35854 replies to this topic

[Olymphia]

What time do they announce it?

 

If we spike up today she moves outside her daily bollingerband that usually signals a top..but still see the biiiiig top around the 17th!

 

Thanks

 

A

The central bank will announce its policy decision at 1:45 p.m. in Frankfurt, and President Mario Draghi holds a press conference 45 minutes later.

[Argento]

If the ECB cut rates, it could create a spike up

 

Also keep an eye on the VIX, it is very low. The closer it gets to 12%, the higher the chance for a mean correction

What time do they announce it?

 

If we spike up today she moves outside her daily bollingerband that usually signals a top..but still see the biiiiig top around the 17th!

 

Thanks

 

A

[Sunesis]

A big impulsive upmove is still missing to put in a short term top...my guess is tomorrow (job figures could be the catalyst)..., so it is possible we may see some weakness this morning with a turnaround later that usually signals such a move coming or just go straight up! 

 

Longer term I am in the bear camp, market breadth is very weak and with several months lasting divergences in place it indicates on a major top around the corner!

 

Graph provided by UBS.

 

A

If the ECB cut rates, it could create a spike up

 

Also keep an eye on the VIX, it is very low. The closer it gets to 12%, the higher the chance for a mean correction

[Argento]

A big impulsive upmove is still missing to put in a short term top...my guess is tomorrow (job figures could be the catalyst)..., so it is possible we may see some weakness this morning with a turnaround later that usually signals such a move coming or just go straight up! 

 

Longer term I am in the bear camp, market breadth is very weak and with several months lasting divergences in place it indicates on a major top around the corner!

 

Graph provided by UBS.

 

A

[Godfather]

Hey Sunesis

 

Where can one get the updated version of the Smart Money Index?

This seems to be one of the most accurate and informative charts but cutting out all the "noise"

[Sunesis]

Just to see if we have insider trading. 

Tomorrow is ECB rate day, Goldman Sachs expecting ECB to cut deposite rate to -0.15%. While 45 of 47 estimates from Bloomberg expect no change

 

If they cut stocks will spike up

[Sunesis]

Chart of Institution Index

charting.PNG

I don't see any institutional selling.

Nor do i see any correction here.What i see is new highs.

A very bullish chart and with free money they just keep buying.

All the buying is Euphoria. It's only short term

The medium term shows for gevaar ahead.

 

Not to say we wont go higher. From a smart money perspective, keep the powder dry.

Big money will be made by shorting the market. Risk to Reward favors shorts. 

 

It also depends what sort of trader you are

[Ninja]

Doubting if this is the original Farouk... The original Farouk was all Bear. This ou is all Bull!! Viva la Farouk!!!!

[farouk]

Chart of Institution Index

 charting.PNG   51.67KB   58 downloads

I don't see any institutional selling.

Nor do i see any correction here.What i see is new highs.

A very bullish chart and with free money they just keep buying.

 

[Zero Hedge]

The Smart Money Flashes Caution
 
The Smart Money Flow Index (SMFI) is calculated by taking the price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 10:00 a.m. on any given day, subtracting it from the previous day's close, and adding it to the next day's closing price. The first 30 minutes represent "emotional buying," driven by greed and fear of the crowd; smart money typically waits until the end of the day.  If/when the DJIA makes a new high that is not confirmed by the SMFI, there is usually trouble ahead. Check out the chart.
 

What happened in Apr/May 2013...why the big disconnect?

[AJS]

Concur, thanks S for the cool charts! 

Edited by AJS, 02 April 2014 - 08:34 PM.

[OceanWalz]

Just remember institutions are not the ones pushing the market up. Dumb money is pushing it up.

The big boys are cashing in. Selling to Mom & Pop as it goes higher.

 

Big boys were long from 2009, time to sell to Dumb money low hanging fruit.

CFTC reports that insider selling as reached 25%, a level not seen in history before.

I wonder what will happen when all Households are fully invested in the market.

 

Panic/Euphoria model is reaching new 14-year highs,this implies negative 12-month forward returns.

