15225 replies to this topic

[Investment novice]

Another concern is share suspension. Could this share be suspended. Steinhof mentions it is in close conversations with both entities. I think failure to meet 2018 and failure to restructure debt will result in share suspension?

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[Captainfrom82]

Good post I agree just like to add another factor is the meeting between SNH and the claimant VEB on the 15th May.
Believe going to be a interesting conversation because equity available to shareholders is only E924 mil.

In view that there is no cash to pay the shareholders out only way is to sell assets but then CW will go to court to stop selling Pepkor
So where will this leave shareholder claims??? I think even VEB is shocked beyond understanding!!!

 

I do not think that the E924m will fool the VEB lawyers. For a start it is two years old. 

 

The meeting of May is to try and get a feel for both sides value and legitimacy of the claims. 

 

An equally important date is 31 May 2018 when we get further feedback on the LUA and CVA.

 

Regards

Captainfrom82

[DayTraderDad]

I see the journey as follows.
1. 2018 trading figures due.. Create some calmness...
2. Restructuring results in massive share spikes.
3. 2019 h1 update also due give some more respite
4. 2019 H2 figures...

Regarding the eating frenzy... I think there is truth in a scenario that there is no value left and everyone will be scavenging. This will be certainly the case if the restructuring fails.
But I am comfortable that the situation today is better than last month despite the share price and the current run for the hills. Some major milestones have been achieved. And we need to finalise restructuring for any sense of hope.
The legal issues will be fought for many years.. And a settlement will be determined perhaps in 5 to 8 years time. In any event...

Look away... And come back in June

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Good post I agree just like to add another factor is the meeting between SNH and the claimant VEB on the 15th May.
Believe going to be a interesting conversation because equity available to shareholders is only E924 mil.

In view that there is no cash to pay the shareholders out only way is to sell assets but then CW will go to court to stop selling Pepkor
So where will this leave shareholder claims??? I think even VEB is shocked beyond understanding!!!

[Investment novice]

I see the journey as follows.
1. 2018 trading figures due.. Create some calmness...
2. Restructuring results in massive share spikes.
3. 2019 h1 update also due give some more respite
4. 2019 H2 figures...

Regarding the eating frenzy... I think there is truth in a scenario that there is no value left and everyone will be scavenging. This will be certainly the case if the restructuring fails.
But I am comfortable that the situation today is better than last month despite the share price and the current run for the hills. Some major milestones have been achieved. And we need to finalise restructuring for any sense of hope.
The legal issues will be fought for many years.. And a settlement will be determined perhaps in 5 to 8 years time. In any event...

Look away... And come back in June

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[DayTraderDad]

05/10/2019 ( www.4investors.de ) - On the stock market had hoped many investors that the Steinhoff could stabilize share with the presentation of the first record since the announcement of the balance scandal end of 2017, and even perhaps pending a coup with the audited figures could. For a long time, investors had to wait for the balance sheet proposal, which had been postponed several times, before the retailer submitted it on Wednesday night. What followed was a short positive reaction of the Steinhoff share to 0.1362 euros, but this was not lasting.

In fact, the last two trading days were on balance quite a disaster for Steinhoff's share price, which until yesterday reached Wednesday's high of 0.1362 Euro 0.0979 Euro was passed. Both the closing price in yesterday's XETRA trading at 0.10 euros (-11.82 percent) and current indications at 0.102 / 0.104 euros are all too much higher. But - and that is the good news - a stabilization is emerging.

The price performance of the last two trading days has dropped the Steinhoff share under some important technical support. Among other things, the support at 0.014 / 0.105 euros and 0.108 / 0.109 euros were undershot, which could now represent the first hurdle for the share price in the event of a recovery. The technical analysis for the Steinhoff share certainly provides a possible basis for such a price development: between 0.0956 / 0.0964 Euro and 0.0973 / 0.0992 Euro support stamps can be found.

