35854 replies to this topic

[Casenova]

Last week Friday i managed to net 618 points with 2 winning trades.

 

(The statistics in this post is purely for making examples)

 

I was reading this forum and felt that the members, much like myself, was unsure about the direction its going to take. This got me thinking, what if we, as a forum, posted some of our trading statistics here. I am not saying that we should start posting our account balances here, because we should not care about how many millions of Rands Argento, for example, has.

 

Surely, if you knew that i, for example, have an average annual account growth rate of 23.1% over the last three years, and that out of 10 trades 5.7 is successful and 4.3 not, then we will be able to attach a more objective value to each of our opinions, not true?

 

We are 'numbers' people, what do you think? Perhaps i am just bored out of my bloody mind with this 47160 - 45050 sideways channel.

[mx125]

PMI China figures can come in at below 50 tomorrow according to article on Sharenet. In the past this had a big influence on the Alsi.

[delta66]

Buy order filled 46150 (futures)

 

good call..nicely done!

[Argento]

Nice EW theory at it's best.<br />Not playing out, but EW cant be wrong, so we had the count wrong?<br /><br />No offense to anyone, just my observation.<br /><br />

Never try to rush EW, IMO this can actually be a very bullish move (know it looks bearish), she is flirting with that bullish uptrend line and until broken this thing can very well shoot back up!

 

Waiting for a daily reversal to get in long, might play around with the 46000 support level first!

 

I'm with V on his count!

 

A

[HDB]

Buy order filled 46150 (futures)

Sure 46000 looks attractive too

backside from red to blue!!

[Vertebrae]

Buy order filled 46150 (futures)

Sure 46000 looks attractive too

[grantmu]

pro real time not talking to IG today, 10 min delay

[Vertebrae]

V

 

Do I understand right  that if 1991 breaks on SPX then the correction wave has began?

 

SPX got support coming in @ 2000.

I read Caldaro to suggest below 1991 cover. Below 1905 confirms Primary IV underway, drop longs.

My intention is see the 5th of the 5th to its natural completion.

Meanwhile the opportunity for broken toes increases for those bears with no dancing shoes.

Buy order filled @ 46250 (futures)

[Casenova]

V

 

Do I understand right  that if 1991 breaks on SPX then the correction wave has began?

Today we are going to shake hands with Mr. Volatility

Edited by Casenova, 22 September 2014 - 08:48 AM.

[Ettas]

Agree. Looking for a Fib bounce later today / early tomorrow.

Caldaro also more bullish now, moves SPX top to 2085

V

 

Do I understand right  that if 1991 breaks on SPX then the correction wave has began?

[Vertebrae]

Caldaro never wrong for very long.

But whereas he can still count (i) as 5 like he did already, we could not do that and still we can't. And so he be right now.

SPX bounce from Friday ATH leads SPX into 2nd of 3rd.

We are now waiting. SPX got plenty room for a 2nd, we got room here to jive too. Maybe short term cover prudent.

 

 

I am going to look at buying the dip, we are too close to support levels not to.

 

Agree. Looking for a Fib bounce later today / early tomorrow.

Caldaro also more bullish now, moves SPX top to 2085

[Beorn]

Nice EW theory at it's best.<br />Not playing out, but EW cant be wrong, so we had the count wrong?<br /><br />No offense to anyone, just my observation.<br /><br />

[Casenova]

Caldaro never wrong for very long.

But whereas he can still count (i) as 5 like he did already, we could not do that and still we can't. And so he be right now.

SPX bounce from Friday ATH leads SPX into 2nd of 3rd.

We are now waiting. SPX got plenty room for a 2nd, we got room here to jive too. Maybe short term cover prudent.

I am going to look at buying the dip, we are too close to support levels not to.

[Vertebrae]

looks like S&P levels of 1905 and 1991 is big indicators for where we heading, esp if we go below 1991 soon.....would you agree?

 

Caldaro never wrong for very long.

But whereas he can still count (i) as 5 like he did already, we could not do that and still we can't. And so he be right now.

SPX bounce from Friday ATH leads SPX into 2nd of 3rd.

We are now waiting. SPX got plenty room for a 2nd, we got room here to jive too. Maybe short term cover prudent.

