35854 replies to this topic

[Sunesis]

s

 

up r down?

 

o

The answer is simple

Where do you think Sunesis favours

All my trades are one way and you know which side

[Olymphia]

s

 

up r down?

 

o

[Sunesis]

CALM BEFORE THE STORM

[AJS]

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre...story about Jesse Livingstone, best trader ever lived!

 

And same principals apply today..must read!

 

A

 

Yeah A, you recommended this book to me and I've read it twice now, it really is an awesome read!

Edited by AJS, 14 November 2013 - 03:28 PM.

[Argento]

I only know of Trading in the Zone, what other Trading Psychology books are out there?

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre...story about Jesse Livingstone, best trader ever lived!

 

And same principals apply today..must read!

 

A

Edited by Argento, 14 November 2013 - 03:27 PM.

[Sunesis]

I only know of Trading in the Zone, what other Trading Psychology books are out there?

Those books teach a lot about market history and cycles.

[gringots]

long almi at 40451, looking for 40600.

 

 

[gringots]

Read the Book by David Schwartz "Trading Secrets"

and "The Master Trader" - Laszlo Birinyi

 

I only know of Trading in the Zone, what other Trading Psychology books are out there?

[Sunesis]

Yip, cycles together with charts very important!

 

Think that could also be why we have not raced out of the pits as this week is seasonally bearish for our markets (commodities)..but soon!

 

Everybody is thinking these gains are insane and should stop soon, but if you look at the longer term charts we are seeing a breakout of a 13 year consolidation period....next years weakness (40yr cycle low) will probably be the return move back to where it broke out..it being 1575ish on the SPX!Look back at the charts and see how many times TOP40 made its high in February...

 

So QE or not charts are confirming these gains and what is to come!Should they start tapering in March 2014 and the market corrects heavily they will just introduce a new program for infinity and beyond...all in the charts!

 

A

QE infinity LOL

[Argento]

The best way to not confuse yourself is to look at the cycle.

Smart traders know that from October to January is a bullish season. So you only buy. No need to confuse yourself. I have been buying since October.

The from March till June is bearish. that time you sell. July till October you become neutral.

 

It's not that i am a bull, but the cycle is bullish.

 

Read the Book by David Schwartz "Trading Secrets"

and "The Master Trader" - Laszlo Birinyi

Yip, cycles together with charts very important!

 

Think that could also be why we have not raced out of the pits as this week is seasonally bearish for our markets (commodities)..but soon!

 

Everybody is thinking these gains are insane and should stop soon, but if you look at the longer term charts we are seeing a breakout of a 13 year consolidation period....next years weakness (40yr cycle low) will probably be the return move back to where it broke out..it being 1575ish on the SPX!Look back at the charts and see how many times TOP40 made its high in February...

 

So QE or not charts are confirming these gains and what is to come!Should they start tapering in March 2014 and the market corrects heavily they will just introduce a new program for infinity and beyond...all in the charts!

 

A

Edited by Argento, 14 November 2013 - 03:15 PM.

[BBW]

The best way to not confuse yourself is to look at the cycle.

Smart traders know that from October to January is a bullish season. So you only buy. No need to confuse yourself. I have been buying since October.

The from March till June is bearish. that time you sell. July till October you become neutral.

 

It's not that i am a bull, but the cycle is bullish.

 

Read the Book by David Schwartz "Trading Secrets"

and "The Master Trader" - Laszlo Birinyi

Thanks, will have a look at them. Busy at the moment with Jacques Magliolo's books. 

[Sunesis]

Lesson learned today: Revenge trading can work, but keep to your Targets and Stops. And (ONCE AGAIN) don't get greedy and think FOR the market; do as the MARKET does!

 

Had 3 standards short last night which ran into a R60k loss by the time I closed it last night (I thought the S&P will repeat the previous day's antics). Then immediately opened a 5 big ones on a long (revenge), and when it hit 40600 this morning I was already in profit by a bit, but then got greedy and changed my TP to a trailing SL which I adjusted downward, as I couldn't believe it when the market dropped again.  Now I'm once again in the position of trying to recuperate my loss, but unsure and much less bold.

