Jump to content


Photo
* * * * - 31 votes

ALSI Trades


  • Please log in to reply
35844 replies to this topic

#21001 AJS

AJS

    Sage

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,971 posts
  • LocationJohannesburg

Posted 02 April 2014 - 08:34 PM

Concur, thanks S for the cool charts!  ;)


Edited by AJS, 02 April 2014 - 08:34 PM.

  • 0
"Trade what you see, not what you think"

#21002 OceanWalz

OceanWalz

    Master

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 762 posts
  • LocationJHB

Posted 02 April 2014 - 08:26 PM

Just remember institutions are not the ones pushing the market up. Dumb money is pushing it up.

The big boys are cashing in. Selling to Mom & Pop as it goes higher.

 

Big boys were long from 2009, time to sell to Dumb money low hanging fruit.

CFTC reports that insider selling as reached 25%, a level not seen in history before.

I wonder what will happen when all Households are fully invested in the market.

 

Panic/Euphoria model is reaching new 14-year highs,this implies negative 12-month forward returns.

 

 

April normally ends flat or a 1.5 percent gain. Chances are by end of April we might be lower that were we are now or flat.

 

 

 

From there, seasonality becomes very bearish. You can see in the chart above and in the one below that the best three months of the year are now past. The next six months are toughest. It is not encouraging that equities have struggled against this positive backdrop heading into the next two quarters. This pattern fits the larger context of the current market, one where equities are unlikely to run substantially higher in the next se

Thanks S for our advice and great graphs,  this will help me a lot going forward - so much of this air is dumb money , but not all.

am only now appreciating the helpfulness of considering seasonal charts


  • 0

#21003 Sunesis

Sunesis

    Sage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,781 posts

Posted 02 April 2014 - 08:16 PM

The Smart Money Flashes Caution

 

The Smart Money Flow Index (SMFI) is calculated by taking the price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 10:00 a.m. on any given day, subtracting it from the previous day's close, and adding it to the next day's closing price. The first 30 minutes represent "emotional buying," driven by greed and fear of the crowd; smart money typically waits until the end of the day.  If/when the DJIA makes a new high that is not confirmed by the SMFI, there is usually trouble ahead. Check out the chart.

 

child1.png


  • 0

No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than..speculation.


#21004 Vertebrae

Vertebrae

    Pachycephalosaurus

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,075 posts
  • LocationDystopia

Posted 02 April 2014 - 07:32 PM

Don't turn on the lights 'cause I don't wanna see

Mama told me not to come

She said, "That ain't the way to have fun, son"

 


  • 0

Africa will never be regarded as adult until all of its organisations stop admiring and protecting criminal dictators.

MSM et al presents (sponsored) opinion as fact and seeks to indoctrinate. Journalists without ethics proliferate in a swamp of filthy lucre (BBC inclusive).

In response to decades of racism by fearful minority whites called apartheid there will be an eternity of racism by revengeful majority blacks called all kinds of excuses.

Corruption is not yet compulsory but it may as well be - Aggressive africanization uses the racist Employment Equity Act as a club.

Too many humans are too busy copulating to bother about the irresponsible, unsustainable and progressively catastrophic population explosion. 

Whilst humanity prevails so will evil. Evil will survive and thrive through sophisticated indoctrination and other conscience-suppressing disguises.

Desmond Tutu has been praying for the downfall of the ANC since 2011. Clearly he needs some assistance with such a difficult and worthy task..

Cockroaches still lurk on sharechat because it is prime real estate for their con artistry, duping and grand theft.


#21005 OceanWalz

OceanWalz

    Master

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 762 posts
  • LocationJHB

Posted 02 April 2014 - 07:06 PM

I cant explain why there wasnt a short cover but this chart maybe explains why it has been muted

Also remember its a contrarian indicater

Thanks Chubby , so no big bag of puts to cover seems to be a big piece of the puzzle

 

btw , watching that red bikini being drawn is going to be a favourite with me going forward! 


  • 0

#21006 Sunesis

Sunesis

    Sage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,781 posts

Posted 02 April 2014 - 06:06 PM

Weird that S&P has not shown short covering rush yet. That level must lie somewhere - thought it was at 1883, and now 1890 still not - there are lots of S&P500 bears out there , and seemingly self assured it seems and 1890 level does not seem to rattle them to cover!. so it seems short cover must be shifted up to 1903 then?

Just remember institutions are not the ones pushing the market up. Dumb money is pushing it up.

The big boys are cashing in. Selling to Mom & Pop as it goes higher.

 

Big boys were long from 2009, time to sell to Dumb money low hanging fruit.

CFTC reports that insider selling as reached 25%, a level not seen in history before.

I wonder what will happen when all Households are fully invested in the market.

 

Panic/Euphoria model is reaching new 14-year highs,this implies negative 12-month forward returns.

Panic+Model+3:25.png

 

April normally ends flat or a 1.5 percent gain. Chances are by end of April we might be lower that were we are now or flat.

mid+term+April.png

 

 

From there, seasonality becomes very bearish. You can see in the chart above and in the one below that the best three months of the year are now past. The next six months are toughest. It is not encouraging that equities have struggled against this positive backdrop heading into the next two quarters. This pattern fits the larger context of the current market, one where equities are unlikely to run substantially higher in the next several months

 

Returns+by+Q+on+Pres+Cycle+.png

 

The current cyclical bull market is not just extended in length (at over 5 years), but extended in terms of gains; relative to every bull market since 1960, the gains since 2009 are by far the greatest. An extended pause would be normal.

