in their own company, so I look at the SENSE and see if they personally buy their own company shares.  They are.

[Jet]

Is this share likely increase in next 6th months...any guesses as to what? Is it in trouble? Thanks

[realkingkam]

You don't (compete). Hence why the merging of Telkom and CellC is a necessity according to some.

That would be fantastic . Problem is the rhetoric of BLU Cleary indicates they have no interest in such. Not a share I'm willing to invest in personally at this stage . .