35854 replies to this topic

[K~~]

My plan for the week is to short all the rallys

 

What happened to "Buy the Dip"?

 

What made you change your mind? China numbers were good...

 

K

[Sunesis]

My plan for the week is to short all the rallys

[Sunesis]

 

Granted...but if you want a macro view of where our index is headed follow the Foreign Investor Equity Flows. If you want to know why the taper impacts our market so much, why the R/$  has an impact or why local investors arent as influential as we think they are. QE3 started in September 2012 and by the time that liquidity filtered down to our markets it went from $550 mil in September to over $2000 mil 5 months later.(Track what our index did during that time). Thats investors looking for yield!  Look what happened when Taper was first muted at the end of May/June(8.5% correction on the TOP40. Thats was a outflow of $800mil from peak to trough on talk of a taper. Once taper was quantified and clarified we saw a small reversal and $250mil flowed back in.(Again track what happened from July till now.) Unfortunately foreign capital will always lead our index since the JSE CAP is 37% foreign owned with no moral or social obligation other than to turn a profit. It's literally as simple as a sell signal being generated and a press of a button to pull out funds out of the JSE. The chart shows a sharp down turn in inflows or alternatively a sharp uptake in selling pressure and  this is a leading indicator to me.

 

JJBen is correct. The US is an old economy and is in a whole world of trouble. Why didn't the Fed taper? Because they can't. It would destroy not only the stock market but the real economy. If America can't get growth going with close to zero interest rate ANY interest rate hike would just kill off everything from the stock market to housing, America's holy grail(Houses for every America) The Fed has painted itself into a tight corner and the realisation has just hit that 85Bil in bond purchases achieved absolutely nothing in the past 2 years. (This is not an opinion but an admission in a White Paper the FED did on QE2) But they cant withdraw it either. They know there is still strong headwinds to come particularly from Europe where the next bang is going to come out of portugal and Italy.

All this doesn't mean a thing if you trade intraday but for longer term investors I would be very concerned

 

Yes the flows determine investment. But we have only three shares pulling our ALSI Richemont, Naspers and SAB Miller. This is a problem that shows our other companies are not doing well. I would short retail stocks which have a lot of South Africa presence.

[Moonraker]

Unfortunately chubby is pretty much spot-on there. Kicking the can down the road over and over again until one day ...

 

BIS veteran says global credit excess worse than pre-Lehman

 

The Fed’s Double-Edged Sword

 

Short of moving all to cash, what should a non-trader choose sector wise; eg. Pharma, Vice like SAB, BTI, Rand hedge Prop stocks like RIN 

or NEPI ... let's hear some suggestions.

[Sunesis]

The China PMI news @ 03h45 will be the one to watch.

 

Is a bad number comes, then the markets will correct.

Good number our resource shares will rocket together with the overall market.

 

Plus we also have European PMI's which will be important for global growth.

 

Just keep an eye on the numbers.

[bear catcher]

That's right Jakes but ALSI on IG went north while US was tanking, I just feel we are in the same inverse reaction to other markets, I am burning to add to my short but got burnt in the same situation a few weeks ago. Will see what tomorrow bring, should allso lose our gains after fed but ja as other guys say maybe first see 42000? I will the really **** myself!

[Beorn]

Am I mistaken, or has US given back all its gains after news of no taper?

[Plasma]

I was waiting for this QE ****, US markets tanking and ALSI on IG flying. #*$?,+

A bit strange yes .....

[bear catcher]

I was waiting for this QE ****, US markets tanking and ALSI on IG flying. #*$?,+

[Beorn]

Happy Friday. See you Monday morning. Watch out for the China number @ 03h45

 

 

This video is so disturbing yet so true.

In the end, debt free assets will be the only thing that retains value.

[Sunesis]

Happy Friday. See you Monday morning. Watch out for the China number @ 03h45

 

 

[Beorn]

The IG top40 futures and investing.com differ, which one do you know is right and they follow?

