Highest Reputation Content

Bit of a stupid question, but I still don't know how to give reputation points. anyone willing to share?

Not entirely sure I should be giving lessons on this but...

 

Red or Green up and down arrow on the right hand side of a post. But make sure you click the correct one.

Positive trading statement from Santova this morning:

 

Shareholders are advised that Santova expects Group headline earnings per share for the
financial year ended 28 February 2015 to be between 29.7 and 32.2 cents per share, and
Group basic earnings per share to be between 26.9 and 29.2 cents per share, both
amounts increasing between 20% and 30% compared to the results reported in the
previous corresponding period.
 

Brothers, it's not a pissing contest; we're traders. Back to the matter at hand.

 

I'm still long from 46215. My target of 46516 wasn't hit, this thing turned around at 46470, but that's OK. It shall be reached, come rain or shine.

 

Happy trading.

mate i'm only tugging your sporren...all's good. this forum must be careful of itself...there are some pros here and some novices...all should respect where they fit..and don;t let envy rule...stupid people mock those seem better than themselves....these persons make themselves obvious. rather learn..listen,think, watch and learn or else we see childish arguments. no place for that...this place is a lecture hall...a place where some teach,some illustrate and others discern.but dont mock the lecturers. anyway i'm off.

McMoolah I know you want it up and you shall get it in the short term, then bail out for all you are worth as it is presently rising towards it's upper band of it's downward trading channel, but shall merely yo yo up and down in the downward channel each low lower than the previous and each high lower than the preceding one. Many amateurs shall be caught by the present attractive PE of 7, forgetting it is based on previous div which naturally shall not be repeated. Study the world iron ore situation rather and draw your conclusions on that, then only the microcosm of Kumba, the NAV is a mere 66- so even at 300- it is expensive.

 

I agree with the trading update. It is trading with a decreasing band.

 

I disagree with your valuation though. RAND PRICE of Iron ore is really what one should be looking at, and given where the rand is going, I'd say the PE and Div are largely sustainable of the short to medium term. 

 

The only caveat is the Capex, which will be a bit more expensive. But given where the Kumba is on the cost curve, the business will continue to make money, and will re-rate as soon as analysts see this.

On  a more serious note here's what i think about small caps. There is nothing wrong about investing in small caps as long as you understand what you are holding. Small caps are often under-capitalized which mean that they are much more interest rate sensitive. Small caps have been helped here by the falling interest rates the last few years. If you believe that we have hit the bottom in the interest rate cycle which we definitely have , then you should  reconsider your holdings in these small caps especially over the next few years. If you think their growth will exceed the interest rate increase and allowance for inflation, then by all means hold on to them, otherwise keep away!!

If Advanced Health (AVL) can execute to plan they look set to significantly benefit from a potential secular shift in the healthcare industry.  In an attempt to reduce costs the Health Insurance providers (Discovery Health leading the charge) are incentivizing specialist to perform more surgeries at day clinics. South Africa is only has 45 day clinics vs 245 private hospitals so there is plenty of room for growth.

 

AVL is raising R100mln to triple the number of Day clinics they operate. If mgmt can execute this stock could be a 5 bagger over the net 5 years.

 

Nevertheless the 100c/shr listing price looks reasonable. 

 

Here are some of my thoughts and numbers http://wp.me/p3RKee-6x . 

Nice one littleguy!

footprints..no-one is interested in the crap you posting.  stop spamming this thread.

This the moment of our deepest sorrow. Our nation has lost its greatest son, yet what made Nelson Mandela great was precisely what made him human

Our deepest condolences to the family of Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela, and the nation at large for the loss of our former State President

 

Lets pay our last respects

 

 

P..we have all been there..Iv been there several times..and likely to go there in future again along with everyone else. Was it because of a simple miscalculation on your part? that can be fixed and learnt from. If it was because a biased was formed based on opinion on the forum and you just didn't let it go? I suppose thats a personal question that only you can answer. There is no train or express, only a chart that moves up and down.  You are doing all the hard graft already! Now do the easy part as well and make that money!

 

 

The market doesn’t know your emotions or care about your portfolio. The market is moving on. And so should you.” – Terry Savage

One of the most challenging aspects of trading is learning to understand and appreciate that our constant desire to be right and smart in the markets will always cloud our judgment and too often work against us at the most inconvenient times.

In this current bull stampede, there are unfortunately too many traders and investors who are short or sidelined and now in desperate need for the market to move lower. How do I know this happening? This past week alone I received dozens of emails from those who expressed utter confusion and disappointment in why I’m not paying much attention to a number of bearish factors (i.e. low volume, overbought conditions, VIX readings, earnings/data not surpassing expectations, Baltic Dry Index, poor February seasonality, etc.) My reply in every single case was the following:

“The price action remains positively firm and our job is to be aligned with the price action as long as it remains that way. While that doesn’t mean we ignore the risks or think this market is somehow has magically become invincible, we have to constantly align our positions in the direction that offers the great probability for profit. In this environment that means you stay opportunistically bullish until we see that change. And, don’t worry – I’ll be here to help you see that change as soon as it happens.”

