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Small Caps: Which is the Next Ten Bagger?

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#1 Bullhunter

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Posted 25 April 2018 - 10:25 AM

Wonder if Steinhoff  15 years ago met this criteria. Was at R15.00 some moons back

 

 

A 20% trailing stop loss would certainly have been helpful.  You would have got out on the 7th October 2016 close of R76.05 following its peak of R96.05 close on 4th April 2016


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#2 Polly

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Posted 25 April 2018 - 10:05 AM

 

How to identifying ALL ten baggers early in their growth curve:

 

Most if not all 'Ten Baggers"  will first appear on the daily new highs list, even before they double in value. 

 

  • Only buy New highs of companies showing consistent growth, preferably HEPS growth of > 20%.
  • Use a 20 % trailing stop loss(technical definition of a bear market) to begin with. If the growth curve starts exceeding 45 degrees, tighten the trailing stop loss (rapidly growing shares are volatile). 
  • If a new high does not retrace, keep buying. It is a rocket.
  • Bank any profit taken in shares, not cash.

 

 

Wonder if Steinhoff  15 years ago met this criteria. Was at R15.00 some moons back


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#3 Bullhunter

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Posted 25 April 2018 - 09:57 AM

How to identifying ALL ten baggers early in their growth curve:

 

Most if not all 'Ten Baggers"  will first appear on the daily new highs list, even before they double in value. 

 

  • Only buy New highs of companies showing consistent growth, preferably HEPS growth of > 20%.
  • Use a 20 % trailing stop loss(technical definition of a bear market) to begin with. If the growth curve starts exceeding 45 degrees, tighten the trailing stop loss (rapidly growing shares are volatile). 
  • If a new high does not retrace, keep buying. It is a rocket.
  • Bank any profit taken in shares, not cash.

Edited by Bullhunter, 25 April 2018 - 09:58 AM.

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#4 Magnet

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Posted 23 April 2018 - 09:42 AM

Kibo is marching towards its Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with the Tanzanian Government steadily.

 

Specifically tomorrow will see a work session for the full task team (representatives from Kibo and the Government) to finalise where possible and identify any bottlenecks and take action. Hopefully this should see the PPA signed soon. Perhaps a month?

 

Once signed the coal-to-power project can be financed. My guess is the financiers have already sketched in various possible financing deals based on various outcomes of the PPA, so once the PPA is known it may largely be a matter of picking the applicable deal. Then construction of the coal mine and neighbouring power plant can begin. The construction period has been scheduled for three years.

 

Three years seems like a long time but to me the share is considerably de-risked from 3 years ago (when it was still the same price as today) and will continue to de-risk as various construction milestones are met.

 

Have heard rumors of potential delays of a few months to this.


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#5 Targeter

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Posted 09 April 2018 - 03:17 PM

Kibo is marching towards its Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with the Tanzanian Government steadily.

 

Specifically tomorrow will see a work session for the full task team (representatives from Kibo and the Government) to finalise where possible and identify any bottlenecks and take action. Hopefully this should see the PPA signed soon. Perhaps a month?

 

Once signed the coal-to-power project can be financed. My guess is the financiers have already sketched in various possible financing deals based on various outcomes of the PPA, so once the PPA is known it may largely be a matter of picking the applicable deal. Then construction of the coal mine and neighbouring power plant can begin. The construction period has been scheduled for three years.

 

Three years seems like a long time but to me the share is considerably de-risked from 3 years ago (when it was still the same price as today) and will continue to de-risk as various construction milestones are met.


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#6 Goliath

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Posted 09 April 2018 - 02:06 PM

took the gamble as well :)

 

I took a small bite of Ellies as well purely on gambling on the chance that the second year of their "turn-around" is still going strong.. coupled with Orion my two penny stock gambles!


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#7 PlatinumWealth.co.za

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Posted 09 April 2018 - 11:38 AM

Orion Minerals ORN, see link for lots of info on this potential baggger.

 

https://stockhead.co...rican-explorer/

took the gamble as well :) 


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#8 Targeter

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Posted 29 March 2018 - 03:51 PM

The end of March 2018 nears. Kibo (JSE: KBO) which has an electricity generation project in Tanzania was targeting the end of March as the date by which it expected to have a signed PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) signed with the Tanzanian Government for the sale of electricity by Kibo. Such agreement might be a few days late, but the CEO (Mr Louis Coetzee) said it's a question of WHEN and not IF it will be signed. On a net basis, the share price hasn't moved in three years, which the company doesn't deserve.


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#9 Goliath

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Posted 02 March 2018 - 06:07 PM

AGREE WHOLHEARTEDLY

 

Decided to take a small bite as a gamble.. lets see how it rolls!


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#10 Goliath

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Posted 02 March 2018 - 06:05 PM

Anyone an idea why Pan African Resources dropped so much lately? :huh:


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#11 Bullhunter

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Posted 15 February 2018 - 12:57 PM

Orion Minerals ORN, see link for lots of info on this potential baggger.

