35854 replies to this topic

[Mostlya]

It's mind-boggling that the US markets have had so much faith in Trump. Puts paid to the notion that the US economy was really recovering. We all know the "recovery" was nothing but easy money from the Fed.

 

The other major risk is the debt ceiling which expires on the 15th March. I can't see Trump getting a trillion dollars for infrastructure and more for defense in this environment. But apparently the market doesn't care.

Around the same time the US should raise interest rates too and that should re-focus the market on the reality of things. The discontent/hatred that the Republican party has for Trump is going to make everything and anything he wants to do very difficult.  

[bullsnbears44]

I agree completely. To be clear I'm completely short this market and I can't even bring myself to go long, even for a scalp.

 

I look at the US market will awe. I wasn't trading last time it topped out so I don't have experience in what it must feel like but at the moment that US market is screaming it. There's a good chance they're entering a period of distribution here. Not to say one should try and trade for a crash but a solid and heavy correction is needed and I'm sure wanted by the big institutions over in the US.

It's mind-boggling that the US markets have had so much faith in Trump. Puts paid to the notion that the US economy was really recovering. We all know the "recovery" was nothing but easy money from the Fed.

 

The other major risk is the debt ceiling which expires on the 15th March. I can't see Trump getting a trillion dollars for infrastructure and more for defense in this environment. But apparently the market doesn't care.

[Mostlya]

There was nothing to drive the ALSI up 3500 points in the first place. It was all hopes and dreams and longing for the so-called Santa Rally.  There's still room for another 1000 point drop before the US enters the picture IMO.

 

Trump's speech was typical Trump - nothing but bluster, bragging and no concrete plans. And yet again markets are ignoring it. US politics is not only about the President, it's about the Congress as well. And negotiation and concession is not in Trump's genes - he won't do it no matter what. His agenda is already dead in the water simply because of his awful arrogant know-it-all personality. Markets still believe in his silly dreams but reality is lurking around the corner. Anyone going long over the medium term at this time is playing Russian Roulette IMO.

I agree completely. To be clear I'm completely short this market and I can't even bring myself to go long, even for a scalp.

 

I look at the US market will awe. I wasn't trading last time it topped out so I don't have experience in what it must feel like but at the moment that US market is screaming it. There's a good chance they're entering a period of distribution here. Not to say one should try and trade for a crash but a solid and heavy correction is needed and I'm sure wanted by the big institutions over in the US.

[bullsnbears44]

I guess it's very clear now that the next leg down will be driven by weakness in the US markets. All other factors that have driven the ALSI down some 3 000 points from its recent highs appear to have been exhausted.

 

US futures seemed to have reacted positively to Trump's nothing speech last night. It's going to be interesting to watch how the real market reacts later. At some point they surely have to turn around and start wondering how he's going to actually fulfil the promised tax cuts and spending etc. Question as always will be exactly when will real selling being. Not sure if yesterday was it. Might just be a pause.

There was nothing to drive the ALSI up 3500 points in the first place. It was all hopes and dreams and longing for the so-called Santa Rally.  There's still room for another 1000 point drop before the US enters the picture IMO.

 

Trump's speech was typical Trump - nothing but bluster, bragging and no concrete plans. And yet again markets are ignoring it. US politics is not only about the President, it's about the Congress as well. And negotiation and concession is not in Trump's genes - he won't do it no matter what. His agenda is already dead in the water simply because of his awful arrogant know-it-all personality. Markets still believe in his silly dreams but reality is lurking around the corner. Anyone going long over the medium term at this time is playing Russian Roulette IMO.

[Mostlya]

I expect bulls to defend strongly defend 44k. Should give bears some breathing room before they mount their next assault.

I guess it's very clear now that the next leg down will be driven by weakness in the US markets. All other factors that have driven the ALSI down some 3 000 points from its recent highs appear to have been exhausted.

