15225 replies to this topic

[Investment novice]

Results ahead of schedule.
And showing improvement. Accounting of numbers etc...will be beneficial downwind....matress firm and majority business units profitable double digits...


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[Tom]

They putting a litigation settlement proposal provision of 882 million euros on the six months ended March 2020, despite it wasn't made that time, neither paid that time, and still not even certain if it will be paid.

Edited by Tom, 30 July 2020 - 12:31 PM.

[DayTraderDad]

Agree Tom, we will soon see massive spikes as shorts start to cose postions risking a loss. This share you buy andnlook away for all the reasons you mentioned. The tide has turned.we waiting a sens on wiese settlement and veb...etc etc...

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Results are out!!!

[Investment novice]

Agree Tom, we will soon see massive spikes as shorts start to cose postions risking a loss. This share you buy andnlook away for all the reasons you mentioned. The tide has turned.we waiting a sens on wiese settlement and veb...etc etc...

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[Tom]

There are many big shorters that still maintain their short position on Steinhoff, but:

  - Steinhoff's ability to refinance at a lowers and reasonable interest rares is possible.

  - The current interest rates worldwide has gone down to zero, which makes it more possible to find much lower interest rates than the CVA 10%.

  - The court cases settlement will make it more possible for Steinhoff to find creditors at a reasonable interest rates.

  - This share has a lot of die-hards.

  - There's a lot of interest in Europe (Frankfurt stock exchange) in this share.

  - The management are intending to save the group.

  - A big shareholder (PIC) has a no selling policy.

  - The main underlying business (Pepco and Pepkor) are performing well and expanding.

  - Unlike other businesses that collapsed under the lock downs, Steinhoff was 95% operational in May, and currently 99% in operations, and for April there was cost cutting measures like not paying rents or salaries, and will apply for government stimulus.

 

 

For the indivdual shorters maintaining their short will bleed them money so they won't be able to hold long, but the biggest shorters are financial business holders and they're using the shares held by their own clients, so no interest on their shorts, and that's why they can hold very long, can swing and can even get some clients to buy the share if at a stage needed, and this is their strongest point.

The big shortes has access to the mass media that present them as credible, and when this combination use scare mongering, it works very well against the masses and it's really devastating

 

The shorters are using the current shareholders shares to short the share, so the shares of the investors is being used against these same investors, which inflects a lot of psychological damage on these share holders, however the shorters need at a stage to close their short, so it all depends on:

 1- Who can last longer.

 2- In which direction things will develop, Steinhoff so far is alive against all odds (e.g. ruthless creditors, court cases, lock downs ... etc.).

 

If the wind blows against the financial business holders short, it can inflect big loss on them, should things move faster than their plans or response.

Edited by Tom, 30 July 2020 - 10:38 AM.

[Tom]

Their earnings are expected to be much higher for the half year, and their Depreciation and amortization could be better than FY2019. So tomorrow it would be a much better results than the previous one.

Edited by Tom, 29 July 2020 - 10:10 AM.

[andi222]

The results tomorrow will be a non-event again as most of the information that will be in there is already known. Steinhoff will again show a loss due to the high finance costs. However these will be capitalized, so overall I think they will have generated a decent profit. 

 

Again, we will only see a significant increase in the share price once these legal claims have been solved. 

 

Regarding the Tekki Town owners, they are again greedy. Steinhoff is willing to pay 113 Million however they do not support the proposal. I mean back in the days they where also greedy when they decided to rather take up shares then to take cash for their business. 

 

I have listed the key parties that need to agree on the proposals in my previous posts, I have left Tekki Town out of that list becuase I knew they dont want the proposals.

 

According to the companies Act 75% of the claimants need to approve the proposal. If Wiese does approve we are already close to 50%. VEB was also important.