 

https://stockhead.co...rican-explorer/

AGREE WHOLHEARTEDLY


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#12 Dusty Mountain

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 09:35 AM

Orion Minerals ORN, see link for lots of info on this potential baggger.

 

https://stockhead.co...rican-explorer/


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#13 Bullhunter

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 11:08 PM

The case for Insimbi (ISB):

 

ISB trades in ferrous and nonferrous metals, collecting and sorting iron and steel as well as aluminium, copper, zinc, stainless steel, lead, nickel, brass, tin and bronze.Exports account for more than 65% of the scrap-recovery revenue.

 

In 2015 Insimbi made an important move in diversifying operations by acquiring Polydrum, a blow-moulding business that manufactures plastic containers for the chemical, agricultural and food industries.

But the real game-changer came late IN 2016 when scrap-metal specialist Amalgamated Metals Recycling (AMR) was acquired by Insimbi in a R284m transaction.

The AMR deal terms comprised a R200m cash payment to the vendors with R100m funded by senior debt and the balance of R100m funded by a placement of Insimbi shares. The vendors were also be issued 50m new Insimbi shares at 100c/share . Another R34m cash payment will be made for the associated AMR property.

The deal was struck on a trailing earnings multiple of less than six times and earnings before interest and tax of only three and a half times. Even if net profit this year falls back to the R40m posted in the 2014 financial year, Insimbi would have acquired AMR — which has stretched its operating margins from 2.84% to almost 4.5% in the past three years — on a forward earnings multiple of seven times.

A recent investor presentation by Insimbi showed that AMR generated R1.94bn in the year to end-February 2016 with operating profits coming in at R85m on a margin of around 4.5%. Net profits for the period were R53.5m.

Insimbi says there is operational leeway, with smelter capacity utilisation in the group set to be increased. An increase in exports could also help fatten margins with offshore sales attracting a 20% premium over local sales.

If AMR’s year to end-February results are taken into account then Insimbi becomes a R3bn/year revenue business with an after-tax profit of R80m. In other words, new-look Insimbi should be capable of generating around 20c/share — perhaps 25c/share in a strong year — in the new financial year. The interim results for the 6 months ending August 2017 demonstrates that ISBis well on its way to achieving this. Dividend was up 100%.

 

At the current R1.15 ISB is trading at a PE of 4.8

 

Comments from the CEO with respect to the interim results:

 

The first half of FY18 has been satisfactory and in particular, the second quarter, was outstanding. 

The conclusion of the Amalgamated Metal Group Holdings ("AMGH") transaction at the end of last year is 
now contributing positively to all aspects of the business. In the final results for 2017, we were 
only able to include two months of the AMGH trading in Insimbi's consolidated results. We are happy 
to confirm that this business has met and exceeded our expectations as at the time of making the 
acquisition. The integration has been seamless and the synergies are being exploited beyond 
anticipation. From a commercial perspective, the AMGH transaction was concluded when Copper was at 
$4400pmt while it is approximately $6600pmt at the time of writing. Aluminium, chrome and iron ore 
prices have shown a significant upward trend since the last Insimbi report and seem to be recovering 
on the back of strong global demand. 


Edited by Bullhunter, 10 January 2018 - 11:11 PM.

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#14 Trader1

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Posted 21 November 2017 - 04:44 PM

What's the next ten bagger?


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#15 Trader1

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Posted 28 June 2017 - 12:47 PM

Just watch TORRE. Up 8% today


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#16 Dusty Mountain

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Posted 07 June 2017 - 03:41 PM

Waiting in anticipation!!!

 

"Tawana and AMAL are in the advanced stages of completing a feasibility study with off-take pricing, metallurgical and process engineering aspects of the study completed, and the mining engineering and infrastructure capital costs nearing completion. The results of the study are expected to be released within two weeks."

So looks like we are just waiting for the mining engineering and infrastructure capital costs to be completed. I think Primero has completed their bit of the feasibility study.

From their website: http://www.primero.com.au/minerals/
603348-263bbd07ad4faacf6616f745329145f2. 


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#17 PlatinumWealth.co.za

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Posted 22 March 2017 - 08:58 AM

Bring on KAP


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#18 SoleTrader

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Posted 21 March 2017 - 08:03 PM

Any thoughts on Purple and Wescoal?
why has Purple seen such a pull-back?

because Barnes is more concerned about the Post Office than about his business.
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#19 Sugafoot

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Posted 15 March 2017 - 03:06 PM

Any thoughts on Purple and Wescoal?
why has Purple seen such a pull-back?
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#20 tyron1987

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Posted 28 February 2017 - 02:22 PM

The volume is 42k ... not really big value buyers - also the value traded is very low 

Value Traded R 124 469.43

9 trades made today .

Yes but I was talking about the buyer @ 255k FGL shares @ 2,70 - Meaning there is some good interest coming back into FGL, after a severely oversold position


Edited by tyron1987, 28 February 2017 - 02:23 PM.

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