35854 replies to this topic

[Sunesis]

Gold Trader: Gold Signaling “Manufactured” Crash Over Next 30-40 Trading Days

 

Gary Savage, publisher of the Smart Money Tracker daily gold market commentary and trading service, which has outperformed most of the world’s hedge funds in 2011 and 2012

 

Gary indicated that gold is now signaling the increasing likelihood of another overnight sell-off event, similar to what was seen in late June, in which the price collapsed from $1400 oz. to just under $1200 oz.

 

In describing what gold is signaling to the market right now, Gary noted that, “Over the last month and a half, gold deviated and started to follow the dollar down[wards], which I was afraid was a warning sign that gold would be in trouble once the dollar started to rally…and that’s exactly what has played out. The dollar rallied over the last three weeks, [and] gold turned back [down]…almost to the exact day that the dollar started this rally.“

 

 

 

When asked how this bottom might play out on a visual basis, Gary said,“When [gold] bottoms, it will bottom in a v-shape—[and] it’ll come roaring back out…[because] those three funds that have been trying to drive this down…will flip and go long. I think any smart hedge fund manager is looking for this $1000 level, and they’re just like me—they’re sitting in cash and waiting and licking their lips. If [a washout] comes, they’re going to put the money to work…so I think the buying pressure…is going to be huge.”

 

As a final comment towards this potential and imminent crash, Gary noted that,  “The bottom will be an event—very short and we will very quickly rally back up to test [$1520]…and then I think by [next] summer we’ll already be testing $1800-$1900.”   

 

[Mad Max]

Hi,

 

Saw this on the market bar and grill forum, might be useful for those who want  to learn more about EW.

 

http://www.themarket...7,1417#msg-1417

Thanks. Will have a look at that.

[Argento]

Argento,

 

Is it possible that this is B? and the bottom yesterday was actually the end of A?

Nope, yesterday was end of C and the correction, nice reversal candle on the 5H chart!

 

Viva la bull, went long with this dip and gonna sit on these trades till end of December...Santa rally is on boys!

 

Last night US made a very bullish reversal and busy breaking out to the upside!

 

A

[Sunesis]

evry single share on the Top40 is in green!!!

Viva Le Bull!!!

Now we have to wait for FTSE to open at 10h00, then the party gets going.

 

Tencent is up 4% today.

 

I have to many long positions if i close all of them now. I would have made more than 1000 points without even reaching 41 000 yet.

 

The bulls are back in town.

 

Skep tewyl dit reen !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Viva La Bull          

[gringots]

Argento,

 

Is it possible that this is B? and the bottom yesterday was actually the end of A?

 

[gringots]

Looks like its going to close the gap from yesterday?

 

no position at the moment, to scared I'll catch the top!

 

waiting for a dip...

[gringots]

A, tell us about the waves again...

Hi,

 

Saw this on the market bar and grill forum, might be useful for those who want  to learn more about EW.

 

http://www.themarket...7,1417#msg-1417

[Redeemer]

evry single share on the Top40 is in green!!!

Viva Le Bull!!!

[gringots]

Can someone educate me, what courses this 8:30 market fiasco? Being noticing it for sometimes and never take advantage of it.

Probably just futures open, not always this insane... 200 point gap and 200 point up within 10 minutes!

If you talking about IG maybe its because they bringing there values more inline with the actual market? (I'm guessing I have nothing to back this up)

[betweenlines]

Can someone educate me, what courses this 8:30 market fiasco? Being noticing it for sometimes and never take advantage of it.

[BBW]

It went so fast up and down...my buy order was not triggered....

Those who know, what happens when it does a spike like that? Why? Is it just a taking out of some stop?

[massimo]

Morning Gentlemen

 

What price levels you considering getting long this morning ?

[Sunesis]

Morning, what a good morning.

 

I'm afraid i will not buy the dip today because i have trades in profit already. 

