35854 replies to this topic

[AJS]

Interesting charts w.r.t the well known Kress Cycle.  For those who are not familiar with it: http://lmgtfy.com/?q...e Kress Cycle?   (The first link will explain)

Attached Files

•  Small_kress.png   38.83KB   26 downloads
•  Medium Kress.png   35.08KB   26 downloads
•  Long_Kress.png   37.12KB   22 downloads

Edited by AJS, 22 February 2014 - 11:15 AM.

[Beorn]

no reaction to bad US data

 

That has been par for the coarse for most of the bad econ data, nothing new here.

[Beorn]

IMO, perfect storm for a very positive day, Most of the heavy weights are up strongly in international markets, and the ZAR is getting weaker against the $ & GBP.

 

I closed my short from yesterday and I'm long @ 42830.

 

Closed this long @ 42910.

 

This bull train does not seem to have an end.

[UpAnDdOwN]

no reaction to bad US data

[AJS]

Watch how we run again from 17:00 to 17:30 when futures close! Well, it happened a few times this week.

[Sunesis]

[Argento]

We'll need to start dropping now.

Damn friday afternoon short covering!

 

A

[Beorn]

My bet is on a spinner!

 

A

 

We'll need to start dropping now.

[Argento]

This daily candle can turn into a hammer very easily.

My bet is on a spinner!

 

A

[Argento]

Thanks A...That's something new I learnt today!!

 

A

[HDB]

Moving outside the weekly bollingerband and coming back the same week has bearish implications, let's see if next week confirms!

 

A

Thanks A...That's something new I learnt today!!

Edited by HDB, 21 February 2014 - 03:10 PM.

[Argento]

I'm not short as the bigger trend (weekly reversal candle) is still up...will go long around 41700ish with this pullback!

 

Sell signal is in...next week red hanger sale!

 

A

Moving outside the weekly bollingerband and coming back the same week has bearish implications, let's see if next week confirms!

 

A

[HDB]

Pleasure HDB, see attachments that i got from the JSE Wednesday

Thanks again Mhlato...very very handy!!

[AJS]

This daily candle can turn into a hammer very easily.

 

Just depends how you hold the hammer!  

[Lekkerry]

Ok, long until 22:30 tonight. I personally don't have any other "thing" nor "thingy" to go by. Mind you, it is only a couple of micro contracts!

[Beorn]

I'm not short as the bigger trend (weekly reversal candle) is still up...will go long around 41700ish with this pullback!

 

Sell signal is in...next week red hanger sale!

 

A

 

This daily candle can turn into a hammer very easily.

[Sunesis]

Just for seasonality, March is the most bullish period before June lows.

 

Those with cash waiting for a good short can wait for another month

Remember it can wipe out March bullishness in one day when it starts selling off.

When crashing, it can wipe out 6 months work in 3 days.

 

Hence: Bulls climb the stairs and bears jump out the window

 

[Sunesis]

Shoe! 

There were 3 of those big orders in the span of 10 min that went through!

They came in as bids to buy, and was taken in one trade!

 

This is scary. Dont know what it means, but the guys with big money is putting in a big bet.

They might have news that S&P will break 1850 tonight.

failure to break that high tonight, will get the bears licking their fingers.

Momemtum is surely with the bulls, 43300 looks likely.

 

If you are not aggressive, don't trade it. Rather wait for a sell signal.

 

Short is safer than Long, meaning a breakup wont happen. It's just better risk reward

[OceanWalz]

The higher the market goes, the riskier it becomes. That's when you get those waterfall drops when markets are closed and everybody is shocked in the morning.

 

The safest way of trading this market now, is to wait for a blowout top. We need those animal spirits to break S&P 1850 and ride it until 1880 MAX.

Shorts will then have a safer risk to reward ratio leading to May-June bearish seasonality.

 

April,May,June are bearish, some may be saving money to sell the top around those months.

 

I am surely not buying medium term.

But i am surely selling medium term

 

This plan is not intended for scalpers.

In 1-2 months bears would have a good party.

Thanks S - good insight there and helpful to me going forward, I am very much waiting for that likely and lively blow out possibility to start medium weight Short - and not just on T40Fs but on few other bearish looking shares as well.

[Sunesis]

I agree w you, many people seem to have intention to go Short at jsut under 43k so as 'not to miss the boat' down and this lowers the T40 now - but I think this is premature to my trend lines of testing the 1865 level at least

 

the S&P regained its footing after poor news (jobs, etc and recently poor China manufacturing data should be bigger concern to the resource producing countries than US of A)  and indicate that it is likely to test 1850 and overshoot , even though it might take a few days to consolidate between 1830/1850 - but once the 'good news is priced in move to 1850 and accompanying last short covering etc to say upper range 1865 who is left to buy an over extended market - so all in all it seems at 42780 T40Fs a decent enough EL for a small long for me - Long 42780

then short - but bit scary so many people seem to have same idea reading upper BBs and upper part of channel to go short as well

The higher the market goes, the riskier it becomes. That's when you get those waterfall drops when markets are closed and everybody is shocked in the morning.

 

The safest way of trading this market now, is to wait for a blowout top. We need those animal spirits to break S&P 1850 and ride it until 1880 MAX.

Shorts will then have a safer risk to reward ratio leading to May-June bearish seasonality.

 

April,May,June are bearish, some may be saving money to sell the top around those months.

 

I am surely not buying medium term.

But i am surely selling medium term

 

This plan is not intended for scalpers.

In 1-2 months bears would have a good party.