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#223250 ALSI Trades

Posted by Sunesis on 15 November 2013 - 11:57 AM

A prayer before Top40 explodes

 

Our Fed, Who art in Washington, Yellen be thy name, Thy printing come, Thy will be done by Ben as it is with Janet, Give us this day our daily billion, and increase our debts, As we bail out our debtors, And lead us not into inflation, But deliver us from down markets, For thine is the printing, the bubble and the euphoria, Forever till taper. Amen


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#256771 CFD Trades - Trending Shares

Posted by Pilotpilot on 02 June 2015 - 11:31 AM

Hi Pilot,

 

Great thread, been following it since you started it.

 

I was wondering how you determine in which way the trend is heading? Is it through technical analysis?

 

Hi pilot thanks for the great advise. I'm sure most of us would like to know this but you keep talking about you triggers and indicators. Would you mind giving your break down of your ticks/rules that a trade needs to make for you to consider it?<br /><br />Thank in advance. 😄

 

Morning Gents

 

Just to give you bit of background.

 

I have been investing since 1994 and was fascinated with the Stock Exchange (and I still am). I have a strong maths background and wanted to figure out why and when to buy shares. Warren Buffet , had me hooked on value investing by 2005, but I was a big fan of technical analysis. So since 2006 I backed only value shares and used technical analysis to determine good entry points. I started using SSF in 2008 to increase my exposure, but at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009 I lost everything. I was holding shares like BRN, OML, SHF and TKG. In those days it was the best value I could find on the market, and had I held them till today, I would have done well. But if there is panic and fear in the market, you can hold the best of shares, they will get smash. And when you think its the bottom.... they get smashed some more. 19 and 20 February 2009 was the end for me when OML dropped 7,3% and 5,8% in succession, after dropping from my R8-00 entry to R7-00 before the 19th. Not happy times, to say the least.

 

Now on to the better news. The lessons I learned from this experience, has changed my view on the way the market is moving. Fundamentals wasn't moving it, in the short term anyway. So my interest changed to reading up everything on market cycles and trends, which shares do best in which part of the cycle. It is all good to know this, but when is the start and when is the beginning and when do the certain sector start moving. It was very vague. And that took me right back to my Technical analysis. Three years ago I was full time into technical analysis and tried about 100 different technical indicators. Using them in different ways, and added % chance of success on each of them. Most of them don't work on their own effectively, but I had about 15 that worked the best.

 

The last year my focus swung to what happens right before an uptrend or downtrend and I found that certain (modified) indicators do the same thing nearly every time a new trend starts (about 85% success). In March this year I ran preliminary data on Jan, Feb and March of 2015 and came to the astonishing conclusion, of doing 67%, 80% and 55% in each of those months (with gearing of course). Around 10-20% without gearing.

 

My next step was to prove it with real trading scenarios and thus the thread, I started here on sharechat. I am in the process of leaving my current job, and to pursue trading shares full time. 

 

If someone can come up with a descent 8 digit amount for my model, I would sell it. :D  But I don't want to jeopardise the sale of my model by giving all the information that I have. 

 

 

I do use RSI indicators, Divergence indicators (I developed myself), STS indicators (modified), MFI indicator (modified), sma's and wma's. Most of these indicators values have been changed to give smoother and more accurate trigger points. Some of the short term Indicators need to do the same thing at the same time, to validate a trend changes, but then I need to see a trend break on the RSI indicators as well. (Not on the graph). I would sometimes say a trend has broken, but it has broken on the RSI and not on the graph. 

 

Lastly, I would go to the graph, and especially with big formation breaks, it confirms the new trend and the break. Then a new trend has started (most of the time)

 

I know I'm not giving you a lot of information, but hope this will help. 

 

In the meantime, I will be posting on here, to share my view. Thanks to everyone for all the interest! ;)

 

Happy Trading

 

 

Pilot


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#255946 Today's CFD Call

Posted by Pilotpilot on 11 May 2015 - 11:51 PM

Attached is tommorrow's shares. 4 New shares showing bull trend entries and changes to some of todays missed trades.

The traded shares today did well with the 2 x one star Long positions (BAT + INL), being weakish, but is in the uptrend.

 

Heaven knows why I went for R66-00 on IMP today (should have been R67-30, where top 3 day resistance was)

Might have dozed off :lol: Anyway, all traded positions are in trend.

