3296 replies to this topic

[ZoomZ]

depending on the time alsi takes for a backtest the possible cup and handle / HnS scenario for alsi could play out from 46500..46300..or 46100. this last number is 50% FIB line ondaily chart...if cup n handle plays that would spike alsi to crazy new highs....these daily gaps make it unlikely but the charts will tell us if alsi bounces hard off these channel backtests.

[ZoomZ]

Mr RnB I feel u...indeed...I would love it....I thought that outside chance 17% probability bounce would come from 827 first time round...ven from the pivot YAR..but okay we shorts  got a bonus....if this 830 does not close on daily candle that is free money for shorts  to add...but lets see a 500 point rally before I pop more champagne. Yar...alsi has 2 intra day basis 1 minute  chart gaps at 717 and 660...they will close ..as will the basis  daily 830...watch that daily red candle lift its candle body above 830...love it...cannot see it lasting but we never know. alsi is going to 46600 minimum...its just from what levels. switzerland says not all cheese and crackers  for shorts...mmm

[REDorBLACK]

im feeling that 17%.....

[ZoomZ]

alsi left a 10 point gap at 47676...so either way we go back there for probably that washout low...I hope we rally hard above 830...so the daily candle doe snot fill gap....look to add shorts. looks like we gonna visit that 660 now..

[ZoomZ]

Alsi washout small impulse low could be 622 or lowest 537 for today..

 

the magic numbers ** 660 holding.... so at worst for shorts low is in for alsi today.

 

(but Dow still a long way to fall to test 17000/17017...so dow there  alsi could see 48330.)

 

(i want a rally to add shorts so loving any spike.)

 

weak USD /eur says Dow can go higher..brent slightly supportive of DOW.

 

 

[ZoomZ]

will cover all shorts at 551 or better 521...and swing small long for 717..787..830. short pivot again or review if racing higher.

[ZoomZ]

no real reason to but I am closing a bunch here closed at yup u guessed 47830/47824...alsi must stay below 820 daily candle basis...and everything says we must test 46650...but I am hoping for a dumb rally from here. I can take a 500 point ride upwards no problem and hope we get  it....enter more shorts up there  or add lows of day of course.

[ZoomZ]

ok good..back to sanity..for now.

[ZoomZ]

a rally is an outside chance..only 17% chance so not tradeable....but indeed we are above pivot...so if one doesn't believe 17% can smack you in the chops then stay short or out until below pivot..or ahem..go swing long. I covered many at 927 /867....smelling a rally......I am looking for a swing. but this could be short and sweet..wild wild today. I am rather looking to add shorts than swing long. confused stay out.IMO

[ZoomZ]

see ....watch out for this....i see the snake...back at 330 inaflesh Gordin. offshore  markets say no ways but man I could smell this....Yar C'mon.

[ZoomZ]

go alsi go..i want a rally hard rally....please

[Motion Picture]

yah dudes straight thru pivot but alsi is a wild card today...short is def the obvious trade, but SAB puts us in the headlights and confusion and getting a head contusion...... we must be diligent..we must be vigilant...alsi is a snake. off shore markets playing along. so short is the song.

ag, she must just bounce now and give us a chance to short again!!! 

[ZoomZ]

yah dudes straight thru pivot but alsi is a wild card today...short is def the obvious trade, but SAB puts us in the headlights and confusion and getting a head contusion...... we must be diligent..we must be vigilant...alsi is a snake. off shore markets playing along. so short is the song.

[ZoomZ]

ah super alsi seeing ring....been a good day...of course. i really hope we rally here...alsi has not closed the 830 gap...this will confuse most..most will buy alsi thinking the down time is over..could be but I trust not. offshore markets say it is unlikely and we close 830 basis daily. I am just hoping for the former scenario...swing long a little if we break and hold 48000...will be a quick jolt higher...love to see 330...but then back down when the clowns frown.

[REDorBLACK]

The smoke and mirrors produced by SAB are fading fast.

[Sam]

And straight thru the pivot...

[ZoomZ]

now what i see is this...alsi thinks it has closed todays gap..it hasnt....but also alsi thinks it closed yesterdays gap...oh it hasnt...but how about alsi rallies now to 48300/330...then we fall back to hell at 830..daily basis chart. I would llike that so we will have that. Or I simply add shorts as we fall to 830 to close yesterdays unfinished business. Yar nice

[ZoomZ]

oh that beautiful 927  on a round number break and alsi pivot...right there I can smell it...i can feel it...alsi can do it...YAR kachin kachin bada bing sing sing...

 

voila 917...beautiful trading mon

 

 

"...the dow a dear a female dear playing along sing song....:....happy as a pig with no fat I am.

 

 

-------------no lemon curd por moi na dia.

[ZoomZ]

B with respect that is impossible.....unless they change the rules for top40..and they wont. they wont. and top 40 dont have to do anything...and t40 cannot bring another 12% weighting in because that share would already be in the t40. they certainly will not bundle another 33 or 4 shares...so IMO nothing happens...the next stock in line moves  into t40...SAB moves out....the difference to alsi is marginal..or like I said it is the difference between the two shares moving in and then out. IMO 400 points. that;s it..

 

a mate  just called me ....agrees...this has happened before....many times....

 

-----------much too much hassle to change alsi rules...many implications...and besides the differencce to alsi futures CFDS etc is only 400 points...s.h.!.t on closeout the interest carry is more than that and alsi dissipates that problem easily...nothing to it.

 

 

 

==========right alsi paid Zoomz handsomely...covered all todays shorts 48017 for muito moola...now we watch..still short last nights of course. 

[Beorn]

i popped in next door to get a grip on this SAB thing..I have very little knowledge of what is going on....but my 2 cents worth is this...top 40 is float weighted..or market cap weighted...ie top 40 sahres on JSE form top 40...if SAB is delisted then indeed the  alsi will assume another share from below...ie all move  up and next market cap stock in line to be added to alsi moves into alsi basket......the difference in SAB's price and the last stock to be added to alsi t40 will be the effect on alsi...not much ..so if SAB is R800 and next  stock moving up is say R400 that the way I see it is 400 points...impactful but marginal. IMO

 

Not really that simple Z

 

SAB is a 12% weighting in Alsi, the heaviest. If it leaves they have to bring in a company to fill that 12% weighting, which is not possible, there is none on JSE. So I presume they will either bring in a couple more companies to fill gap, or re calculate the weighting as AJ said. If they do not do that and only bring in the next in line, which will only be around a 0.2% weighting, so no matter how much the share is trading @, a loss of 11% weighting will have +- 11% effect on  Alsi imo.