The challenge, as all of us will learn soon or later learn, is that Mr. Market doesn’t listen or care about anyone’s else opinion but his very own. This is especially true when we are wrong and not following his hidden and often very confusing agenda. Mr. Market often acts like a rebellious teenager and does exactly what he wants to do, when he wants to do it, and at the same time pays no respect for anyone who disagrees with him or believe he should act logically or within reason. In fact, a recent tendency is for the market to do exactly the opposite of tendencies we’ve seen so many times before. This is why you must place so much importance on what the market is actually doing rather than what you think it should do.

In truth, we’ve all been there, haven’t we? I know I have. In fact, more times I can even recall or really care to admit. I have also wasted and missed far too many opportunities by devoting precious time and energy looking for reasons to justify mistakes I have already made hoping that somehow that will make it better or help me to overcome my disappointment in my bottom line performance. Unfortunately, that never works and, even worse, only increases the pain and lengthens period of poor performance. This is not good especially if you are trying to make a living from trading!

While I know many of you don’t want it, here is some free advice for those who were positioned wrong for the past few weeks and who are significantly under performing so far this year. Your job right now is not to spend a moment longer asserting you were just early (which is the equivalent of being wrong in this game) but rather own up to the mistake and then figure out why the mistake was made. After you do that, it is just as important to figure out what lessons there are to be learned so you don’t repeat the same mistake again. In simple, ask yourself this – what could you have done differently or better to have profited more since this rally began? That’s the question to ask right now. Once you have your answer, then move on.

In my experience, that’s what winners do that losers do not. And, since we all desire to be winners, that’s what you need to do right now to get back on track especially if your among the many who have been left in the dust in this bull stampede!

- See more at: http://www.kirkrepor...h.NURQ60vf.dpuf

Read of the Year

Hi Pilot,

 

Great thread, been following it since you started it.

 

I was wondering how you determine in which way the trend is heading? Is it through technical analysis?

 

Hi pilot thanks for the great advise. I'm sure most of us would like to know this but you keep talking about you triggers and indicators. Would you mind giving your break down of your ticks/rules that a trade needs to make for you to consider it?<br /><br />Thank in advance. 😄

 

Morning Gents

 

Just to give you bit of background.

 

I have been investing since 1994 and was fascinated with the Stock Exchange (and I still am). I have a strong maths background and wanted to figure out why and when to buy shares. Warren Buffet , had me hooked on value investing by 2005, but I was a big fan of technical analysis. So since 2006 I backed only value shares and used technical analysis to determine good entry points. I started using SSF in 2008 to increase my exposure, but at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009 I lost everything. I was holding shares like BRN, OML, SHF and TKG. In those days it was the best value I could find on the market, and had I held them till today, I would have done well. But if there is panic and fear in the market, you can hold the best of shares, they will get smash. And when you think its the bottom.... they get smashed some more. 19 and 20 February 2009 was the end for me when OML dropped 7,3% and 5,8% in succession, after dropping from my R8-00 entry to R7-00 before the 19th. Not happy times, to say the least.

 

Now on to the better news. The lessons I learned from this experience, has changed my view on the way the market is moving. Fundamentals wasn't moving it, in the short term anyway. So my interest changed to reading up everything on market cycles and trends, which shares do best in which part of the cycle. It is all good to know this, but when is the start and when is the beginning and when do the certain sector start moving. It was very vague. And that took me right back to my Technical analysis. Three years ago I was full time into technical analysis and tried about 100 different technical indicators. Using them in different ways, and added % chance of success on each of them. Most of them don't work on their own effectively, but I had about 15 that worked the best.

 

The last year my focus swung to what happens right before an uptrend or downtrend and I found that certain (modified) indicators do the same thing nearly every time a new trend starts (about 85% success). In March this year I ran preliminary data on Jan, Feb and March of 2015 and came to the astonishing conclusion, of doing 67%, 80% and 55% in each of those months (with gearing of course). Around 10-20% without gearing.

 

My next step was to prove it with real trading scenarios and thus the thread, I started here on sharechat. I am in the process of leaving my current job, and to pursue trading shares full time. 

 

If someone can come up with a descent 8 digit amount for my model, I would sell it.   But I don't want to jeopardise the sale of my model by giving all the information that I have. 

 

 

I do use RSI indicators, Divergence indicators (I developed myself), STS indicators (modified), MFI indicator (modified), sma's and wma's. Most of these indicators values have been changed to give smoother and more accurate trigger points. Some of the short term Indicators need to do the same thing at the same time, to validate a trend changes, but then I need to see a trend break on the RSI indicators as well. (Not on the graph). I would sometimes say a trend has broken, but it has broken on the RSI and not on the graph. 

 

Lastly, I would go to the graph, and especially with big formation breaks, it confirms the new trend and the break. Then a new trend has started (most of the time)

 

I know I'm not giving you a lot of information, but hope this will help. 

 

In the meantime, I will be posting on here, to share my view. Thanks to everyone for all the interest!

 

Happy Trading

 

 

Pilot