814 replies to this topic

[Barny]

I know it's a long term portfolio and perhaps i shouldn't watch it as closely as I do but I find the numbers interesting!

 

So my new interest is volatility. Perhaps I can learn something from someone here about how volatility is really measured but this month struck me as abnormal in the amount of movement on my portfolio (no not in one direction, fortunately or unfortunately). So I decided to make up my own volatility measurement, month to month for the last year. Quite simpy I took my portfolio's loss or gain of each day and added those values up regardless if they were +ve or -ve. That would give me the monthly movement. I divided it into the value of the entire portfolio and end up with a percentage or my 'volatility' figure.

 

Well I was way right, this month is off the charts! And it's not over yet. Over the last year the 'volatility' on my portfolio ranged quite consisitently between 8% and 15%.

To close on Friday i.e. still 7 working days to go, my 'volatility' for April is already at 17%, that means I'm heading for over 22% movement this month. Almost a quarter of my portfolio. Interesting to me anyway. Wish it was all UP!

 

Figures like that really make day trading a temptation.

[orca]

OCE(Oceana) looking strong with their unaudited statement, in a nutshell.....basic earnings per share and basic headline earnings per share for the six months ended 31 March 2013 are expected to be between 40% and 45% higher than the comparative figures for the six months ended 31 March 2012.

 

doubled up a while back and expecting strong growth on this one as part of my LT portfolio.

Shareholders are advised that eps and heps for six months to 31^st March will be 40-45% higher. This is certainly a surprise as against consensus, clearly the knee-jerk response (of a relatively minor share price gain) suggests a lot of good news was discounted into the price. Why such a good result? Well we would expect a weaker rand to help somewhat in giving pricing power, locally and in export market. However, it’s important to bear in mind that a very big cost input is fuel for fishing, which is also $ denominated, although at least oil prices have been steady to a tad softer in recent times. One of the biggest pluses for fisherman is that we’re in an El Nino cycle (refer to WeatherSA) which tends to result in cooler ocean currents and therefore better zooplankton biomasses. We like the dividend paying aspects of the stock, but all things considered, prospects are priced in. FULLY VALUED. The Company expects interims to be released on about Thursday, 9 May 2013.

[delta66]

OCE(Oceana) looking strong with their unaudited statement, in a nutshell.....basic earnings per share and basic headline earnings per share for the six months ended 31 March 2013 are expected to be between 40% and 45% higher than the comparative figures for the six months ended 31 March 2012.

 

doubled up a while back and expecting strong growth on this one as part of my LT portfolio.

[orca]

this must be the reason
http://www.moneyweb....drop-ever-in-q1

Had I read this article yesterday, I would have sold PNC. Then again, it has been known for awhile that pc sales have dropped due to tablets. Will have to keep an eye on it. Thanks.

[saint1]

this must be the reason

http://www.moneyweb....drop-ever-in-q1

[orca]

Good grief. What happened to PNC today? Down big time for no reason. Markets up but she down.

[orca]

MTA has gone ex divi and unfortunately it did so during this negative market sentiment sending it lower than it normally does. Not concerned though as it still is a great stock to have long term. ATM this is my favorite for good long term gains.Looking at 60% pa at least.

[orca]

big volumes trading today, close to R50MIL at last glance, hoping to see a positive unaudited interim issued before 17 May as that will undoubtebly push it over R50

Yes. Mostly selling. R55MIL. Thread gone to the new CML thread.

[orca]

Haven't checked the price since it started retracting back to the SMA early afternoon. Will check it out later as some trades are done after hours on it till 17 50pm. Don't know why this is but it happens and could make as much as 1% in one trade.

[delta66]

Well. There's the bounce. You can see that in March it tried to correct twice but the strong demand on dips pushed it back above the SMA.
Volumes have been much higher than normal since the last AUM CML.jpgreport and of course the weak ZAR.

big volumes trading today, close to R50MIL at last glance, hoping to see a positive unaudited interim issued before 17 May as that will undoubtebly push it over R50

[orca]

Well. There's the bounce. You can see that in March it tried to correct twice but the strong demand on dips pushed it back above the SMA.
Volumes have been much higher than normal since the last AUM  CML.jpg   40.32KB   493 downloadsreport and of course the weak ZAR.

[Goliath]

Long term bets:

Brait SE (Seen good growth but think still some more to come)

Afrocentric (Done well in recent months and think it will just keep going)

Redefine (After the Fountainhead deal I'm liking this one!)

 

Still deciding:

Transaction Capital

[gamma]

Orca, CML has had such a good run its only normal for it to drift a bit. Seen it around 19-20 and then 29-30...

I don't foresee any big dip given the fact the results are around the corner

[Safrican]

Can't find this thread so starting a new one.
My concern is with CML. It normally bounces off it's uptrending 20SMA. Now this SMA is starting to trend down and the price is hugging it downwards. This to me looks bad and could collapse very soon and send it to 4500 area and then to 4200. These 2 levels I got from my brokers website as they have had a short recommendation on it for 4 weeks now.
If it doesn't bounce soon then I will sit with a big loss for some time to come.

 

 

I have been waiting for you to mention this as I have bought into CML and always appreciate your views on this one.

 

Hope it rebounds soon.

[orca]

Can't find this thread so starting a new one.
My concern is with CML. It normally bounces off it's uptrending 20SMA. Now this SMA is starting to trend down and the price is hugging it downwards. This to me looks bad and could collapse very soon and send it to 4500 area and then to 4200. These 2 levels I got from my brokers website as they have had a short recommendation on it for 4 weeks now.
If it doesn't bounce soon then I will sit with a big loss for some time to come.