 

Trading's definitely not for the faint-hearted, especially when on the edge all the time...

The best way to not confuse yourself is to look at the cycle.

Smart traders know that from October to January is a bullish season. So you only buy. No need to confuse yourself. I have been buying since October.

The from March till June is bearish. that time you sell. July till October you become neutral.

 

It's not that i am a bull, but the cycle is bullish.

 

Read the Book by David Schwartz "Trading Secrets"

and "The Master Trader" - Laszlo Birinyi

[BBW]

Lesson learned today: Revenge trading can work, but keep to your Targets and Stops. And (ONCE AGAIN) don't get greedy and think FOR the market; do as the MARKET does!

 

Had 3 standards short last night which ran into a R60k loss by the time I closed it last night (I thought the S&P will repeat the previous day's antics). Then immediately opened a 5 big ones on a long (revenge), and when it hit 40600 this morning I was already in profit by a bit, but then got greedy and changed my TP to a trailing SL which I adjusted downward, as I couldn't believe it when the market dropped again.  Now I'm once again in the position of trying to recuperate my loss, but unsure and much less bold.

 

Trading's definitely not for the faint-hearted, especially when on the edge all the time...

[Sunesis]

 

Yellen Testimony before the Senate

 

Vice Chair Janet L. Yellen

Confirmation hearing Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.November 13, 2013

 

Chairman Johnson, Senator Crapo, and members of the Committee, thank you for this opportunity to appear before you today. It has been a privilege for me to serve the Federal Reserve at different times and in different roles over the past 36 years, and an honor to be nominated by the President to lead the Fed as Chair of the Board of Governors.

 

I approach this task with a clear understanding that the Congress has entrusted the Federal Reserve with great responsibilities. Its decisions affect the well-being of every American and the strength and prosperity of our nation. That prosperity depends most, of course, on the productiveness and enterprise of the American people, but the Federal Reserve plays a role too, promoting conditions that foster maximum employment, low and stable inflation, and a safe and sound financial system.

The past six years have been challenging for our nation and difficult for many Americans. We endured the worst financial crisis and deepest recession since the Great Depression. The effects were severe, but they could have been far worse. Working together, government leaders confronted these challenges and successfully contained the crisis. Under the wise and skillful leadership of Chairman Bernanke, the Fed helped stabilize the financial system, arrest the steep fall in the economy, and restart growth.

Today the economy is significantly stronger and continues to improve. The private sector has created 7.8 million jobs since the post-crisis low for employment in 2010. Housing, which was at the center of the crisis, seems to have turned a corner--construction, home prices, and sales are up significantly. The auto industry has made an impressive comeback, with domestic production and sales back to near their pre-crisis levels.

 

We have made good progress, but we have farther to go to regain the ground lost in the crisis and the recession. Unemployment is down from a peak of 10 percent, but at 7.3 percent in October, it is still too high, reflecting a labor market and economy performing far short of their potential. At the same time, inflation has been running below the Federal Reserve's goal of 2 percent and is expected to continue to do so for some time.

 

For these reasons, the Federal Reserve is using its monetary policy tools to promote a more robust recovery. A strong recovery will ultimately enable the Fed to reduce its monetary accommodation and reliance on unconventional policy tools such as asset purchases. I believe that supporting the recovery today is the surest path to returning to a more normal approach to monetary policy.

 

In the past two decades, and especially under Chairman Bernanke, the Federal Reserve has provided more and clearer information about its goals. Like the Chairman, I strongly believe that monetary policy is most effective when the public understands what the Fed is trying to do and how it plans to do it. At the request of Chairman Bernanke, I led the effort to adopt a statement of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) longer-run objectives, including a 2 percent goal for inflation. I believe this statement has sent a clear and powerful message about the FOMC's commitment to its goals and has helped anchor the public's expectations that inflation will remain low and stable in the future. In this and many other ways, the Federal Reserve has become a more open and transparent institution. I have strongly supported this commitment to openness and transparency, and will continue to do so if I am confirmed and serve as Chair.