 

 

 

 

[Investment novice]

Hi Tom. This is great. Noting the number may be lower based on some of he argiments made below. Many claimants aware of SA case which puts claimants on the back foot and a settelelment more likely. To Andis points, Steinhof strategic play of poverty and credit extension really makes sense.
Steinhof themselves has counter claims and ability to get a significant portion back which has not been included as a risk share in the settlelment so all benefor to steninhof.
The amounts they sue for may be well in excess of the settlement which could be easily 7 billion usd from malpractice insurers or delloites and other auditors

This will be for existing shareholders and go towards debt reduction.

Buy this share and look away for the next 18 months.
This is a 2000 percent gain over 3 years.....

As always this is one of my high risk plays

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[Tom]

Steinhoff settlement proposal is sensible, say industry experts

https://www.biznews....ment-proposal-2

[Tom]

R16.5bn to make the R135bn Steinhoff headache go away

https://www.dailymav...away/#gsc.tab=0

 

- R135bn are only registered or claimed, but the actual number would be more, some say R 200 bn, and some say R 250 bn.

Edited by Tom, 29 July 2020 - 09:13 AM.

[Tom]

They said they would publish the HY results on 28 July, then 31, and now changed to 30 July, this indicates that they might issue another cautious and conservative results.

 

The results are expected to be not as bad as the FY2019 results, but because of the CVA 10% abnormally high interest rate, it would be losses (but not as bad), but operationally it's expected to be good.

 

How will the market view this?

[Zanme]

I agree with you Lionelza these guys are running the company for creditors.

[Lionelza1]

Steinhoff is paying huge monies to auditors, creditors, claimants, legal teams etc and zero to investors.

They have extended loan agreements because covid-19 threw their sales projections off. They are not making the sales they anticipated.


I don't see how their Financials due this week will pump up share value OR if claimants agree to proposal as most have eluded.

To me they turn around is looking like a minimum 5yr storyline

My 2 cents.... And I am hopeful this dust could settle

[Lionelza1]

Lionelza1, the problem is that Steinhoff has only issued a proposal to resolve the litigation's. This does not mean that this will be approved by all parties. You will see once this has been approved by the majority of the parties we will start seeing a sharp rise in the share price as investors will be able to calculate a fair value to the share.

The following key parties need to agree:
Creditors- I'm pretty sure Steinhoff has agreed on the terms of the proposal with them and hopefully they will agree. Also the extension to June 2023 will give Steinhoff more time to breath. This doesn't mean by all means that Steinhoff cannot repay any debt earlier or refinance any of these loans before that deadline. Steinhoff is just ensuring a safety net and time to fix all problems.

CW Wiese- He has partially agreed on the proposal. He just needs to sort out his internal stuff for the margin loans but I'm sure that they will find a solution as this is the only option for Wiese to get something out. I mean Wiese is old and wants to go on retirement. He doesn't want all this drama in his life in my opinion.
Also what a lot of people are missing is that the 200 Million € loan including interest will need to be repaid from Titan to Steinhoff.

Shareholders claim: VEB has already agreed to accept the proposal. Others will follow as the proposal is very generous as in my opinion they should have gotten zero.
Cronje, PIC, BVI, Greyling, Ferreria, Le Toit.

Once these parties have agreed I see a good chance that the proposal will be implemented.

Again I think managements plan to "act poor" might be the crux to solving all these issues and Steinhoff surviving.

I hear what ur saying but...
If you go by, buy the rumor sell the fact, what if settlements has been priced in?

The way I look at it, steinhoff is proposing settlements on creditors monies, steinhoff was on the verge of liquidation and creditors came in to save the day, and that was comforting in a way as creditors will only save the day if they "see value"

So.... If claimants accept proposal that's more monies gone, will we not see another dump in share value ? i. e selling the fact? What If this has been priced in already on the current market value of R1

What if the true value of share is R0?

A large portion of my portfolio is on steinhoff so I'm hoping for a pump.... I'm just not seeing it

[DayTraderDad]

For me Steinhoff management have been very smart. Payout 900k and this will be recovered so it would cost absolutly nothing. Further if the complainants buy shares at Euro 0.05 after settlement and restructure of the debt to cheaper loans the share will recover to the 2 euro so they woud be making 4000%.

