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ALSI Trades


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#21041 Shortboy

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 09:41 PM

If u going to play short long term at least don't get excited until you have seen the red bikini top on a daily chart - pull up the Commodity Channel index to see those bikini tops and you will see why New Highs always hunt in pairs. SP500 had a FULL gap up on the daily as well..

Great to hear from you Chubby! Thank you!

 

Big difference between short term and long term (trading/investing).

 

For me, S' graph is a great looking leading indicator from a week/month plus point of view. By far, most of my money sits in the long term investment space beyond the influence of stop loss hunters and stock operators. For me, the indicator S posted is very handy.

 

In the trading space (really short term positions like less than a month or so), well, I still have lots to learn and am more interested in scalping than taking a solid position with or against a market for any period beyond a day or so...I don't think I will ever be able to get my head around large daily trading losses as they mount, yet I find no difficulty whatsoever in seeing investment account fluctuations of up to R100k either side occurring because in the long run each of those shares I have a position in was bought for a long term reason, not a quick buck.    

 

In my case, when it comes to trading, then for the moment its exactly like Mhlato says, "the market always proves you wrong...just before it proves you right"

 

Still learning and thankfully, not paying too much for the course.


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#21042 OceanWalz

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 09:40 PM

If u going to play short long term at least don't get excited until you have seen the red bikini top on a daily chart - pull up the Commodity Channel index to see those bikini tops and you will see why New Highs always hunt in pairs. SP500 had a FULL gap up on the daily as well..

any chance of sending a image of such a red bikini top Chubby , ? just so I know exactly what you mean - Thanks


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#21043 Lekkerry

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 09:24 PM

he he  ;)

ek ook gewonder!!! haha


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#21044 OceanWalz

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 09:21 PM

I was hoping for  strong short squeeze on S&P500 at 1883 - did not happen , nor can there be  a shortage of shorts that may need short covering either! so answer is that short cover kick off starts higher , say 1891ish .

but to pass baton to further bull moves from that short cover would require existing Cash to be convinced of the merits of committing to equities from those dizzy heights, without that happening then fall back to 1850 and the bears or consolidation I guess! so my strategy is to play this clear bull momentum, keep my T40F's longs until after short cover and then close and see if we fall back ,  or existing Cash piles into equities.  well that the idea until events or my insight change


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#21045 Shortboy

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 07:38 PM

attachicon.gifcharting.PNG

 

Very interesting chart indeed.

But lets look at what the chart is not telling us.

In the 2 corrections of 2000 and 2007 when debt reached a peak the market made a new high the following month.

I have drawn 2 black lines to show you what the market did after debt peaked.

Simply put it do not pre-empt the drop because if you do then Mr Market Maker will drop your pants.

100% Farouk. The big drops occurred shortly after each of these events - for me they are leading indicators.

 

As a long term holder, the loss of the potential little bit of additional profit would have been quite acceptable compared to the big loss that would have had to be carried after the drop if I was a seller.

 

It worked for me back in 08 and 09 (that time I was watching sky high historic USA house price graphs from Fortune magazine).

 

Anyway, we all have different decision drivers. Long positions using credit at these heights is too dicey for me unless I am personally monitoring things on my screen during the day. I don't subscribe to stop loss unless I have to leave the screen.


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#21046 Plasma

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 07:27 PM

Hey AJ, you the ShareNet winner this month?

:D


Would maybe the nicely coincide with the top as A is calling it (towards end April).


ek ook gewonder!!! haha
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#21047 Lekkerry

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 07:21 PM

Hey AJ, you the ShareNet winner this month?

 

:D

 

Would maybe the nicely coincide with the top as A is calling it (towards end April).


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#21048 davidp13

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 07:20 PM



Avg Yr 2 of Election cycle shows a peak on the 18th of Apr, down until Oct, then yr-end rally
 



Spot on!!
 
And with all the cycles (60yr, 7yr, 4yr) bottoming together this year and QE3 ending (Sept) it makes up for a big bear leg down coming! :unsure:
 
A


Wonder if the Fed was clever enough to work that out all by themselves...

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#21049 farouk

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 07:05 PM

Attached File  charting.PNG   474.12KB   50 downloads

 

Very interesting chart indeed.

