Long term portfolio.

Couple days does not make a trend...

My sense is that the adjustment in expectations to Uncle Ben's comments and the fear around Chinese credit is winding down and we should therefore begin to see a return to lower volatility.

Should we trend up from here and look back in a couple weeks, the S&P 3 year chart will reflect this recent activity as a pretty healthy correction and not dissimilar to the smaller of the two in 2011 (November) and the two in 2012 (April and October). In fact, of these 4, this latest is the smallest in % terms (if complete). Although looking at the chart, we could see further downward pressure all the way to the 200sma is possible.

Macroeconomically, the US is picking up steam, though not enough for rapid withdrawal of QE.

Japan is pumping huge liquidity in to the market.

Europe's monetary policy will remain loose until a proper turn around is apparant, and that is well off.

Africa (ex-SA) is growing solidly.

The BRIC countries are slowing but still growing at a very healthy clip.

Domestically is where we have some problems. Worse case we could drift into a recession, best case we continue to muddle along. Unsecured lending will continue to drag on domestic consumption for awhile. Who knows what the Mandela factor will produce. Labour unrest could spark at a moment's notice.

If I take all these factors into consideration I'm still bullish but am sticking to companies generating good quality earnings and ideally from a diversified geography, with a fair % ex-SA.

 SP500 3yr June13.PNG   53.14KB   39 downloads

Why is everybody so upset regards to China?  7 - 7.5% growth is still pretty darn good for the 2nd biggest economy in the world.  

Bloody right HB! Couldn't agree more. Some perspective is what's called for.

BBW, sorry to burst your bubble but I wouldn't take ol Jimbo too seriously. I lived many years in the US and investors and traders with any decent memory know very well that he is a market manipulator. Google Cramer and Fraud and read some of the articles. In particular watch Jon Stewart rip him apart

Jim Cramer is a nutcase.

Some interesting thoughts, and stocks, from Cramer (yesterday):

 

Markets are down this morning following China's worst day of trading in four years. The credit concerns in 

China have spread to other global markets and the turmoil continued in emerging markets overnight. Obviously, 

it bears watching very closely, but China's new economic and monetary policies are by design -- they are trying 

to grow at a 7% to 7.5% "sustainable" level and not the boom/bust scenario seen over the last several decades. 

These are unchartered waters, so the volatility in these markets is understandable.

We expect liquidity injections to continue at small levels and, if necessary, they have ample tools to stem a crisis 

-- including $3 trillion in reserves. In the U.S., the discussion continues to surround the Federal Reserve and 

potential for the removal of QE and the backup in bond yields; the 10-year note is now at 2.6%, which is the 

highest in more than two years. We believe the Fed will only taper QE as economic data improves (it raised 

GDP and employment growth and reduced its inflation expectation).

First, we are all rooting for the U.S. economy to finally grow again after five difficult years, and this will lead to 

better corporate profits. Second, the Fed will be gradual and will not change the Fed Fund rate until 2015 (even 

as futures are pricing in a tightening already). But we've said we expect volatility to continue and we reiterate 

this point, especially since we have a few weeks until earnings are reported (Alcoa (AA:NYSE) officially kicks 

off on July 8), which we expect to be solid.

We've had a higher level of cash in the portfolio than usual and we'll look to pick at high-quality stocks (widescale buys) with good balance sheets that tilt toward cyclicals and benefit from the U.S. economic recovery. For 

instance, regional banks Wells Fargo (WFC:NYSE) and KeyCorp ( KEY:NYSE); select technology Facebook 

(FB:NASDAQ) and eBay (EBAY:NASDAQ); industrials Eaton (ETN:NYSE) and GE (GE:NYSE); consumer 

Costco (COST:NASDAQ) and TJX Cos. (TJX:NYSE). We'll also continue to watch some of the defensive 

stocks as they come down, such as Procter & Gamble (PG:NYSE), Philip Morris (PM:NYSE) and General 

Mills (GIS:NYSE).

We continue to like the themes we've been supporting all year: housing/banks (especially with the steeper yield 

curve); autos (comfortably above a 15 million seasonally adjusted annual rate with credit easing and 

replacement story strong); aerospace (production backlogs north of seven years); trucks (NAFTA and ACT data 

continue to show month-over-month improvement and the strong replacement cycle story and old age of the 

fleet); and consumer (benefitting from housing and the job recovery).

We also like the reflation story in Japan, with $1.4 trillion in stimulus programs, $768 billion a month in bond 

purchases and $100 billion in public infrastructure spending

Why is everybody so upset regards to China?  7 - 7.5% growth is still pretty darn good for the 2nd biggest economy in the world.  