 

Ok I can hear you guys all saying I am again drinking green beer but think about this:

 

Share at Euro 2 with a PE of 20 due to good growing company like PEPCO is a EPS of Euro 0.10.

 

Shares in issue 4130 mil therefore the earnings equal to Euro 413 mil.

 

I believe the total debt after all dust settle to be around Euro 6 bil which equates to Euro 300 mil in interest per year at 5% interest.

 

That would need a EBIT of Euro 713 ( for now assume tax is 0) that is nearly achievable in FY 2019. How will it be in FY 22? 

[DayTraderDad]

For me Steinhoff management have been very smart. Payout 900k and this will be recovered so it would cost absolutly nothing. Further if the complainants buy shares at Euro 0.05 after settlement and restructure of the debt to cheaper loans the share will recover to the 2 euro so they woud be making 4000%.

 

Ok I can hear you guys all saying I am again drinking green beer but think about this:

 

Share at Euro 2 with a PE of 20 due to good growing company like PEPCO is a EPS of Euro 0.10.

 

Shares in issue 4130 mil therefore the earnings equal to Euro 413 mil.

 

I believe the total debt after all dust settle to be around Euro 6 bil which equates to Euro 300 mil in interest per year at 5% interest.

 

That would need a EBIT of Euro 713 ( for now assume tax is 0) that is nearly achievable in FY 2019. How will it be in FY 22? 

[andi222]

Quite interedting turn of the tide. I have been flipping through the media posts and it may be the very firt time there is more positivity in the written.
Market waiting on fridays fridays financial as well as more definate sens from steinhof on conclusion or the setllement with veb and wiese. We should ecpect info on friday.....

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IN, the financials will be issued Thursday. They have moved it by one day. I'm expecting an even bigger negative equity to convince claimants they better take the proposal or they get nothing.

[andi222]

Lionelza1, the problem is that Steinhoff has only issued a proposal to resolve the litigation's. This does not mean that this will be approved by all parties. You will see once this has been approved by the majority of the parties we will start seeing a sharp rise in the share price as investors will be able to calculate a fair value to the share. 

 

The following key parties need to agree:

Creditors- I'm pretty sure Steinhoff has agreed on the terms of the proposal with them and hopefully they will agree. Also the extension to June 2023 will give Steinhoff more time to breath. This doesn't mean by all means that Steinhoff cannot repay any debt earlier or refinance any of these loans before that deadline. Steinhoff is just ensuring a safety net and time to fix all problems. 

 

CW Wiese- He has partially agreed on the proposal. He just needs to sort out his internal stuff for the margin loans but I'm sure that they will find a solution as this is the only option for Wiese to get something out. I mean Wiese is old and wants to go on retirement. He doesn't want all this drama in his life in my opinion.

Also what a lot of people are missing is that the 200 Million € loan including interest will need to be repaid from Titan to Steinhoff.

 

Shareholders claim: VEB has already agreed to accept the proposal. Others will follow as the proposal is very generous as in my opinion they should have gotten zero.

Cronje, PIC, BVI, Greyling, Ferreria, Le Toit. 

 

Once these parties have agreed I see a good chance that the proposal will be implemented.

 

Again I think managements plan to "act poor" might be the crux to solving all these issues and Steinhoff surviving. 

 

[Investment novice]

Quite interedting turn of the tide. I have been flipping through the media posts and it may be the very firt time there is more positivity in the written.
Market waiting on fridays fridays financial as well as more definate sens from steinhof on conclusion or the setllement with veb and wiese. We should ecpect info on friday.....

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[Lionelza1]

Buy the rumor, sell the fact..... Market not buying nothing on this share irrespective of what has come out thus far.

I would've thought stories on litigation was key but not even this is moving share.... So what is this market waiting on?