814 replies to this topic

[gamma]

Got klapped yesterday. Seems to be recovering now. I'm looking for a good rand hedge though...Any tips guys?

 

There can be only 1

SAB - both defensive and a hedge

Edited by gamma, 25 June 2013 - 10:56 AM.

[yusufm]

I think your safe with both, but given current prices, closeness to NAV and P/E ratio's together with the Fountainhead deal I went with Redefine

Got klapped yesterday. Seems to be recovering now. I'm looking for a good rand hedge though...Any tips guys?

[delta66]

indeed gamma, volatility can be a friend  

added more OCE yesterday and looking to add more PNC today

[gamma]

Traders and Investors have really short term memories. Wasn't it just a year or so ago that the Europe was about to implode and the world would turn to ****? 

That was volatility!

[gamma]

seen quite a substantial slide on my overall LT portfolio..i'm slowly moving from riskier short term to the higher yielding instruments

in for a rough correction and judging by today's action,,no sight of bottom yet   

 

 

Yep, but would be a mistake selling in to a falling market. If you believe in the companies you own then hang tight. my 2c 

[JJBen]

Somebody on the forum had a target price for AGL well below R200 (too lazy to look). I asked my broker's opinion.

They are sellers atm. They are not waiting for R160. Would you buy at that level? No was the reply.

 

Like HDB said, we are entering a difficult 12-24 months in the R of SA.

 

Like in 2008, Cash Is King.

 

 

[grumpy old man]

seen quite a substantial slide on my overall LT portfolio..i'm slowly moving from riskier short term to the higher yielding instruments

in for a rough correction and judging by today's action,,no sight of bottom yet   

 

Yep LT portfolio is looking pretty battered and bruised at the moment. The bears rule and we will just have to be patient and hope we see a turnaround soon.

[delta66]

seen quite a substantial slide on my overall LT portfolio..i'm slowly moving from riskier short term to the higher yielding instruments

in for a rough correction and judging by today's action,,no sight of bottom yet   

[BBW]

Eish! Holding on to my LONG term CFD Investment portfolio (that resembles a unit trust at the moment) is NO fun currently! Hope I'll have at least some nails left come September/October. If it wasn't for my ALSI shorts.... Got hope though; the ZAR is steadily becoming stronger; must mean the foreigners are buying?

[JakeSpade]

get in on BIK before friday, you might want to criticize now but they are set for a very solid set of results.

[Goliath]

i still prefer GRT more than RDF. But those 2 are my major property holdings

I think your safe with both, but given current prices, closeness to NAV and P/E ratio's together with the Fountainhead deal I went with Redefine

[yusufm]

Added some Redefine at current levels!

i still prefer GRT more than RDF. But those 2 are my major property holdings

[Ninja]

things are looking cheap.... will they bounce or will they get cheaper???

[Goliath]

Added some Redefine at current levels!

[delta66]

added again to OCE @8343

[BBW]

HDB, you are forgetting one important statistic and that is that life for the majority of South Africans was worse 20 years ago than it is now. (the only people that disagree with this statement are the ones that say black people were better off oppressed under apartheid! - I sincerely hope you are not one of those...)

 

I lived in many parts of the world and everywhere has its problems. Brazil has terrible crime, China has awful human rights issues, the europeans are struggling with an uncompetitive economy due to years of poor policy, the americans can't afford healthcare... We don't have a monopoly on stupid politicians...your Avatar seems to prove my point!

 

I'm not saying I know what will happen. You might be proved right for all we know. All I'm saying is your fear appears irrational and not founded on a clear economic argument given the facts of the day. 

LIFE for most black South Africans might not be worse than it was 20 years ago, but living conditions for the POOR (black people and other) are much worse.

Edited by BBW, 21 June 2013 - 01:49 PM.

[alexander]

Gamma jokes aside, from an economic point of view, I still maintain going 12 months forward our future looks bleak and the market will follow suit!! However only one thing is saving this market now is the liquidity. Once this dries up and it will once QE goes, nothing will hold it up!!!

Well the one thing was for sure that the QE wasn't for ever. South Africa itself is entering a very difficult time period.


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[HDB]

Gamma jokes aside, from an economic point of view, I still maintain going 12 months forward our future looks bleak and the market will follow suit!! However only one thing is saving this market now is the liquidity. Once this dries up and it will once QE goes, nothing will hold it up!!!

[gamma]

Ok Gamma, my reply with tongue in cheek and a bit funny!! 

 

Enjoy...

