My play (EDIT - if I had to enter a new position) is a very cautious long (at the close of Friday evening using IG J200).
My feel (and posting) earlier was that ALSI Top40 would drop once the 1d chart reached the BBU, with a confirmation given by the over-bought RSI (all happening 19 Feb 2014). What subsequently transpired was that with the momentum, the BBU was pushed up, even though we are in over-bought territory sing the RSI (14).
The 1d has not failed yet (the previous possible reversal signal was very quickly amended with the maintaining at the 43000 level end of last week), so until I have any other signals to go by, I will have to consider the 1d and BB being pushed to a high of 4345# (J200) currently as the next possible turning point.
(further thoughts: The 1d BBU breach of 19 Feb 2014 was my first cue for a breakdown lower, but the higher high logged Friday 21 Feb 2014 gives a totally different (bullish) spin on things. By no means a fool-proof recipe, but do some back-test using 1d, BB, RSI and MACD and you will note the 1d is fairly accurate using these indicators.) - see attached IGM chart as of close on Friday evening / Saturday morning) - there is a beefy 400+ points between close and BBU now.
There is no need to be over-eager to go either way currently (note to self!). Give the market some time to digest and either establish this 43000 level or break-down from here. I am sure there are short scalps to be had Monday though, but the bigger (more than 400 points) trend is still up, given my facts and stats.
At any time, a sell-off can confuse my signals (so I probably could then just as well not submitted this posting! LOL),
Hi,
What is the feeling for the coming week? Are we at the top of the cycle and heading down to 40500 to touch the bottom of the band again?
Well done to the Proteas!
Edited by Lekkerry, 23 February 2014 - 08:17 PM.