But lets look at what the chart is not telling us.

In the 2 corrections of 2000 and 2007 when debt reached a peak the market made a new high the following month.

I have drawn 2 black lines to show you what the market did after debt peaked.

Simply put it do not pre-empt the drop because if you do then Mr Market Maker will drop your pants.


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#21050 Shortboy

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 06:41 PM

Margin Debt at all time highs.

 

margindebtalltimehighsmar31.jpg

This is BRILLIANT Sunesis! Thank you!

 

At current market levels I am very uncomfortable with the extraordinary valuations on my long term holdings. At heart I am a fundamentalist BUT guys like you, RS, Argento, Jakes, Chubby and a few others have proved beyond any doubt in my mind that TA absolutely has a place in both long and short term trades/investing. 

 

I would rather lose out on potentially making another 10% or more on my long term stuff than maybe losing 30% or more of what I have already got.

 

Your graph just crystalised things for me.

 

Thanks Boet!


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#21051 Argento

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 06:24 PM

Avg Yr 2 of Election cycle shows a peak on the 18th of Apr, down until Oct, then yr-end rally

 

BkJa79NCAAATKd3.png

Spot on!!

 

And with all the cycles (60yr, 7yr, 4yr) bottoming together this year and QE3 ending (Sept) it makes up for a big bear leg down coming! :unsure:

 

A


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#21052 Sunesis

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 05:50 PM

Avg Yr 2 of Election cycle shows a peak on the 18th of Apr, down until Oct, then yr-end rally

 

BkJa79NCAAATKd3.png


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No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than..speculation.


#21053 Vertebrae

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 05:23 PM

194e3025-c320-45f7-a32e-c9aaf0bd2504-620

A penguin at a zoo in Devon has laid a golden egg.

The macaroni penguin, named Yoyo, laid the egg at Living Coasts, Torquay's coastal zoo.


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Africa will never be regarded as adult until all of its organisations stop admiring and protecting criminal dictators.

MSM et al presents (sponsored) opinion as fact and seeks to indoctrinate. Journalists without ethics proliferate in a swamp of filthy lucre (BBC inclusive).

In response to decades of racism by fearful minority whites called apartheid there will be an eternity of racism by revengeful majority blacks called all kinds of excuses.

Corruption is not yet compulsory but it may as well be - Aggressive africanization uses the racist Employment Equity Act as a club.

Too many humans are too busy copulating to bother about the irresponsible, unsustainable and progressively catastrophic population explosion. 

Whilst humanity prevails so will evil. Evil will survive and thrive through sophisticated indoctrination and other conscience-suppressing disguises.

Desmond Tutu has been praying for the downfall of the ANC since 2011. Clearly he needs some assistance with such a difficult and worthy task..

Cockroaches still lurk on sharechat because it is prime real estate for their con artistry, duping and grand theft.


#21054 Argento

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 05:14 PM

todays up rally was april fools joke :P

:D


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#21055 Sunesis

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 05:09 PM

Margin Debt at all time highs.

 

margindebtalltimehighsmar31.jpg


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No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than..speculation.


#21056 RBM

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 05:03 PM

Cool graph!

 

A

todays up rally was april fools joke :P


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#21057 OceanWalz

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 05:01 PM

looking at the weekly pattern I vote a bit more green tomorrow.


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#21058 Sunesis

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 05:00 PM

thanks for chart - and you are short S ?? I think a lot of people are taking profit here and fear of heights and what is needed is new Cash to commit to the upside - your thoughts? a retrace before the >1900's ?

I got a short on the DOW (16550), the Dow falls faster


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No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than..speculation.


#21059 Sunesis

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 04:58 PM

When bitcoin was at $1200 in December, i said it will busrt.

 

Now the stock maket is at a high. Chances are within the next 1 or 2 we should we lower than were the price is now.

 

BkIxx5mCQAAhjyT.png


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No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than..speculation.


#21060 OceanWalz

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 04:53 PM

This is were we are on the S&P 500

 

original_21613584.png?1396362641

thanks for chart - and you are short S ?? I think a lot of people are taking profit here and fear of heights and what is needed is new Cash to commit to the upside - your thoughts? a retrace before the >1900's ?


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