However, if Steinhoff's share price does not move significantly up from this zone, pressure on the support area should grow massively. In such a scenario could then as recently outlined further sell signals for the Steinhoff share the Unterstüzungsmarken at 0.085 / 0.088 euro or even the all-time low of 0.071 / 0.075 euros make it the target.

[DayTraderDad]

All the negative commentary in the news has scared people. Selling will stop and bottom out and then slowly rise to …. The 2018 financials are still coming up.[/size]

This is the only positive news I can find:

https://citizen.co.z...n-more-patience

Steinhoff gives investors hope but they will need even more patience

Highlight:

However, it is important to take a closer look. Notes to the income statement show that downward adjustments to goodwill, other intangible assets and property, plant and equipment to the tune of €3.9 billion contributed the lion’s share to the loss.

If these adjustments bring to book the problems, and account for the dishonesty, investors can look forward to the 2018 results to gauge the real operating performance of Steinhoff’s underlying operating companies – and measure the trace of optimism one can pick up at times when reading management’s review of operations.

Steinhoff CEO Louis du Preez says in his review of the results that the group has made the progress needed to ensure financial stability going forward. “We have been engaged in a tireless effort to restructure our finances since December 2017 and are now entering the final stages of this process. We are grateful to our creditors in agreeing to a lock-up agreement in July 2018, giving us the opportunity to develop a restructuring plan which will give the group a period of financial stability to 31 December 2021.”

[DayTraderDad]

The Pepkor results are fantastic.

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Exactly show me any retailer that is producing such results at present in SA!!!
But good news does not sell news papers so this will be overlooked my the media or they will find something to say actually they are bad!!!

[Captainfrom82]

The Pepkor results are fantastic.

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Rough calcs of Steinhoff's 71.01% interest in Pepkor Africa = approximately E80m in cash just based on earnings.  The EBITDA  will be higher. 

 

Be conservation and double this to get an estimate of the FY19 and you get E160

 

Not shabby at all.

Edited by Captainfrom82, 10 May 2019 - 09:57 AM.

[Investment novice]

The Pepkor results are fantastic.

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[Milo]

All the negative commentary in the news has scared people. Selling will stop and bottom out and then slowly rise to …. The 2018 financials are still coming up.

 

[Captainfrom82]

Pretty good trading update for Pepkor.

 

For the six-month period ended 31 March 2019, Pepkor expects:
⎯ Earnings per share will be between 48.7 cents and 55.9 cents, being between 34.4% and 54.4% higher than the 36.2 cents reported for the previous corresponding reporting period; and
⎯ Headline earnings per share will be between 48.6 cents and 55.8 cents, being between 34.1% and 54.1% higher than the 36.2 cents reported for the previous corresponding reporting period.

Pepkor’s results for the six months ended 31 March 2019 are expected to be published on SENS on or about 29 May 2019.

 

 

Not too shabby...

[LarryK]

Hey Andi222,

An Important & Interesting question...especially as many people believe that this (EBIDTA) is THE key to Steinhoff's future.

I will post the numbers in a separate post. However, I thought it would be interesting to post on the behavioural aspects differences that I have come across in the various countries.

Everyone has an opinion about Steinhoff overall, and as a result most of them seem to hold some position regarding the revenue and sustainable EBIT/EBITDA and earnings. Everyone is obviously entitled to their opinions. My serious concern comes where misinformation (or fake news) is passed on as a matter of fact. But lets not open that can of worms again.

Be that as it may, clearly there are extremely polarised views and opinions of the sustainability (and survival) of Steinhoff. By association therefore, the earnings are a source of great consternation and interest.

And this is not just here in South Africa. I have come across this to a far lesser extent in Germany and back home. But nowhere are the arguments as robust as in South Africa. It may be a national psyche or some behavioural thing that is especially relevant to South Africa – but for whatever reason, the South African investors seem to be overly focused on the negative aspects. They look for all the reasons why Steinhoff will fail, whereas there are probably far more logical and practical reasons why Steinhoff will succeed and survive.

