35854 replies to this topic

[Argento]

All the shorts out there. Are you still holding?

 

I just see blue on IG.

Market doesn't fall in a straight line....she will zig zag down!

 

This early morning rally actually bearish...clever money trades at the close!

 

A

Edited by Argento, 07 January 2014 - 09:27 AM.

[fabes]

A, what's your take on today's action?

[Lamarje]

All the shorts out there. Are you still holding?

 

I just see blue on IG.

I'm out....

[fabes]

All the shorts out there. Are you still holding?

 

I just see blue on IG.

[OceanWalz]

Nikkei just made a u-turn like an over-the-limit driver on Rivonia! And Billies is down > 1% now.

Ha Ha 

[AJS]

Nikkei just made a u-turn like an over-the-limit driver on Rivonia! And Billies is down > 1% now.

Edited by AJS, 07 January 2014 - 07:08 AM.

[AJS]

Looks like we came to rest on the red dotted line.  41300.

 

I see 40800 and then maybe 40300 as other targets.  5H MACD cross in the making as well.

 

Just my attempt at drawing some lines and making something of it

Attached Files

•  South Africa 40 Futures(Daily)20140107065106.png   50.61KB   16 downloads

[Sunesis]

Bought Dow 16465 stop 16375 take profit open

[Sunesis]

I don't trade SA40 anymore.

 

I will only share international indices here.

 

Buy Dow 16463    TP16560

Buy Dax 9420       TP9560

Closed my trades. Caution for US open.

 

Will buy if we dip.

 

Funny i made money buying DAX and Dow while SA traders made money selling SA40

[Argento]

Re: the Taper talk. The reduction from $85Bil to $75Bil/month will only influence the yield curve of the T-Bonds. The reduction of $10Bil/month does not mean that we have a withdrawal of that amount of money from trading markets. The "easy money" available is in the form of cheap (borrowed) money from banks, NOT from the FED pumping directly into the markets. So the partial reduction in bond buy-backs will put pressure on the overnight rates (LIBOR, etc.). If/when the US economy recovers enough, traders and big banks won't mind paying an extra 50-100 basis points on borrowed money. Especially if you can chase yields above 6%/a.

 

Everyone is waiting for the major pull-back (10-20%) in world equities. That worries me. Maybe this anticipated down move is TOO obvious?

 

I think we will see the S&P500 grind down to around 1720, followed by sideways movement and a close around 1950 come year end. My 2c...

Remember, QE3 will be tapered by $10Bil with every FED meeting/month so once it ends around September this year it will definitely have an impact on the markets (go and look what happend when QE1/2 ended), especially us as a lot is dumped into EM's due to the low yields...

 

Not that it will end the secular bullmarket but will be a significant correction...second half of 2014 will be bad for equities...just my take!

 

First time since 2008 that equities started in negative territory...normally a reflection on a negative year!

 

A

Edited by Argento, 06 January 2014 - 04:16 PM.

[JJBen]

Re: the Taper talk. The reduction from $85Bil to $75Bil/month will only influence the yield curve of the T-Bonds. The reduction of $10Bil/month does not mean that we have a withdrawal of that amount of money from trading markets. The "easy money" available is in the form of cheap (borrowed) money from banks, NOT from the FED pumping directly into the markets. So the partial reduction in bond buy-backs will put pressure on the overnight rates (LIBOR, etc.). If/when the US economy recovers enough, traders and big banks won't mind paying an extra 50-100 basis points on borrowed money. Especially if you can chase yields above 6%/a.

 

Everyone is waiting for the major pull-back (10-20%) in world equities. That worries me. Maybe this anticipated down move is TOO obvious?

 

I think we will see the S&P500 grind down to around 1720, followed by sideways movement and a close around 1950 come year end. My 2c...

 

[Lamarje]

looking to add a short at 41100 to keep over night

 

On 30min charge still looks bearish.

[Beorn]

I have it as starting January 2014...

 

Thanks.

[AJS]

Can anyone tell me, as of when will the FED start to taper to 75 bil?

Thanks in advance.

 

I have it as starting January 2014...

Edited by AJS, 06 January 2014 - 03:31 PM.

[Beorn]

Can anyone tell me, as of when will the FED start to taper to 75 bil?

Thanks in advance.

[AJS]

Anyone joining me to watch the grass grow outside?  

[Argento]

No crash.

 

We just need one big correction maybe 15-20%

It might come end of March when Japan increase their consumption tax.

The low of that correction will be the start of a secular bull trend into 2017.

 

Dow still needs to touch 20 000

S&P needs to touch 2000

 

 

Just my 2c

End of March the US should see their primary wave 4 down, with the TOP40 remaining much stronger (due to rand) as we are weaker now!

 

Everytime a QE ends (QE3 to end in September) the markets start diving south bigtime 1/2 months earlier...should repeat itself this year!But is QE4 coming...as we are in a secular bullmarket afterall??

 

But as you said...just my 2c too!

 

A

[Sunesis]

Think the bears are going to take the stairs for a change in this leg down...

 

US also looking bearish for the next 2 weeks!

 

Once done TOP40 should start her primary wave 5 up into July for that possible QE3 end bullphase top...then crash time folks!  

 

A

No crash.

 

We just need one big correction maybe 15-20%

It might come end of March when Japan increase their consumption tax.

The low of that correction will be the start of a secular bull trend into 2017.

 

Dow still needs to touch 20 000

S&P needs to touch 2000

 

 

Just my 2c

[Argento]

seems to be giving some back...

Think the bears are going to take the stairs for a change in this leg down...

 

US also looking bearish for the next 2 weeks!

 

Once done TOP40 should start her primary wave 5 up into July for that possible QE3 end bullphase top...then crash time folks!  

 

A

[davidp13]

I will cut my shorts for some green if she reclaims and holds 41150 (spot)

 

Will then look for another short entry higher up.

 

K

seems to be giving some back...