 

Recap on Yellen

 

Janet Yellen Confirmation is a  plus for the Stock Market

 

 As one of the most dovish members of the FOMC, Yellen is widely expected to assert her dovish views on Capitol Hill today. In fact, based on the full copy of her opening statement, which was released in late North America, she is not going to act out of character just to appease her critics. When she speaks before her confirmation hearing today, she will say that the labor market and the economy are performing “far short of potential” with the jobless rate much higher than what they would like to see. She also believes that inflation will run below the Fed’s 2% goal for some time, which implies that Yellen does not share her colleagues concerns about the risks of monetary policy. If Janet Yellen were to lead the central bank, she would favor later versus earlier tapering. She has long been criticized for being soft on inflation but with high unemployment, she can soundly argue that jobs come first.

 

However as we have seen from watching Bernanke’s semi-annual testimonies, being in the hot seat is never easy and investors will be watching carefully to see if she wavers in her views or ends up sounding more moderate under heavy grilling by U.S. Senators. This is the very first time that the mild mannered central banker has testified on Capitol Hill since her low key 2010 Fed vice-chair confirmation. Aside from being a smart and experienced economist, the head of the central bank also needs to be politically savvy. Most speeches by central bank officials are scripted and today we will get a chance to see how she handles herself live in an environment where she could find herself heavily criticized for her soft views on inflation. Her views in general will carry increased importance if she becomes the new Fed Chairman, so she will have to choose her words carefully because her comments on monetary policy could have significant ramifications for U.S. assets. Senator Rand Paul has threatened to hold back the nomination but with 45 other Republicans present, her confirmation is expected to be smooth with few politicians willing to block the confirmation of the first female central bank governor.

 

 

[Plasma]

Ito IGM we are 0.96% up, 384 points. Going to wait for the "opening finger on the screen game" at 0830 to see whether one can get in lower. Otherwise I will be wrong and we might just run up more without some pullback.

Just put in a buy order at 40210

It went so fast up and down...my buy order was not triggered....

[franky]

could happen C , ftse futures  up only 0.2%   ,  300pt gap up on the futures  at 8:30 open could be closed before we head any higher, 5min showing very short term oversold

5min overbought

[franky]

Just put in a buy order at 40210

could happen C , ftse futures  up only 0.2%   ,  300pt gap up on the futures  at 8:30 open could be closed before we head any higher, 5min showing very short term oversold

[Plasma]

Where is L....probably still eating the honey from yesterday's drop...was to busy to post....

[Plasma]

We have had 2 sell off since 25 June rally.

Syria story sell off was about 1300 points from the 27 August top(38900) to 1 September bottom(37650)
Debt deal sell off was about 1700 from the 27 September top (39900) to 9 October bottom(38200)

The current sell off is about 1500 from the 7 november top (41500) to 40 000 current.

If we have to follow the last sell off, we would say around 39800 will be a good area for demand. That will be 1700 points same as debt deal sell off.

Maybe a correction or profit taking. Longs are safer if we consider the 39800 bearer. A close below 39800 will start another trend.

The S&P dropped to 1735 last week, don't know if that was a one day correction because it's back to the 1760-70 areas.
The Dow is still trading above 15675 top.
The ALSI is maybe dropping because of Chinese shares drop. The Heng Seng droppped below 22600 for the 1st time since September 4th

I just keep buying. I will revise my longs if we close below 39800.

So much for a ALSI one day correction.
As i said, a lot of weak bulls were shaken off yesterday.

My trades are back in the money. I closed the long from 39860 last night for 400 points.
We will find a lot of short covering today, for those who chase the markets.

Buying when its falling is a skill, and it takes a lot of mental fitness. That's why i say it separates the man from the boys.

Ito IGM we are 0.96% up, 384 points. Going to wait for the "opening finger on the screen game" at 0830 to see whether one can get in lower. Otherwise I will be wrong and we might just run up more without some pullback.

[delta66]

Buying when its falling is a skill, and it takes a lot of mental fitness.

yes it is.

 

like Buffet said...we all know the saying

[davidp13]

Hi, quick one. Should we be worried a bit about the USD/JPY?