 

 

HERE ANC’s LIST OF ACHIEVEMENTS ... READS LIKE A FAIRY TALE

• 19 years of ANC rule unemployment has gone up by 60% !!
• South Africa is now the rape capital of the world
• After 19 years of ANC rule we have achieved the dubious distinction of being 140th on a world list of 144 countries for our education department.
• We are officially the country where the most hijacks take place
• We are also on the top ten list for the most murders
• In 19 years the rand/dollar has gone from R3.41 to R10.00
• During ANC rule the petrol price has gone from R1.73 to R12.83 per liter
• In 19 years our defense force has gone from being the iron fist of Africa to a laughing stock that can’t defend Disneyland from an invasion of fluffy toys
• On the list of most corrupt governments they have given us a special place right at the top
• In 19 years we have ten times more people in squatter camps and 1000% more illegal immigrants
• In 19 years our roads, railways, military, police, municipal services, old age homes, hospitals and orphanages have literally fallen apart and are worth nothing anymore
• No other country on the planet has more convicted criminals in their parliament than us!!
• 25% of all South African school girls are HIV+
• Our school girls had 100 000 abortions last year and those are only the legal ones!!

 

 

HDB, you are forgetting one important statistic and that is that life for the majority of South Africans was worse 20 years ago than it is now. (the only people that disagree with this statement are the ones that say black people were better off oppressed under apartheid! - I sincerely hope you are not one of those...)

 

I lived in many parts of the world and everywhere has its problems. Brazil has terrible crime, China has awful human rights issues, the europeans are struggling with an uncompetitive economy due to years of poor policy, the americans can't afford healthcare... We don't have a monopoly on stupid politicians...your Avatar seems to prove my point!

 

I'm not saying I know what will happen. You might be proved right for all we know. All I'm saying is your fear appears irrational and not founded on a clear economic argument given the facts of the day. 

[HDB]

Yup, well time will tell and perhaps you will be proved right but I don't see a major crash, a correction sure, but not a crash (although maybe this is a matter of definition). Here's why:

 

I'm not disputing SA's economy is a laggard or not suffering due to poor leadership, but there are a couple factors that are different to the big downturns in the US and Europe.

 

1. The emerging middle class in SA is a driver, a big one, that doesn't exist in the aforementioned economies.

2. North of our border, many if not most, of the African economies are growing very well and that growth is only at the beginning of a long term cycle (and by long I mean 15-30 year cycle). SA companies that are exploiting that growth will benefit despite what happens in SA.

3. The weak rand will drive exports which will add some impetus to GDP growth. (Yes I know imports and inflation is a watch-out on the flip side of this coin) - but already recent data showed a surprise to the upside for precisely these reasons.

Do you really think an acceleration in US GDP, a turnaround in the Europe (our biggest trading partner) and a ticking along of BRIC countries is a recipe for a crash?

Given the above...the MTNs, SABs, BATs and their ilk...a collapse? really? Can you see demand disappearing for any length of time?

 

Yes sure, some stocks could take a big hit short term, including our pet CML but IMO there is enough quality/defensives that should benefit from the macro factors I point out above to more than cover underperformance elsewhere.

 

Of course something unexpected could always hit us in the face but I'm not hearing a clear argument from anyone for exactly what's so new that is driving it. Unsecured lending? maybe..though this hardly seems a big enough factor. Probably the biggest risk, albeit low, is a Chinese slow down/collapse. That will take us..and pretty much everyone else down with it.

 

So lets see..

 

Ok Gamma, my reply with tongue in cheek and a bit funny!! 

 

Enjoy...

 

 

HERE ANC’s LIST OF ACHIEVEMENTS ... READS LIKE A FAIRY TALE

• 19 years of ANC rule unemployment has gone up by 60% !!
• South Africa is now the rape capital of the world
• After 19 years of ANC rule we have achieved the dubious distinction of being 140th on a world list of 144 countries for our education department.
• We are officially the country where the most hijacks take place
• We are also on the top ten list for the most murders
• In 19 years the rand/dollar has gone from R3.41 to R10.00
• During ANC rule the petrol price has gone from R1.73 to R12.83 per liter
• In 19 years our defense force has gone from being the iron fist of Africa to a laughing stock that can’t defend Disneyland from an invasion of fluffy toys
• On the list of most corrupt governments they have given us a special place right at the top
• In 19 years we have ten times more people in squatter camps and 1000% more illegal immigrants
• In 19 years our roads, railways, military, police, municipal services, old age homes, hospitals and orphanages have literally fallen apart and are worth nothing anymore
• No other country on the planet has more convicted criminals in their parliament than us!!
• 25% of all South African school girls are HIV+
• Our school girls had 100 000 abortions last year and those are only the legal ones!!