[Casenova]

Today the question to me is simple, Is the upward trend line going to win, or is the sideways channel going to super-cede it? See chart for details.

Attached Files

•  South Africa 40 Cash (ZAR2 Micro Con (-).png   37.81KB   7 downloads

[HDB]

expect more pain on J 210 stocks today!!

 

IN fact alsi top 40 trend support line will be under close scrutiny today...may be under heavy attack from the bears today!!

If the bulls and V dont support it, goodbye Bulls!!

[Mhlato]

The current sideways thing is starting to feel a bit like 2012, and I lost money at an alarming rate that time. this time however I seem to have learned a few new tricks, and I am still able to add to the bank from time to time.

 

This group may have something to do with that, on the other hand the blow ups between the members seems to happen when we are not going in a direction, I would attribute it more to frustration than an actual war, having said that it is sometimes better to clear the air, anger is a difficult thing to deal with as a trader and it comes out in the form of picking a fight on the group. At some point peace and tranquillity will return.

 

When the bulls and the bears settle into the respective camps the world will be round again.

 

G 

 

Sure looks like 2012 again, same situation, Indi up, Resi down.

Attached Files

•  21 Sept 14.png   47.18KB   20 downloads

[grantmu]

The current sideways thing is starting to feel a bit like 2012, and I lost money at an alarming rate that time. this time however I seem to have learned a few new tricks, and I am still able to add to the bank from time to time.

 

This group may have something to do with that, on the other hand the blow ups between the members seems to happen when we are not going in a direction, I would attribute it more to frustration than an actual war, having said that it is sometimes better to clear the air, anger is a difficult thing to deal with as a trader and it comes out in the form of picking a fight on the group. At some point peace and tranquillity will return.

 

When the bulls and the bears settle into the respective camps the world will be round again.

 

G 

[Mhlato]

@ Grant, AJS, Ettas & Delta, it's a pleasure guy's...just glad nobody has called me a F..... idiot

yet 

 

 

 

To share ideas, info and opinions is afterall the reason why we are partisipating here... is it not?

 

And if you disagree with someone, do so with a open mind and a cool head. Once you get emotional about it, you are going to feel it in your pocket (making wrong decisions)

 

I know this is off topic, but i want to share this short story with you. When i was still a youngster my Dad was driving a Chev and our next door neighbor a Ford. His son and me had many arguments about who's dad's car is the fastest till it ended up in a fistfight. Our dad's broke the fight up and then asked us if we still disagree, upen we both said yes Their response to that was THEN WHY THE HELL DID YOU FIGHT... iff it's not solving the dispute?

 

It did not make much sense back then,but today, as an adult, i get much more satisfaction out of it to convince someone of my point of view. Of course, you must also be prepared to accept it if he can proves your point as incorrect.

 

Please guy's, let's try and see if get through tomorrow.. even better, the whole week, without name calling / swearing?

 

@ HDB, as usual i will not make any call's here, but tends to agree with you on the J210. As i said, currently i don't care what happens on other markets, I'll rather focus on the BIG 7 for now.

[HDB]

To all the guy's that keep looking @ the USA & Europe for direction and believe that we have to play catch up to them, look @ the first two charts. (YTD figures in brackets)

 

The third chart will show you why we are still  in a sideway's channel and not following the above mentioned markets

 

I have said it in the past that for the J200 to move strongly in one direction, the J210 & J213 have to pull together, which is evident in the chart.

 

IMHO,for us to brakeout to the top, the J210 needs to get going now (upwards!) and the J213 must stay on course because a pullback there will means we will stay in this channel.

 

So, i am going to whatch those BIG 7 closely this week, they (and the ZAR) will provide direction.

On the law of probabilities and being at 46000 IG cash at moment, i think we have a greater chance of going down to 45000 ( and then even lower) than 47000!!!

I cannot see the J210 going anywhere especially with Fed giving some indication of when interest rates will start going up and some bad numbers out from from China!! Also Friday was a great chance for the FTSE to make new all times highs, and having not done this, i think that high for FTSE will not be tested,,,well at least not for this year!!

 

Just my opinion.... So i will play it daily as i see it, but medium term bearish!!

Edited by HDB, 21 September 2014 - 09:48 PM.