 

The crisis revealed weaknesses in our financial system. I believe that financial institutions, the Federal Reserve, and our fellow regulators have made considerable progress in addressing those weaknesses. Banks are stronger today, regulatory gaps are being closed, and the financial system is more stable and more resilient. Safeguarding the United States in a global financial system requires higher standards both here and abroad, so the Federal Reserve and other regulators have worked with our counterparts around the globe to secure improved capital requirements and other reforms internationally. Today, banks hold more and higher-quality capital and liquid assets that leave them much better prepared to withstand financial turmoil. Large banks are now subject to annual "stress tests" designed to ensure that they will have enough capital to continue the vital role they play in the economy, even under highly adverse circumstances.

 

We have made progress in promoting a strong and stable financial system, but here, too, important work lies ahead. I am committed to using the Fed's supervisory and regulatory role to reduce the threat of another financial crisis. I believe that capital and liquidity rules and strong supervision are important tools for addressing the problem of financial institutions that are regarded as "too big to fail." In writing new rules, however, the Fed should continue to limit the regulatory burden for community banks and smaller institutions, taking into account their distinct role and contributions. Overall, the Federal Reserve has sharpened its focus on financial stability and is taking that goal into consideration when carrying out its responsibilities for monetary policy. I support these developments and pledge, if confirmed, to continue them.

 

Our country has come a long way since the dark days of the financial crisis, but we have farther to go. Likewise, I believe the Federal Reserve has made significant progress toward its goals but has more work to do.

 

Thank you for the opportunity to appear before you today. I would be happy to respond to your questions.

 

 

 

Based on this speech by Yellen, i think tapering will not come now. I highlighted bold and blue so you can see that Yellen is a Super Dove.

She will make Bernanke look like a Hawk when she takes over.

 

Just keep buying the dips          

 

Those who missed Yellen testimony last night to the Senate

 

She is basically saying QE will be on for sometime.

 

Note:but at 7.3 percent in October, it is still too high, reflecting a labor market and economy performing far short of their potential. At the same time, inflation has been running below the Federal Reserve's goal of 2 percent and is expected to continue to do so for some time.

 

She is basically saying QE will be on for sometime.

    Skep tewyl dit reen

[Plasma]

Waiting for a bullish entry signal...seeing bearishness.....not position ATM..only 90 points from this day so far.

Got my entry ....

[Argento]

HI Argento - your 40349 for T40F's is  there - gonna take take them? or think more downside in current scenario? lilely some down in US markets as they settle lasst nights short covering

Must say did not expect this much weakness, but she is close to her 5H 89 too so I don't see much more down pressure, but need to watch how we close, don't like the candle on the dailies..!

 

With Janet speaking and as S said anything can happen, but US charts still looks bullish to me!

 

One gets different types of lows...the one racing out of the tracks but the other coming down to almost the previous low before moving higher, if price moves to quickly it needs to adjust so the MACD's can catch up and create that magic positive divergence.

 

A

Edited by Argento, 14 November 2013 - 02:14 PM.

[RBM]

If we go under 39700 then we could see 38600

[Sunesis]

Cisco missed Revenue last night but EPS was alright.

 

Walmart just missed revenue now.

Q3 misses revenue $115.69bn vs. exp. $116.82bn. EPS $1.14 vs. exp. $1.13. 

 

 

 

Cisco and Walmart have a lot of influence on US economy. I don't think the FED will taper while this two companies are still suffering.

 

Walmart miss, means that the consumer is not spending.

It's like Shoprite missing revenue.

 

We need more QE Dr Yellen.

[RBM]

S, i think we could, in a triangle, lets see if we meet less than 39900 but greater than 39700

[gringots]

I like this scenario, didnt have enough momentum to close yesterday's gap.

I'm short almi at 40590, hoping it closes today's gap but will see what it does when it hits the pivot.

I set a limit at the pivot, I'm now out at 40312