Sorry for the delayed reply, was a bit busy earlier.
Firstly price is set in London and we are tracking them which is the reason for our low volume. Also we have a slightly different price because of the huge spread on the JSE.
Main risks for Kibo would have to be:
MTR failing to come good on the JVs. They are working on 2 projects for us, however those are smaller projects.
Another risk is that we may not get a good enough cut on the Rukwa deal. However I am pretty sure that any cut we get will be at the least a few multiples higher than our current Market cap. According to attendees at the shareholder presentation in UK, LC did say he was in very late discussions with at least two companies on the deal and was just working on minor details (I believe he said they were discussing "the differences between tomayto and tomaato").LC also said that there was substantial interest in the power generation project and he says kibo is in the "driver's seat" in the discussions.
I believe the valuation by the broker of 27p per share is conservative for the Rukwa project.
The Tanzanian government is very keen on this power project as they have a severe lack of electricity so I doubt we will have interference from them
Kibo have done extensive feasibility studies and have released the results over the past 3 months or so. They are currently still busy on a few DFSs on some projects though. I believe the estimates were conservative and that they used a very high discounting rate to measure the NPV of some of the smaller projects so I feel their figures are quite good.
That said, the share is still trading at 6p in the UK and I am still unsure why that is. Perhaps the market feels it is too good to be true...
This share and CRD are my main punts for 2015.
Edited by yusufm, 24 February 2015 - 05:42 PM.