 

Bull+markets+at+5+yrs.png


  • 0

No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than..speculation.


#21007 OceanWalz

OceanWalz

    Master

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 762 posts
  • LocationJHB

Posted 02 April 2014 - 05:43 PM

Update on 60min Chart S&P

 

attachicon.gif60min.PNG

 

We have a break above the black resistance line @1883.

This resistance line will now become support line.

The breakout has a minimum target of 1925.

If the black line holds then this target will be achieved.

Thanks Farouk, would you advice anyone go long at these almost 44000 level - guess so? a bit simplistic calc but very roughly 1925S&P equates to 44800ish!!


  • 0

#21008 AJS

AJS

    Sage

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,971 posts
  • LocationJohannesburg

Posted 02 April 2014 - 05:30 PM

Update on 60min Chart S&P

 

attachicon.gif60min.PNG

 

We have a break above the black resistance line @1883.

This resistance line will now become support line.

The breakout has a minimum target of 1925.

If the black line holds then this target will be achieved.

 

Jip, exactly. That is what the charts are pointing to indeed.


  • 0
"Trade what you see, not what you think"

#21009 farouk

farouk

    The Oracle

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,725 posts

Posted 02 April 2014 - 05:20 PM

Update on 60min Chart S&P

 

Attached File  60min.PNG   87.46KB   73 downloads

 

We have a break above the black resistance line @1883.

This resistance line will now become support line.

The breakout has a minimum target of 1925.

If the black line holds then this target will be achieved.


  • 0

#21010 Playa

Playa

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 203 posts
  • LocationVryburg

Posted 02 April 2014 - 05:20 PM

HDB is guy who posts here

 

He is pretty good and makes lotsa $$$$'s but never buys us a round  :)

Lol Gannet!! :) Seems like he enjoying his $$$$ somewhere where there is no reception!!! :)


  • 1

#21011 gannet

gannet

    Little Master

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 735 posts

Posted 02 April 2014 - 05:11 PM

?

 

HDB is guy who posts here

 

He is pretty good and makes lotsa $$$$'s but never buys us a round  :)


  • 1

#21012 OceanWalz

OceanWalz

    Master

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 762 posts
  • LocationJHB

Posted 02 April 2014 - 05:08 PM

ALSI touching 44k - I reckon we will see the S&P touch 1900 also. 

Weird that S&P has not shown short covering rush yet. That level must lie somewhere - thought it was at 1883, and now 1890 still not - there are lots of S&P500 bears out there , and seemingly self assured it seems and 1890 level does not seem to rattle them to cover!. so it seems short cover must be shifted up to 1903 then?


  • 0

#21013 Eradicator

Eradicator

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 1 posts

Posted 02 April 2014 - 05:07 PM

HDB... where are YOU?!!
?
  • 0

#21014 AJS

AJS

    Sage

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,971 posts
  • LocationJohannesburg

Posted 02 April 2014 - 05:00 PM

ALSI touching 44k - I reckon we will see the S&P touch 1900 also. 


  • 0
"Trade what you see, not what you think"

#21015 Playa

Playa

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 203 posts
  • LocationVryburg

Posted 02 April 2014 - 04:54 PM

HDB... where are YOU?!!


  • 1

#21016 Roundtree

Roundtree

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 296 posts
  • LocationJohannesburg

Posted 02 April 2014 - 03:00 PM

Anyone still looking long on Sibanye?

Maybe at 2350 levels?

My chart says all the easy money on Sibanye has been taken. The professionals are probably setting up a big move for 1755. I would therefore wait for 1755 before jumping in. 


  • 0

Happy trading!


#21017 Godfather

Godfather

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 149 posts
  • LocationCape Town

Posted 02 April 2014 - 02:50 PM

Anyone still looking long on Sibanye?

Maybe at 2350 levels?


  • 0

#21018 Roundtree

Roundtree

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 296 posts
  • LocationJohannesburg

Posted 02 April 2014 - 02:45 PM

OK, it looks like I was wrong; the market's still bullish. I see the market retracing only down to 43435 (Jun 14) and not 42700 as I had said.

 

Once again, I'm not always right.


  • 0

Happy trading!


#21019 Sunesis

Sunesis

    Sage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,781 posts

Posted 02 April 2014 - 02:36 PM

Adding shorts 43600


  • 0

No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than..speculation.


#21020 Vertebrae

Vertebrae

    Pachycephalosaurus

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,075 posts
  • LocationDystopia

Posted 02 April 2014 - 12:18 PM

Will the last one out of the arena please close the gates.


  • 0

Africa will never be regarded as adult until all of its organisations stop admiring and protecting criminal dictators.

MSM et al presents (sponsored) opinion as fact and seeks to indoctrinate. Journalists without ethics proliferate in a swamp of filthy lucre (BBC inclusive).

In response to decades of racism by fearful minority whites called apartheid there will be an eternity of racism by revengeful majority blacks called all kinds of excuses.

Corruption is not yet compulsory but it may as well be - Aggressive africanization uses the racist Employment Equity Act as a club.

Too many humans are too busy copulating to bother about the irresponsible, unsustainable and progressively catastrophic population explosion. 

Whilst humanity prevails so will evil. Evil will survive and thrive through sophisticated indoctrination and other conscience-suppressing disguises.

Desmond Tutu has been praying for the downfall of the ANC since 2011. Clearly he needs some assistance with such a difficult and worthy task..

Cockroaches still lurk on sharechat because it is prime real estate for their con artistry, duping and grand theft.






Sponsored by Sharenet and VPSNine Linux VPS Hosting