I have often wondered in the past months if Google, Apple, Berkshire, Amazon – large companies incubated in the good 'ol US would actually have flourished in South Africa. It is rather telling that Elon Musk - a son of South Africa – went to the US to realise his dreams.

By the way, the country that seems to have the highest tolerance for Steinhoff’s ability to survive is actually in my experience, Israel. They are piling into Steinhoff on a massive scale. This is incredible because you would have thought that South Africa with the whole Afrikaner pride thing would have cut the company some slack – and that many more South African investors would still believe in this company. But then again, what do I know about the local psyche?

I have learned that this Sharechat forum is an interesting microcosm of the South African overall and is an interesting representation of love/hate relationship with Steinhoff.

I just thought that it was worth sharing this merely out of interest. I hope that I have not hirt anyone’s feelings. I mean no harm.

Best Regards
Captainfrom82

Some weird comments here captain, but hey it’s your opinion
Ps Tesla would be useless in SA... too much loadshedding

[Investment novice]

Short sellers will have to recoup. Expect a bounce and steadying. Sonns info was quite supportive of a turnaround. Delloite paragraphs on going concerns shook the market despite that being a responsibility and not altogether a 100% reality.
There is quite abit of appetite for this share currently especially as a trade.

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[Midas1]

All i can comment on is snh is not my choice but been crap market day everywhere cause trade wars..so if you want sell wait for upswing cause seems us pacifying...

[Midas1]

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[DayTraderDad]

Now they all commentating all that's left is a skeleton with vultures circling around it and not worth investing in. Do you have to believe them now? Maybe they wrong again and just following the crowd and not doing proper research.

Haha Milo exactly all these hot shots know just as much a a shoe shine boy in wall street!!!

[Milo]

For those that feel like laughing a little with a cold beer!!!

https://www.cnbcafri...off-hot-or-not/

Now they all commentating all that's left is a skeleton with vultures circling around it and not worth investing in. Do you have to believe them now? Maybe they wrong again and just following the crowd and not doing proper research.

[Captainfrom82]

Good points.

 

So the NAV impact on those would be the following:

MF +-1 billion, here 3,3 billion is intercompany debt

Confo +- 1,7 billion, here 1,6 billion is intercompany debt to SEAG

Greenlit - I have no value here. Maybe you could help?

 

How much would you value Pepkor Europe for a possible IPO? Same as Pepkor SA? Say 1,5 billion euro selling 30% at IPO?

 

Hey Andi222,

 

I suddenly realise that I may not have been particularly clear.  There is another matter which I hope I have not misinformed you on by not fully stating the impact. 

 

Regarding the previous consolidated subsidiary eg MF that is now a business that is accounted for by equity accounting, and more importantly the treatment of the debt...

 

Firstly, original debt is still in the books of Steinhoff.  Even if Steinhoff somehow changes the reporting relationship with the subsidiary to equity accounting, and even if MF then has a loan owed to Steinhoff (hence an asset on Steinhoff's books), this does not necessarily extinguish Steinhoff's debt to the external creditor.  At best the loan liability on Steinhoff's books is contra'd by the new asset.  So you cannot suddenly add the assets to the asset base to obtain a NAV.

 

However, an important caveat is that if Steinhoff and the subsidiary manage to move the debt from Steinhoff to the subsidiary, and if the subsidiary then is accounted for by equity accounting, this should be positive by comparison to the current NAV calcs.

 

Hope this clears up the confusion.

 

Best regards

Captainfrom82

[DayTraderDad]

For those that feel like laughing a little with a cold beer!!!

https://www.cnbcafri...off-hot-or-not/

[DayTraderDad]

The reason why people hate Steinhoff in SA is because its viewed as a Stellenbosch Afrikaner ( mafia as some refer it too)
business so all the English investors and media attack it I guess the Bore war still very much alive!!!