Some interesting thoughts, and stocks, from Cramer (yesterday):

 

Markets are down this morning following China's worst day of trading in four years. The credit concerns in 

China have spread to other global markets and the turmoil continued in emerging markets overnight. Obviously, 

it bears watching very closely, but China's new economic and monetary policies are by design -- they are trying 

to grow at a 7% to 7.5% "sustainable" level and not the boom/bust scenario seen over the last several decades. 

These are unchartered waters, so the volatility in these markets is understandable.

We expect liquidity injections to continue at small levels and, if necessary, they have ample tools to stem a crisis 

-- including $3 trillion in reserves. In the U.S., the discussion continues to surround the Federal Reserve and 

potential for the removal of QE and the backup in bond yields; the 10-year note is now at 2.6%, which is the 

highest in more than two years. We believe the Fed will only taper QE as economic data improves (it raised 

GDP and employment growth and reduced its inflation expectation).

First, we are all rooting for the U.S. economy to finally grow again after five difficult years, and this will lead to 

better corporate profits. Second, the Fed will be gradual and will not change the Fed Fund rate until 2015 (even 

as futures are pricing in a tightening already). But we've said we expect volatility to continue and we reiterate 

this point, especially since we have a few weeks until earnings are reported (Alcoa (AA:NYSE) officially kicks 

off on July 8), which we expect to be solid.

We've had a higher level of cash in the portfolio than usual and we'll look to pick at high-quality stocks (widescale buys) with good balance sheets that tilt toward cyclicals and benefit from the U.S. economic recovery. For 

instance, regional banks Wells Fargo (WFC:NYSE) and KeyCorp ( KEY:NYSE); select technology Facebook 

(FB:NASDAQ) and eBay (EBAY:NASDAQ); industrials Eaton (ETN:NYSE) and GE (GE:NYSE); consumer 

Costco (COST:NASDAQ) and TJX Cos. (TJX:NYSE). We'll also continue to watch some of the defensive 

stocks as they come down, such as Procter & Gamble (PG:NYSE), Philip Morris (PM:NYSE) and General 

Mills (GIS:NYSE).

We continue to like the themes we've been supporting all year: housing/banks (especially with the steeper yield 

curve); autos (comfortably above a 15 million seasonally adjusted annual rate with credit easing and 

replacement story strong); aerospace (production backlogs north of seven years); trucks (NAFTA and ACT data 

continue to show month-over-month improvement and the strong replacement cycle story and old age of the 

fleet); and consumer (benefitting from housing and the job recovery).

We also like the reflation story in Japan, with $1.4 trillion in stimulus programs, $768 billion a month in bond 

purchases and $100 billion in public infrastructure spending

BBW, sorry to burst your bubble but I wouldn't take ol Jimbo too seriously. I lived many years in the US and investors and traders with any decent memory know very well that he is a market manipulator. Google Cramer and Fraud and read some of the articles. In particular watch Jon Stewart rip him apart

No  CML...why ?

I am trading it in my short term so I thought i rather leave it out of my LT

I'm looking for one more share... PIK appeals to me but their trend is all down

No  CML...why ?

My Long term portfolio, all purchased today:

CPL

GRT

MDC

NPN

VOD

 

Equal Weightings of all

and 50% cash

I'm looking for one more share... PIK appeals to me but their trend is all down

My Long term portfolio, all purchased today:

CPL

GRT

MDC

NPN

VOD

Equal Weightings of all

and 50% cash

Edited by yusufm1, 25 June 2013 - 02:04 PM.

Yusuf buy SAB??? Get real!!

For Sure HDB

No lose. You buy, it goes up, you win.

It drops, you drink it, it goes up, you win

if VOD breaks 100 will add....not so sure we'll see it but yes...watching

 

by no means a rand hedge but a "buy" nevertheless

bad fall yesterday LDT was a couple of days ago (21st I think), but still....

I bought some Naspers this morning after their results. I'll check out the other two now...

Might be worth seeing if you qualify for SOLBE1...seems to be a great deal.

I really appreciate the help guys 

if VOD breaks 100 will add....not so sure we'll see it but yes...watching

by no means a rand hedge but a "buy" nevertheless

Edited by delta66, 25 June 2013 - 12:07 PM.

Sasol, Naspers, BHP.

I bought some Naspers this morning after their results. I'll check out the other two now...

Ok let me rephrase. Anything except SAB and BATS, but I see where you coming from 

Sasol, Naspers, BHP.

Yusuf buy SAB??? Get real!!

Ok let me rephrase. Anything except SAB and BATS, but I see where you coming from 

Yusuf buy SAB??? Get real!!

There can be only 1

SAB - both defensive and a hedge