 

JDG is a scary long, after its hard push, but has entered a new uptrend. (Not sure how fast it will move or for how long)

 

 

Attached Files


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#234445 Advanced Health

Posted by gamma on 16 April 2014 - 10:36 PM

If Advanced Health (AVL) can execute to plan they look set to significantly benefit from a potential secular shift in the healthcare industry.  In an attempt to reduce costs the Health Insurance providers (Discovery Health leading the charge) are incentivizing specialist to perform more surgeries at day clinics. South Africa is only has 45 day clinics vs 245 private hospitals so there is plenty of room for growth.

 

AVL is raising R100mln to triple the number of Day clinics they operate. If mgmt can execute this stock could be a 5 bagger over the net 5 years.

 

Nevertheless the 100c/shr listing price looks reasonable. 

 

Here are some of my thoughts and numbers http://wp.me/p3RKee-6x . 

 

 

Good analysis although you may want to spend a bit of time doing a bit more risk analysis. The risks to this business are substantial.

Firstly, regulatory risk - as you know the private sector is under scrutiny and prices could soon be regulated (read WILL be regulate). Now this as you say could well play into the hands of Advanced Health. Thing is though, in the words of Warren Buffet, you need a moat and I don't see how these guys will compete against the like of the big groups. Surely if the trend begins to push patients from hospitals into day units the big boys are not going to sit around and watch it happen? If this market is viable, mark my words, you will se aggressive expansion of the big hospital groups into it. Advanced Health could get bought out if they have enough mass by then, or they will be relegated to minor leagues.

 

My question is, if they are so brilliant at what they do, why is it they have only 2-3 clinics in Oz?

 

ps, to be honest, I like this sector and possible macrotrend. I've seen it personally in other parts of the world and SA is slow to the crease however I'm not convinced this company is the right one to take advantage of it.

 

Just my 2c..

:)


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#228182 Mine Restoration Investments - MRI

Posted by REDDEVON on 20 January 2014 - 09:27 PM

It reads also:
"MRI’s coal briquetting plant at the Vaalkrantz Mine in Kwazulu-Natal in South Africa (‘the Project’), which commenced operations from run of mine coal in October 2013, has now installed and fully commissioned a re-suspension unit allowing it to operate from the fines stockpile of the plant. With this initial ramp up now complete, the Project can commence full commercial production".

They have been producing briquettes from the 10% run off from the wash plant to date as they are right next to it with their briquette production. The waste fines stockpile is massive, it means now they can eat into the stockpile as and when they wish as well as using the day to day run off. They are ramping up production. Making as many Briquettes as they can. Good News.
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#294163 Steinhoff

Posted by andi222 on 08 December 2020 - 12:12 PM

Yeah so the following events have an impact on the share price:

 

- Brexit deal

- Pepco group to release their numbers today. There is a live webcast today at 2. Apparently pound land has increased their turnover to close to 2 billion €.

- 12 and 15 December we will know if we have approval for extension of debt facilities. Which will also determine if the GS will be approved.

- Given this sharp increase so far we might even be included in the S DAX next year again. So Funds will monitor this and start buying as soon as they see Steinhoff meets the requirements.

 

So I think we might see a nice run up the following weeks, hopefully it will be sustainable this time. Let's hope for good news along the way.


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#250460 Torre (TOR)

Posted by Shortboy on 26 November 2014 - 04:51 PM

I have been a long term holder since SA French days and recently bought another batch at R3.12. My average price per share paid is R1.05

The CEO is one of the sharpest (in the right way), most innovative, hardworking people I have ever met and not at all arrogant considering what he has achieved.....unlike our much older buddies at Ellies who have created masses of deeply pained shareholders.

If anyone can pull off an Invicta look alike, its Charles Pettit and my money is on him....for the long term.

Be patient, just watch. I have seen this movie before.
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#244967 ALSI Trades

Posted by BlythZ on 21 August 2014 - 10:16 AM

This market has been very difficult to read for long term views, i think the playing ground is not even. Look at how most people on Twitter were saying if 45,850 is breached then there will be serious pain for Bulls and they made sure they got into our heads to make sure most people close their longs at a loss around that level and after trading below that 45,850 level for a short time we started to go higher and higher and closed the day up when most people thought that we were going to continue heading south and some were saying we will reach the 45,000 level. 

 

I really feel sorry for you Argento and other guys who got caught up in this but i guess now we should really look at the charts for guidance and after that think of what MMs would do next before placing a trade, i am sure that way you will end up making the right calls. 

 

I must admit these guys really bruised my account and my ego in 3 days! 30 July, 31 July and 1 August and it took a few days to sober up and get back to trading, the system that HDB shared for FREE and his FREE advice has really helped me get my ego back and some money that i lost in those 3 days. So the bottom line is, the playing field is not even and don't let that bruise your ego. 

