35854 replies to this topic

[Sunesis]

How low can the indices go if US services and ADP NFP numbers miss today. S&P=1710, DAX =8950  ALSI =39000

[Sunesis]

The big one for the UK as services number up next

UK number not that good. It's going to slow things for the bulls. 

Now we wait for US numbers.

 

Those can get bears going if they are bad

[Sunesis]

The big one for the UK as services number up next

[Zero Hedge]

Volitility is expected to rise because it's NFP week. People place trades 2 weeks before NFP or FOMC expecting some volitility

The VIX is overbought on daily at current levels, but it is at fair price on the weeky.

 

Everytime Vix went above 20 in 2013, it fell back to the 13-15 levels one week later. This means if history of 2013 happens, our indices will be higher next week.

 

But today UK and US Services numbers are going to play a big part.

 

The ECB and BOE have their meetings tomorrow, market expects ECB to lower rates again. That would make all european indices to spike up including ALSI if Draghi dropped rates.

 

The indices are at crossroads now.

 

A 39600 break on ALSI goes to 39000.

A 40100 break on ALSI goes to 40400.

 

I would long ALSI now with stop at 39600

 

Just keep an eye on UK and US service numbers today. They will start all the action.

Dont forget ADP NFP @ 15h15

 

We are going to enjoy a blockbuster of news starting today till friday 

Ok follow your logic to short VIX at current levels...thx

[Sunesis]

See I got a short order filled for Japan225 @ 14200; in the green already. Thanks S! Now for a nice trailing stop...or what's your target?

Just put your stop at breakeven, i'm expecting a  lot of short covering

Spikes to the upside can surprice today

[Sunesis]

Hi Sunesis, sorry for being thick...but why be short vol if volatility is expected to rise?

Volitility is expected to rise because it's NFP week. People place trades 2 weeks before NFP or FOMC expecting some volitility

The VIX is overbought on daily at current levels, but it is at fair price on the weeky.

 

Everytime Vix went above 20 in 2013, it fell back to the 13-15 levels one week later. This means if history of 2013 happens, our indices will be higher next week.

 

But today UK and US Services numbers are going to play a big part.

 

The ECB and BOE have their meetings tomorrow, market expects ECB to lower rates again. That would make all european indices to spike up including ALSI if Draghi dropped rates.

 

The indices are at crossroads now.

 

A 39600 break on ALSI goes to 39000.

A 40100 break on ALSI goes to 40400.

 

I would long ALSI now with stop at 39600

 

Just keep an eye on UK and US service numbers today. They will start all the action.

Dont forget ADP NFP @ 15h15

 

We are going to enjoy a blockbuster of news starting today till friday 

[Lamarje]

I feel abit bullish...is that the proper sentiment at the moment?

[BBW]

i mean short Nikkei

See I got a short order filled for Japan225 @ 14200; in the green already. Thanks S! Now for a nice trailing stop...or what's your target?

Edited by BBW, 05 February 2014 - 08:29 AM.

[OceanWalz]

I'm still holding my shorts from a couple of weeks ago.
Only a big news event will get me to close it.
I'm looking for a lot more bearish action

 

 

 

 Bear Jakes  , what is your view on a realistic down target apart from Dec lows at T40Spot 38500 roughly? thanks

[OceanWalz]

Smart... We will see Dec lows in the coming weeks, and possibly even lower.

 

I'm looking to enter shorts again if she bounces. But this cat appears to be very dead... (or still falling)

 

K

38500 on T40 Cash and lower?  we certainly can make that K, in fact we are not that far away from it. Q is how much lower - is lowered forward earnings really fully priced in yet? a lot of global companies depends on emerging markets for a chunk of their revenue. So we are globally on track to economic improvement but the neon lights of growth got ahead of the slower reality of lots of devils still to bump over on the way (not priced in usually)

[OceanWalz]

I think we will just go little up, little down rest of week until Fridays Job reports and then we pop with a strong short cover or sink strongly. However since Mondays severe sink on e.g. S&P500 a lot of negative expectations (but not all) is already priced in - so with even just a bland job ,just meet the expectations report up we go, but if we miss like a previous time w a 100k then put on your goggles for a dive and don't even wait for a dead cat bounce 

--- on balance I am preparing for a bounce -- 

 

[K~~]

Smart... We will see Dec lows in the coming weeks, and possibly even lower.

 

I'm looking to enter shorts again if she bounces. But this cat appears to be very dead... (or still falling)

 

K

[Beorn]

I'm still holding my shorts from a couple of weeks ago.
Only a big news event will get me to close it.
I'm looking for a lot more bearish action

[Zero Hedge]

This is interesting, on Hot stoxx they are not hot on Nikkei 225 and decided to short the index at 15,119. The reasoning that they had an impressive run last year is understandable but shorting this index at this level after it retraced in value from its January high of 16,397 could be dangerous. I am long from 15,300 and will keep adding as we go further down

Must be honest...the guys at Hotstoxx have never struck me as being very smart. A call on the Nikkei 225 is a call on the Yen. If the Yen goes to 99 the Nikkei will go down...if the Yen goes to 106 the Nikkei will go up...it's that simple for now! What happened in 2013 doesn't matter. The Nikkei is still down more than 60% over last 20 years. So it can go up a lot from here if Yen plays ball. Not sure it is such a high conviction short if you base your investment case on last years impressive run?

[Zero Hedge]

When VIX goes up the Nikkei will go down. They are expecting volitile markets. Volitile markets are good for short VIX

Hi Sunesis, sorry for being thick...but why be short vol if volatility is expected to rise?

[Beorn]

I'm still holding my shorts from a couple of weeks ago.
Only a big news event will get me to close it.
I'm looking for a lot more bearish action

[Sunesis]

When VIX goes up the Nikkei will go down. They are expecting volitile markets. Volitile markets are good for short VIX

i mean short Nikkei

[Sunesis]

This is interesting, on Hot stoxx they are not hot on Nikkei 225 and decided to short the index at 15,119. The reasoning that they had an impressive run last year is understandable but shorting this index at this level after it retraced in value from its January high of 16,397 could be dangerous. I am long from 15,300 and will keep adding as we go further down

When VIX goes up the Nikkei will go down. They are expecting volitile markets. Volitile markets are good for short VIX

[BlythZ]

This is interesting, on Hot stoxx they are not hot on Nikkei 225 and decided to short the index at 15,119. The reasoning that they had an impressive run last year is understandable but shorting this index at this level after it retraced in value from its January high of 16,397 could be dangerous. I am long from 15,300 and will keep adding as we go further down

[AJS]

Got this one (cant remember who posted it) on the old SC

 

Haha, good one!