 

This 270 points throughs out the resistance and support lines, and it cost me few times.

 

A

 

Yes, I understand it srews up the charts, but so does a huge gap open like we had on Thursday.

Investing.com shows prices of the Alsi future that is listed on Safex board.

[Argento]

You know off-coarse, that you are talking about using a market maker chart instead of the chart of the instrument that the market makers follow?

The IG top40 futures and investing.com differ, which one do you know is right and they follow?

 

This 270 points throughs out the resistance and support lines, and it cost me few times.

 

A

[Sunesis]

Bought the dip 

[Beorn]

Think the next week is going to be pretty boring...our VIX is at low levels!

 

Can anybody please advise a really good site (no matter paying a fee), other than IG and investing.com for using TOP40 charting?

 

If you are using investing.com you should know by now it moves about 270 points up with every futures-close out and that does not fit well with keeping track of uptrend lines and resistance/support levels, just saying...

 

Thanks in advance

 

A

 

You know off-coarse, that you are talking about using a market maker chart instead of the chart of the instrument that the market makers follow?

[Beorn]

I'm Short @ 40030

 

Taken some profit @ 39850

[Argento]

Think the next week is going to be pretty boring...our VIX is at low levels!

 

Can anybody please advise a really good site (no matter paying a fee), other than IG and investing.com for using TOP40 charting?

 

If you are using investing.com you should know by now it moves about 270 points up with every futures-close out and that does not fit well with keeping track of uptrend lines and resistance/support levels, just saying...

 

Thanks in advance

 

A

Edited by Argento, 20 September 2013 - 01:28 PM.

[Sunesis]

My favorite Index. Baltric Dry Index

 

I use this index to see where the economy is going.

 

 

World shipping rates as measured by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) are up about 33% since  the end of August.

 

BDI measures shipping rates for dry bulk cargoes such as grain, coal and iron ore and is often seen as a leading indicator of economic  activity.

 

The index posted an all-time high  near 12,000 in May of Y 2008 and has never gotten back to that number, it stands at 1,860 today, more than  twice its reading just 12 months ago.

 

If prices had to go back to all time highs, that would mean ALSI,S&P,DJIA,FTSE still have a long way to go.

 

And shipping and transport companies will make a lot of cash. Just take a look at how Grindrod has been performing. Grindrod was one the best companies in South Africa in the boom years of 2004-2006.

[Sunesis]

The ONLY thing that has been saving their backsides for the last 30 years is productivity. That way you can have inflation of 1-2%, GDP growth above  that and salary increases/debt also above inflation.

 

But the you-know-what will hit the fan for future generations to come. Baby boomers are retiring at a rate of 10 000/day. This is why unemployment in the US is "coming down". The number of people active in the workforce is reducing, not unemployment. So add 15 Million Mexicans (the majority doing low-income work), Obama-care and drawn-out wars, and you will see why the US is seen as old economy.

 

The growth nodes for the world will be China (replacing US), Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, South Korea and hopefully Africa.

You forgot Nigeria replacing South Africa

[JJBen]

Prepair your self, the world is headed for a financial melt down...

 The biggest mountain of debt can be found in the United States.
30 years ago, the national debt was a little bit above a trillion dollars.
At this point, the U.S. already has more government debt per capita than Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland or Spain. And since Barack Obama entered the White House, the debt to GDP level has soared to unprecedented heights.

The ONLY thing that has been saving their backsides for the last 30 years is productivity. That way you can have inflation of 1-2%, GDP growth above  that and salary increases/debt also above inflation.

 

But the you-know-what will hit the fan for future generations to come. Baby boomers are retiring at a rate of 10 000/day. This is why unemployment in the US is "coming down". The number of people active in the workforce is reducing, not unemployment. So add 15 Million Mexicans (the majority doing low-income work), Obama-care and drawn-out wars, and you will see why the US is seen as old economy.

 

The growth nodes for the world will be China (replacing US), Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, South Korea and hopefully Africa.