 

US futures seemed to have reacted positively to Trump's nothing speech last night. It's going to be interesting to watch how the real market reacts later. At some point they surely have to turn around and start wondering how he's going to actually fulfil the promised tax cuts and spending etc. Question as always will be exactly when will real selling being. Not sure if yesterday was it. Might just be a pause.

[bullsnbears44]

Hope so. Seems weak today despite strength in Asia and weakness in the Rand. Wonder how long it'll be until we get a bounce? Finally hitting that 44K handle. It's been a long wait.

I expect bulls to defend strongly defend 44k. Should give bears some breathing room before they mount their next assault.

[Mostlya]

If 44k breaks I expect 43k to come very quickly. Especially with US markets seemingly turning over.

Hope so. Seems weak today despite strength in Asia and weakness in the Rand. Wonder how long it'll be until we get a bounce? Finally hitting that 44K handle. It's been a long wait.

[bullsnbears44]

If 44k breaks I expect 43k to come very quickly. Especially with US markets seemingly turning over.

[bullsnbears44]

Hi all I'm new here,

 

I tend to agree with that notion that the Rand has probably strengthened to a point of weakness now. The real question might be what effect the pullback in the US markets might have on the commodity complex and put another way what the dollar might do during a period of risk off.

 

Financials will take a hit with the weakening Rand and Industrials will be somewhat protected by the Rand as you've noted (except of course if Tencent gets clubbed due to any perceived Chinese economic weakness from Trump-related trade risk). Question will remain if Resources can hold up and help slow down the ALSI slow down.

 

Technically the ALSI is certainly starting to get oversold and as noted the Weekly 200MA is a likely support and a good place for smart buyers to start loading up again.

Welcome to the board. Great to have new posters.

[Mostlya]

Although trend is your friend and remains down... we need to keep a level head and remember that alsi has gone sideways for 3 years now, rand is up from 15+ to 13... will alsi see that big of a bang down when s&p corrects remains to be seen

When paw paw hits the fan and rand weakens and alsi doesn't drop as much as expected quite a few shorters in the line to cover

Hi all I'm new here,

 

I tend to agree with that notion that the Rand has probably strengthened to a point of weakness now. The real question might be what effect the pullback in the US markets might have on the commodity complex and put another way what the dollar might do during a period of risk off.

 

Financials will take a hit with the weakening Rand and Industrials will be somewhat protected by the Rand as you've noted (except of course if Tencent gets clubbed due to any perceived Chinese economic weakness from Trump-related trade risk). Question will remain if Resources can hold up and help slow down the ALSI slow down.

 

Technically the ALSI is certainly starting to get oversold and as noted the Weekly 200MA is a likely support and a good place for smart buyers to start loading up again.

[Ninja]

Although trend is your friend and remains down... we need to keep a level head and remember that alsi has gone sideways for 3 years now, rand is up from 15+ to 13... will alsi see that big of a bang down when s&p corrects remains to be seen

When paw paw hits the fan and rand weakens and alsi doesn't drop as much as expected quite a few shorters in the line to cover

[gannet]

If she can get back above 44800, we can see a sprint of 1500 points to around 46300

 

If you look at the shape of the hourly chart you will notice how tighter and steeper the moves have become since Wednesday's high. This is bearish ... suggesting a fast move down. The reverse of this is bullish. All forms of tight coiling moves lead to a strong move

[Ninja]

If she can get back above 44800, we can see a sprint of 1500 points to around 46300

[Ninja]

Ok... I'm expecting some bounce... keeping an eye on the inverse h&s on daily chart... or am I being too optimistic??? Wonder what the shorts are thinking this morning?

Longer term still down though😉

[bullsnbears44]

The insanity of the post-Christmas rally getting exposed for the sham it was. Will add to shorts if we hit 44k next week and likewise if we get to 45k. US markets are rip to pop.

[gannet]

Added longs 44,584

a fib target hit and on a normal day I would agree with you. just not sure this is a normal day

[Ninja]

Good buying area... I've alsonly loaded up longs 44570

[BlythZ]

Added longs 44,584