 

Happy trading to you all


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#242415 ALSI Trades

Posted by grantmu on 31 July 2014 - 01:08 PM

For those struggling with finding the turns on the market, here is an indicator for Prorealtime IG traders. This indicator is only good for the SA40 and only accurate on the 5 minute chart, it works exceptionally well in confirming market direction changes.

 

Read the PDF document for instructions on how to install it and use it, Save the TXT file to the desktop, this group will not allow certain files to be uploaded so you are going to have to change the txt extension to itf, so the file name will have to be "HULL and linear regress.itf" 

 

If you find any faults in the indicator please email me and I will try and fix them, have been using this for about 3 months with no problems so far, comments are welcome. 

 

G

Attached Files


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#233583 AFDAWN

Posted by Taurus on 07 April 2014 - 06:37 PM

yep, things are moving slowly but they are moving. I remember an earlier comment in the FM (June 2013):

 

"While Van der Merwe's work since he left the JSE has included acquiring various investments under the Zorgvleit Group banner, he has shown an inclination towards technology investment. In 2011, he initiated the recently completed development of Community+27, an online community portal. Whether Van der Merwe intends listing any of his existing investments into Afdawn has not yet been signalled. Van Zyl's presence, though, suggests there could be fresh deal flow"

 

Once the new direction manifests it should start to reflect in the share price. The upcoming AGM could reveal some positive news. 


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#233175 Small Caps: Which is the Next Ten Bagger?

Posted by Goliath on 01 April 2014 - 05:13 PM

I thought this would plummet, since going from 13.59 c to a new 6.43c nav

 

Net asset value per share (cents)                         6.43          13.59

 

Actually thought so too, I took a small punt with this one a while back and is currently just that, but given their outlook/prospects etc it's worth a small bet (definitely not worth investing millions though currently!)


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#224212 Mine Restoration Investments - MRI

Posted by Krustytheclown on 22 November 2013 - 12:58 PM

Volume picking up again here. I had to laugh at posters saying they were concerned about the poor financials. This is a new business. Inevitably it will have significant set up costs. What I am investing in is the undoubted potential from a sound business plan, which is now operational.

From Armadale Capital RNS

"Justin Lewis, Director of Armadale and a member of the MRI Board said, “We are pleased to report that MRI’s coal briquetting plant successfully commenced operations in October 2013. The Board of MRI believe that this commercial development will contribute to the overall profitability of the MRI group as they continue to ramp up production. I look forward to providing further updates on the anticipated expansion in production in due course."

I believe these financials will begin to look after themselves.

All positives in my book. GLA.
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#223170 ALSI Trades

Posted by Sunesis on 15 November 2013 - 07:25 AM

Yip Yellen was so dovish she made Ben look like a hawk...markets melting up now...getting crazy and very dangerous. If you made money this year and feel rich, I advise you to bank some profits before you rush out to spend the cash.

I'm afraid i can't put my money in any bank. It will just be worthless by the time i take it out. All the savers have been suckeered by the banks. Saving money is the worst advise i have heard in my life. The poor save money, the rich make it work.

 

I need to make my money work

Weather i buy stocks,bonds,gold,silver,oil,real estate,grains etc. it just needs to be working.

Money sitting in the bank is eroding


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#221393 CML

Posted by gamma on 28 October 2013 - 04:17 PM

Told you guys to accumulate on weakness in the 50s and then the 60s.

Now after a few months of slumber...

 

 

Like I said..BOOM!


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#254217 ALSI Trades

Posted by HDB on 23 March 2015 - 07:23 AM

Out of the goodness of my heart and for mostly the silent members who appreciate it heres todays post for OUV from my forum..

 

Yawn Yawn.....means $$$$
 
IG currently 46560 / 46590
 
Good Morning peeps.... todays ouv at 6am is
 
 
46920.48657 46934.2774
========= ===========
46851.49104 46865.18282
 
 
 
Today i have R 1 @46735
 
If you conservative , you can get off the bus at this stop!!!
 
Next stop will be 46800....46850!!
 
WCS i have is 46736 which is coincidentally R1
 
 
Today im going to be greedy!!!!
 
Everything looks positive , even BHP in OZZ
 
Howver OIL has had a pullback so worst case allow 100p drop for bhp!! ( i dont even see that happening)
 
 
Good Luck,,,,
 
 
 
 
and now latest...
 
 
 
 
 
atest 

46890.53281 46904.91048
========= ==================
46795.33684 46809.75258


rand strengthening and slight pullback on ten cent has brought arbitrage down!!
 
 
No guarantees or warranties!!!
 
 
Use it , abuse it , its up to u!!!!

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