 

 

April normally ends flat or a 1.5 percent gain. Chances are by end of April we might be lower that were we are now or flat.

 

 

 

From there, seasonality becomes very bearish. You can see in the chart above and in the one below that the best three months of the year are now past. The next six months are toughest. It is not encouraging that equities have struggled against this positive backdrop heading into the next two quarters. This pattern fits the larger context of the current market, one where equities are unlikely to run substantially higher in the next se

Thanks S for our advice and great graphs,  this will help me a lot going forward - so much of this air is dumb money , but not all.

am only now appreciating the helpfulness of considering seasonal charts

[Sunesis]

The Smart Money Flashes Caution

 

The Smart Money Flow Index (SMFI) is calculated by taking the price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 10:00 a.m. on any given day, subtracting it from the previous day's close, and adding it to the next day's closing price. The first 30 minutes represent "emotional buying," driven by greed and fear of the crowd; smart money typically waits until the end of the day.  If/when the DJIA makes a new high that is not confirmed by the SMFI, there is usually trouble ahead. Check out the chart.

 

[Vertebrae]

Don't turn on the lights 'cause I don't wanna see

Mama told me not to come

She said, "That ain't the way to have fun, son"

 

[OceanWalz]

I cant explain why there wasnt a short cover but this chart maybe explains why it has been muted

Also remember its a contrarian indicater

Thanks Chubby , so no big bag of puts to cover seems to be a big piece of the puzzle

 

btw , watching that red bikini being drawn is going to be a favourite with me going forward! 

[Sunesis]

Weird that S&P has not shown short covering rush yet. That level must lie somewhere - thought it was at 1883, and now 1890 still not - there are lots of S&P500 bears out there , and seemingly self assured it seems and 1890 level does not seem to rattle them to cover!. so it seems short cover must be shifted up to 1903 then?

Just remember institutions are not the ones pushing the market up. Dumb money is pushing it up.

The big boys are cashing in. Selling to Mom & Pop as it goes higher.

 

Big boys were long from 2009, time to sell to Dumb money low hanging fruit.

CFTC reports that insider selling as reached 25%, a level not seen in history before.

I wonder what will happen when all Households are fully invested in the market.

 

Panic/Euphoria model is reaching new 14-year highs,this implies negative 12-month forward returns.

 

April normally ends flat or a 1.5 percent gain. Chances are by end of April we might be lower that were we are now or flat.

 

 

From there, seasonality becomes very bearish. You can see in the chart above and in the one below that the best three months of the year are now past. The next six months are toughest. It is not encouraging that equities have struggled against this positive backdrop heading into the next two quarters. This pattern fits the larger context of the current market, one where equities are unlikely to run substantially higher in the next several months

 

 

The current cyclical bull market is not just extended in length (at over 5 years), but extended in terms of gains; relative to every bull market since 1960, the gains since 2009 are by far the greatest. An extended pause would be normal.

 

[OceanWalz]

Update on 60min Chart S&P

 

60min.PNG

 

We have a break above the black resistance line @1883.

This resistance line will now become support line.

The breakout has a minimum target of 1925.

If the black line holds then this target will be achieved.

Thanks Farouk, would you advice anyone go long at these almost 44000 level - guess so? a bit simplistic calc but very roughly 1925S&P equates to 44800ish!!

[AJS]

Update on 60min Chart S&P

 

60min.PNG

 

We have a break above the black resistance line @1883.

This resistance line will now become support line.

The breakout has a minimum target of 1925.

If the black line holds then this target will be achieved.

 

Jip, exactly. That is what the charts are pointing to indeed.

[farouk]

Update on 60min Chart S&P

 

 60min.PNG   87.46KB   73 downloads

 

We have a break above the black resistance line @1883.

This resistance line will now become support line.

The breakout has a minimum target of 1925.

If the black line holds then this target will be achieved.

[Playa]

HDB is guy who posts here

 

He is pretty good and makes lotsa $$$$'s but never buys us a round 

Lol Gannet!! Seems like he enjoying his $$$$ somewhere where there is no reception!!!