35854 replies to this topic

[delta66]

thanks BC..could be my day to give back some to market. looking for 100p scalp but very limited pos with strategy to average down +- 43580(if it hits that)..thereafter "tight stop"

[bear catcher]

Delta good luck,technically a good trade but risky with Ukraine

[delta66]

sa40 cash 43880 long

 

+edit+ 43874

Edited by delta66, 25 April 2014 - 08:41 AM.

[Shortboy]

http://www.mirror.co...in-fury-3452991

 

Not looking good at all.

Haven't given gold a thought for decades until the last few weeks. China, India...increasing demand, poor outlook for dollar from inflation point of view, angry western and far eastern $ treasury holders, I am starting to think differently about gold and the $ as a reserve currency...could that possibly explain the run up in our golds?.....$ going down, not emerging currencies going up?

[farouk]

http://www.mirror.co...in-fury-3452991

 

Not looking good at all.

[farouk]

Russia will respond if its interests in Ukraine are attacked, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said, drawing a parallel with the 2008 Georgian war.

In his interview with Russia Today, Mr Lavrov said it was "quite telling" that Kiev had re-launched its "anti-terrorist" operation in the east on Tuesday during a visit by US Vice-President Joe Biden.

"If our interests, our legitimate interests, the interests of Russians have been attacked directly, like they were in South Ossetia for example, I do not see any other way but to respond in full accordance with international law," Mr Lavrov said.

http://www.bbc.com/n...europe-27124453
 

My opinion its just a matter of time and its inevitable?

 

 

 

Russia has ordered new military exercises on its border with Ukraine in response to an operation by Kiev against pro-Russian separatists.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said Moscow had been "forced to react" after Ukrainian commandos moved on the separatist stronghold of Sloviansk.

http://www.bbc.com/n...europe-27138300

 

Yep prepare for the worst.

 

[OceanWalz]

Hi RusQ, sorry reply so late , back from dinner and my IHS came down but now cant decide if its up or down - you asked about Inverted Head and Shoulders (IHS) its  the bullish opposite of a H&S wh is a bearish pattern - I find IHS has higher predictive probability than the normal H&Shoulders - but no guarantee to either- all you need is a more self righteous 'lebensraum'  noises by Putin and consequences  on "republics" and jitters start in Euro indexes and spread and infect all else suddenly adding fuel to existing H&S patterns and tend to fail IHS patterns -  a sudden (intermediate) peace move will have opposite effect - (this is not going to go away - Russia is on a long term plan on these moves I think )

[delta66]

if ukraine pressure/sentiment subsides then 44300 T40 cash would be my target..dunno!    will grab micro contracts from 43900..

[Shortboy]

Who said we can't go to 45k? Argento has been calling it ever since... Look at it: a channel within a channel within a channel. (or a wedge in a wedge in a channel).  The BB have been narrowing as well - so either way a big move is coming.  Last blow off to put the top in and shake all the stale shorts out? We will see soon enough I suppose.

Hi AJS! I am not saying its going anywhere. I am saying I would prefer it to go down, but that's just my preference, not a recommendation. Every market is made up of millions of preferences.

 

If it goes to 45k that would actually be beneficial to me. I simply want to exercise my right to put another small short position in somewhere near what I hope will be the top. If I am wrong then I pay..

[AJS]

ALSI 1H chart... Inverted H&S formed and target was met. Trading in a channel with potential upside some 250-odd points up to top of channel?

[delta66]

Thanks Delta.

 

RS, who is also unfortunately no longer on this forum, gave clear guidance. Don't play big if you are small - position stop losses with a wide enough range so you don't get taken out too early etc etc. I didn't listen to him....I lost R60k + on 1 trade as a newbie for my arrogance and ignorance.....a lesson well learned. 

 

I do however have a mental block about stop losses. I would far rather put a counter position in place if I am not at the screen....I have found that because markets go up and down on both intraday/week it seems to work out better. 

 

Got tired of stop loss hunters taking me out all the time, especially after hours, so that's my play and seems to be working. Use it, lose it.

 

Good Luck!

thanks for sharing shortboy i play the market with a very similar discipline

[AJS]

Who said we can't go to 45k? Argento has been calling it ever since... Look at it: a channel within a channel within a channel. (or a wedge in a wedge in a channel).  The BB have been narrowing as well - so either way a big move is coming.  Last blow off to put the top in and shake all the stale shorts out? We will see soon enough I suppose.

[Shortboy]

The CCI is a lagging indicator and is still way above 100 on the daily (171) BUT there is slight slight divergence on the 4hours which normally precedes a decline. That divergence is what you are currently pricing in I think. That is why I  refused to go short when we were in the low 43000..Every selloff is always gobbled up at these levels. If there is a stronger divergence on the 4hour tomorrow I add to my  small short position  as well from 44005 and a biggie when she breaks 100 on the dailies. Still trying to find the reason she hunts in pairs though. Tommorrow might be a bloodbath though..43200 is on my radar from the current level at 43990 right now. Apple wont be there tomorrow to save the US and neither will Naspers for us

Hi GymBaby. No one knows anything for sure except that Chubby was up "there" with some of the biggest and most consistent wins I have ever seen on this forum. Personally, I will be looking closely at that daily CCI and not paying too much attention to its detail.

 

Another thing I like to look at is fundamentals (not strictly trader stuff I guess). The S&P500 Shiller PE ratio is now 60% higher than it's 10 year median and only about 15% short of its 1929 high of about 30. I simply prefer to be on the short end of a position than long, not telling or urging others to do so. 

[AJS]

Just read the stock operator hey Argento

 

Ditto that, Jesse Livermore - one of the true greats to ever roam the markets.

[Shortboy]

well said and might i add a great strategy that normally always wins

Thanks Delta.

 

RS, who is also unfortunately no longer on this forum, gave clear guidance. Don't play big if you are small - position stop losses with a wide enough range so you don't get taken out too early etc etc. I didn't listen to him....I lost R60k + on 1 trade as a newbie for my arrogance and ignorance.....a lesson well learned. 

 

I do however have a mental block about stop losses. I would far rather put a counter position in place if I am not at the screen....I have found that because markets go up and down on both intraday/week it seems to work out better. 

 

Got tired of stop loss hunters taking me out all the time, especially after hours, so that's my play and seems to be working. Use it, lose it.

 

Good Luck!

[delta66]

order long at 43900

[delta66]

out at 43920

[Shortboy]

am new here. and obviously have a lot to learn...

an IHS, at what is currently close to tops, is a continuation pattern?

Welcome RusQ. Please do yourself a favour and read Trading Tools & Tactics - Greg Capra as well as Reminiscences of a Stock Operator - Edwin Lefevre. These 2 books, if diligently read, will save you a lot of money and possibly make some for you too.

 

Good Luck!

[delta66]

My learner strategy is to time neither, just be able to sustain the swings that occur daily but with a bias toward one side over a longer time frame.

 

well said and might i add a great strategy that normally always wins

[Shortboy]

I have found through personal pain and experience that when everyone starts talking about kitchen sinks, that's exactly when the Rule Of Mhlato comes into play...The market always proves you wrong....just before it proves you right.

 

Am still holding short positions which are calibrated in IG micro's to allow for a significant increase in ALSI40 if it chooses to go that way, before it becomes an equity account problem. Willing to risk 5% of capital.

 

There are 2 things about markets that we know for sure, especially in the last 2 days. They go up AND they go down. My learner strategy is to time neither, just be able to sustain the swings that occur daily but with a bias toward one side over a longer time frame.

 

Regular occurrences of all time highs are attractive to me, as is Chubby's "bikini top" CCI that is currently playing out.